A couple of months ago I wrote a diary about how Iowa impacts New Hampshire. As a continuation of this work, I researched how often candidates who lead in New Hampshire at this point go on to win. To my shock in the 10 contested New Hampshire priamries since 1980, the leader at this point in the cycle has only won four times!!!
The table below summarizes my research
This table presents the information for both Iowa and New Hampshire. As it shows, the only candidates who lead New Hampshire at this point and went on to win were Reagan in 1980, Bush in 1988, and Gore and Bush in 2000. But even this underestimates how unfriendly New Hampshire has been to its front runners. In fact, in 8 of 10 New Hampshire primaries, the NH front runner has trailed in New Hampshire polling after Iowa.
Let's take two specific cases where the front runner went on to win.
1980
On September 30th, Ronald Reagan led George Bush in New Hampshire by whopping 42 points (50-8). In 1980 Bush upset Reagan 32-30 in Iowa. This transformed the race. In a poll taken 3 days (January 29) after New Hampshire, Bush took a 9 point lead (45-36) - a whopping 52 point swing. In 1980 New Hampshire was a full month after Iowa, and Reagan had time to re-take the lead - which he did in a poll taken February 22-23.
The point here is twofold:
*The compression of the schedule that leaves little time between Iowa and New Hampshire makes an upset in New Hampshire more likely, not less likely.
*Iowa rendered all New Hampshire polling useless.
1988
Bush had a consistent lead in New Hampshire. On November 19th he led Dole by 13 in a WNEV poll, and as late as January 25-30 he led Dole by 21 points in a New York Times Poll. When Bush finished third in Iowa, however, the New Hampshire race was transformed. In a Boston Globe Poll taken the following Thursday/Friday, Dole had taken a 3 point lead. Iowa had created a massive 24 point swing in New Hampshire in 3 days. Ultimately, Bush fought back and won, but did not re-take the lead until Monday. Again, the point here is that had the race been run under the existing primary schedule, Dole would have won New Hampshire.