Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/3-6. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?
Young (R) 42
Berkowitz (D) 49
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
Stevens (R) 41
Begich (D) 47
Wow, wow, wow. Berkowitz is already running hard, and it's clear his will be a top pickup opportunity as Young is weighed down with his corruption.
But those Senate numbers are shocking, as clearly the bribery and corruption legal cases currently creeping closer to Stevens (who is near a possible indictment) take their toll on his popularity. Begich won't announce any candidacy until sometime between March and May. But if he bows out of the race, he'll do so before the end of the year. So if we hear nothing in the next three weeks, we're home free and Republicans will face yet another top-tier battle in their fight to limit their losses.
Full results below the fold.
ALASKA POLL RESULTS - DECEMBER 2007
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from December 3 through December
6, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 292 (49%)
Women 308 (51%)
Democrats 114 (19%)
Republicans 198 (33%)
Independents/Other 288 (48%)
18-29 96 (16%)
30-44 210 (35%)
45-59 204 (34%)
60+ 90 (15%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 28% 11% 7% 37%
MEN 16% 26% 13% 9% 36%
WOMEN 18% 30% 9% 5% 38%
DEMOCRATS 33% 43% 5% 3% 16%
REPUBLICANS 5% 14% 19% 11% 51%
INDEPENDENTS 19% 31% 8% 6% 36%
18-29 20% 31% 8% 4% 37%
30-44 15% 27% 13% 8% 37%
45-59 19% 29% 9% 7% 36%
60+ 14% 25% 15% 9% 37%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 27% 33% 21% 6%
MEN 14% 30% 30% 20% 6%
WOMEN 12% 24% 36% 22% 6%
DEMOCRATS 6% 9% 49% 29% 7%
REPUBLICANS 20% 42% 19% 13% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 24% 36% 23% 5%
18-29 9% 24% 36% 24% 7%
30-44 15% 29% 31% 19% 6%
45-59 12% 25% 34% 23% 6%
60+ 16% 30% 30% 18% 6%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 28% 12% 7% 33%
MEN 18% 26% 12% 7% 34%
WOMEN 22% 30% 10% 6% 32%
DEMOCRATS 32% 38% 6% 3% 21%
REPUBLICANS 11% 22% 18% 11% 38%
INDEPENDENTS 22% 29% 10% 6% 33%
18-29 24% 31% 9% 4% 32%
30-44 18% 2% 14% 9% 33%
45-59 22% 30% 10% 5% 33%
60+ 17% 25% 15% 10% 33%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 27% 35% 23% 3%
MEN 14% 31% 33% 21% 1%
WOMEN 10% 23% 37% 25% 5%
DEMOCRATS 6% 15% 49% 27% 3%
REPUBLICANS 19% 37% 23% 18% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 25% 38% 25% 2%
18-29 9% 23% 39% 27% 2%
30-44 14% 30% 33% 20% 3%
45-59 10% 24% 37% 26% 3%
60+ 15% 31% 31% 19% 4%
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QUESTION: If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?
YOUNG BERKOWITZ UNDECIDED
ALL 42% 49% 9%
MEN 46% 46% 8%
WOMEN 38% 52% 10%
DEMOCRATS 8% 83% 9%
REPUBLICANS 72% 18% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 57% 8%
18-29 38% 52% 10%
30-44 45% 45% 8%
45-59 40% 40% 10%
60+ 46% 46% 8%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
STEVENS BEGICH UNDECIDED
ALL 41% 47% 12%
MEN 46% 43% 11%
WOMEN 36% 51% 13%
DEMOCRATS 7% 81% 12%
REPUBLICANS 81% 7% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 55% 10%
18-29 37% 51% 12%
30-44 44% 45% 11%
45-59 39% 48% 13%
60+ 44% 44% 12%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 42% 57% 1%
MEN 46% 53% 1%
WOMEN 38% 61% 1%
DEMOCRATS 7% 93% 0%
REPUBLICANS 75% 24% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 65% 1%
18-29 39% 60% 1%
30-44 44% 55% 1%
45-59 41% 58% 1%
60+ 45% 53% 2%