In his editorial today, WIlliam Safire has created an
Office Pool, 2005. He askes his readers to ponder 12 issue questions/predictions for 2005 (his choosing) and offers multiple choice answers for each...
I'll list the questions below and my own responses....
1. The Oscar for Best Picture goes to: (a) Robert Zemeckis's "The Polar Express"; (b) Michael Mann's "Collateral"; (c) David Mamet's "Spartan"; (d) Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby" (to win this choice, a trifecta is needed with Best Director and Best Actor as well); (e) Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" (from Academy members seeking vengeance).
Obvious from his list is Fahrenheit 9/11, but I might offer Sideways
2. Political scandals will include: (a) Senator Pat Roberts's cover-up of Senate Intelligence ineptitude in its suppressed U.S.S. Cole report; (b) association of a Kofi Annan family member with the selection of a U.N. oil-for-food official; (c) F.B.I. Director Robert Mueller's two-year campaign of entrapment and harassment of the leading U.S. pro-Israel group; (d) pan-Arabist leaders' conspiracy of silence in the genocide of African Muslims in Darfur.
This one is loaded. I hate his slanted choices....My choice would be something to do with Bush's mental state deteriorating to the point where they can't hide it anymore and there is a leak from his medical staff.
3. The national intelligence director will be: (a) the Pentagon's Paul Wolfowitz; (b) C.I.A. chief Porter Goss; (c) retired Gen. Tommy Franks; (d) 9/11 interrogator Richard ("Is it not a fact") Ben-Veniste; (e) ex-Democratic Senator Chuck Robb.
WOLFOWITZ!!!!!!!!????????? God save us.
4. Iraqis will see the: (a) election of Ayad Allawi and progress on the bumpy road to democracy; (b) comeback of Ahmad Chalabi dreaded by the C.I.A.; (c) insurgency's sudden collapse with the capture of bin Laden and killing of Zarqawi; (d) beginning of the U.S. troop drawdown; (e) judgment of not guilty in Saddam's trial; (f) bloody Shiite-Sunni civil war and Kurds' independence.
Note his first five choices...these guys never give an inch. At least he offers (f)....which is where the incompetent BushCO leadership will take us and Iraq.
5. The sleeper nonfiction best seller will be: (a) "The Tender Bar" by J. P. Moehringer; (b) "Becoming Justice Blackmun" by Linda Greenhouse; (c) Robert O'Harrow Jr.'s "No Place to Hide"; (d) Arch Puddington's biography of "Lane Kirkland, Champion of American Labor"; (e) "The Ethical Brain" by Michael Gazzaniga; (f) "Speaking Freely" by the press defender Floyd Abrams; (g) "Smashed" by Koren Zailckas.
It will be a book from an exCIA operative who will present the documents and proof of the madness within the White House. OR...a tell all by a gay lover of Karl Rove.
6. The novel surprise will be: (a) Nick Arvin's "Articles of War"; (b) Elizabeth Gaffney's "Metropolis"; (c) Bret Easton Ellis's "Lunar Park"; (d) Julie Baumgold's "The Diamond" (dictated by Napoleon).
How about a work of fiction by John Ashcroft...about a former AG who also writes music and is...well, it's a murder mystry at heart.
7. Senate Democrats will: (a) not dig in their heels over elevating Antonin Scalia to chief justice if Bush appoints a centrist as a new associate justice; (b) by filibustering all strongly conservative nominees, bring on the G.O.P. "nuclear option" of changing Senate rules to require only a simple majority for confirmation; (c) drop the abortion litmus test but otherwise fight all right-wing judges.
Note how in (b) he frames it that the Dems will leave the poor rethugs no choice but to go nuclear because they just, well, get in the way. I happen to think the Dems are going to show some spine by voting Dean as the chair of the DNC and politics is going to get very local and we will play a game they aren't used to playing.
8. The Scalia court will decide: (a) to strike down federal sentencing guidelines, producing tumult in criminal justice; (b) to uphold governmental Ten Commandments displays as harmless "ceremonial deism"; (c) to strike a blow for the free flow of booze by ruling that states cannot prevent the shipment of wines produced in one state to consumers in another state.
Note he assumes it will be a Scalia court. If that happens, God knows what he will do. Again, save us all.
9. Republicans in Congress will remind President Bush of his lame-duckiness by defeating his proposal for: (a) personal retirement accounts within Social Security; (b) registering illegal immigrants; (c) making his tax cuts permanent; (d) a ticket to Mars.
Here's a big vote for all of the above and then some.
10. Democrats will reverse their electoral fortunes by: (a) moving right by insisting on budget reduction; (b) moving left by advocating more social spending and higher taxes; (c) staying centered globally as muscular alliance-builders; (d) moving upward by getting religion; (e) moving down South and out Midwest for national candidates.
See number 7.
11. The economy will: (a) boom without inflation as oil sinks to $30/bbl , the Iraq war winds down and the Sharon-Abbas peace deal takes shape; (b) tank as Asia stops lending us money; (c) march up to a 13,000 Dow, as somewhat prematurely predicted in this office pool last year.
My borrowed money is on (b.)
12. The medical breakthrough will be: (a) a modified vaccine to treat Alzheimer's; (b) a drug to aid recovery from brain injuries like strokes; (c) a stem-cell (not necessarily embryonic) treatment for heart diseases; (d) nanotechnologies to detect cancer cells early; (e) sequencing the human influenza genome to help prevent epidemics of new strains of Asian flu; (f) a drug that both slows prostate cancer and treats male baldness (a real challenge to ad copywriters).
Drug companies will research and market a drug that will make Americans want to take more drugs.
Safire's Picks:
My picks: 1 (d); 2 (all); 3 (c); 4 (a); 5 (b); 6 (d); 7 (a); 8 (all); 9 (b); 10 (d); 11 (a); 12 (all).
Any takers? How about we open the floor to any predictions?