(Cross posted at E Pluribus Unum)
"Those who live by the crystal ball eat broken glass."
---- Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Bank economist, 2004.
I'm not much of one to make predictions, but I do like looking at every possible angle. So with that in mind, I thought I'd consolidate a couple of the more intriguing pieces of electoral analysis for you today. They're pretty brief, but they take a look at the field the same way I might.
For the Democrats:
You don't need me to tell you that Iowa is close. It could be taken by any of the top tier Dems. Blitz boy, in an excellent diary that I'm summarizing here, has the Democratic race looking like this:
On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan has it this way:
- First off, IF Romney wins Iowa, THEN he'll win NH and MI and will probably be the nominee.
- However, IF Huckabee wins Iowa AND IF McCain's recent progress in NH is for real and he wins there, THEN Romney is on life-support. At that point, McCain has a real chance at the nomination by becoming the anti-Huckabee, especially if Thompson drops out and endorses him before SC. However, IF Huckabee wins SC, THEN Huckabee has the inside track.
- In fact, IF Huck wins Iowa AND IF Romney wins NH, THEN its curtains for everyone else and it will be a two man sprint to the finish: Mitt vs. Huck.
Summary observations on the rest of the field:
- Giuliani is close to toast. He'll lose Iowa and NH, then MI and SC. Even now, his firewall in Florida is crumbling. By Super Tuesday, IF he is 0-5, THEN it's over for him.
- Same for Thompson. He might have a good showing in Iowa (IF Romney and Huckabee rip each other apart), but he probably won't win there. He will also not win NH (where he is polling behind Ron Paul). Nor will he win in MI. After all that, he may not even make it to SC (where he is polling #3 behind Romney and Huckabee), let alone win it. In fact, IF he flops in Iowa, THEN he'll drop out and endorse McCain (see above).
So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds, according to Pat Buchanan:
- Giuliani: 20-1
- Thompson: 20-1
- McCain: 6-1
- Romney: 3-2
- Huckabee: ?? Buchanan isn't taking bets on Huck, although he does see him likely finishing in the top two.
What do you think?