This seems, at first blush, like small, local news:
In a move widely anticipated ever since she crossed party lines to endorse Ed Rendell for governor, state Treasurer Barbara Hafer announced yesterday she had switched her affiliation to the Democratic Party.
In practical terms, it means the Dems have a new, electorally proven frontrunner with which to target Sen. "man on dog" Santorum in 2006. Someone who can speak directly to what the far-right is doing to the country ("It drove me from the Republican Party")
Her defection, which Hafer had all but promised while speaking at a political gathering three weeks ago in New York, will allow her to pursue a possible run against U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a conservative Republican, in 2006. Hafer's eight-year run as treasurer expires in January 2005.
"The governor has talked to me about running against Rick Santorum, but I haven't made a decision yet," Hafer, 60, said yesterday in a telephone interview from her home in Saltsburg, Indiana County. "I'll be meeting with a lot of Democrats over the next few months to see what they think. We'll see."
In strategic terms, this bodes well for the future of Pennsylvania's Democratic Party. Once as pathetic as Ohio's Democratic establishment, the PA edition was given a solid jolt by the surprise ascendency of Gov. Ed Rendell.
In addition to winning the governorship, Rendell has solidified his control over the party apparatus, clearing the field for Rep. Hoeffel's Senatorial bid and orchestrating Hafer's defection. The Attorney General's office is now the only statewide constitutional office in Republican hands.
Specter's problems and Hafer's defection may well put PA on the path to Illinois- and California-style transformation into a solid Dem state. In addition to the two Senate seats, the other hurdle is the state legislature, which is in Republican hands (PA Senate 29R-21D; PA House 108R-94D), and will likely remain so until the next redistricting bout.
One defection does not make a trend, but politicians have a finely tuned sense of self-preservation. It's what drove Democrats like Shelby and Campbell to switch parties when trends in their states dictated they do so. Hopefully we are seeing the same thing happen in PA.
As for the 2004 Senate race, Hoeffel is a hopeless long-shot against Sen. Specter. However, Rep. Toomey is challenging Specter in their party's primary and looks increasingly likely to pull the upset. His Meetup numbers are jumpin', his fundraising is poppin' and his grassroots are pumpin' as he taps into a wingnut community frustrated with Specter's "moderate" creds. At this early point, I would give Toomey the slight edge over Specter.
And Toomey is hard right, making him the underdog against the moderate Hoeffel.