I used to say the only endorsements that mattered were Gore and the two Clintons. I forgot all about Carter.
As discussed in this diary, Dean will travel to Georgia the day before the Iowa caucuses for a joint appearance with Carter. The implication is obvious -- Carter will announce his endorsement of Dean.
So here are some arguments for and against this possibility:
For
- Iowa is now a frenzy of campaign activity. Dean will surrender almost a full day of critical campaigning on Caucus' eve in order to meet with Carter. There would have to be a good reason for that trip, and it would have to be more than, "I like Dean. I like all the candidates. May the best man win."
- Trippi talked about this trip on Crossfire. The campaign can dampen expectations all it wants (and it has), but fact is people will be looking for an endorsement. If Dean doesn't get it, it'll be a net negative. Lots of expectations shattered, and once again, the loss of valuable campaign time.
- The Dean campaign has shown nothing if not brilliant timing in its endorsement schedule. It may have all been a function of luck (we'll find out in the post-mortem books), but this one would be the Mother of Perfect Timing. We're talking Dean picking up Carter in Georgia and heading back to Iowa together. Iowans would wake up Caucus morning with pictures of Dean and Carter gracing their newspapers' front page, top of the fold.
Against- Former presidents abide by an unwritten rule forbidding them from endorsing candidates in their parties' primaries.
- If Carter endorses Dean, wouldn't that put pressure on Bill Clinton to endorse Clark, opening up a rift in the party? (The Clintonistas versus everyone else.)
- Carter has formerly said he didn't plan on making an endorsement (clearly keeping that "unwritten rule" in mind).
So what will it be? Carter could always give Dean a non-endorsement endorsement. You know the ones -- praising Dean to high heaven without saying the words "I endorse". But that would preclude the joint campaign swing through Iowa. And would the Dean camp surrender precious time to a minor (if that) story?
I'll say one thing about this whole new plot twist -- it's adding to the suspense level. I don't know how much more of this I can take!