Skip to main content

SurveyUSA has unleashed a torrent of polling today, with releases from five midwestern states. Two were Kerry states in 2004 (Minnesota and Wisconsin), while three went to George W. Bush in 2004 (Iowa, Ohio, and Missouri).

An earlier diarist pointed out the Iowa polls as evidence of Barack Obama's greater electability in the general. Indeed, of the five, Iowa is far and away the best state in which to make the case.

However, the other four are much more mixed. Point of clarification: the previous diarist was not cherry-picking, Iowa was the only SUSA poll released at the time. Follow me below the fold for the numbers.

Clinton ahead of Giuliani 47-42, Huckabee 46-45, Romney 48-45, trails McCain 45-46.

Obama ahead of Giuliani 55-36, Huckabee 52-39, Romney 51-39, McCain 51-39.

Clinton ahead of Giuliani 53-40, Huckabee 53-41, Romney 58-36, McCain 51-43.

Obama ahead of Huckabee 47-42, Romney 48-42, trails Giuliani 44-48, McCain 41-50.

Clinton ahead of Giuliani 49-43, Huckabee 49-47, Romney 51-41, McCain 50-46.

Obama ahead of Giuliani 47-42, Romney 49-39, McCain 47-44, trails Huckabee 47-49.

Clinton ahead of Giuliani 49-40, Huckabee 51-39, Romney 51-40, tied w/McCain 45-45.

Obama ahead of Huckabee 43-42, Romney 43-42, trails Giuliani 40-46, McCain 38-47.

Clinton ahead of Giuliani 45-42, Huckabee 49-40, Romney 47-42, trails McCain 42-49.

Obama ahead of Giuliani 48-40, Huckabee 52-36, Romney 53-35, McCain 46-44.


It means, in short, that the electability argument is a helluva hard one to make, for either side. Obama is considerably stronger than Hillary Clinton in Iowa and Wisconsin. His average lead in those states exceeds ten points, while hers are two and two-and-a-half points, respectively.

However, she has a clear edge in electability in Minnesota and the critical battleground of Ohio, a pair of states where Obama only wins two out of four trial heats.

Missouri is essentially a wash, with the slightest edge to Clinton based on her winning all four trial heats (Obama, curiously, loses to Huckabee), and a slight edge on the average lead (5.5 to 4.0).

The best news?

In the 40 trial heats listed, the Democrats lead in 32 of them, while losing in only seven (one is tied).

Above all else, we would do well to remember that statistic most of all. ANY DEMOCRAT in the lead pack is electable, provided we support them and don't shoot ourselves in the foot.

(Final caveat: Yes, Edwards supporters, I feel your pain. SUSA did not poll him in this set of trial heats. The media's insistence on defining the GOP primary as an open race, while defining the Democratic race as a two-man race, is getting to be a little annoying.)

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:56 AM PST.


How Many Of The Five States Polled By SurveyUSA Will Be Won By The Eventual Dem Nominee?

4%7 votes
0%1 votes
2%4 votes
11%17 votes
30%43 votes
49%70 votes

| 142 votes | Vote | Results

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site