One of the great advantages that Barack Obama has in the race for Iowa is the shared border between Illinois and Iowa. That border should make it a cake walk for Barack Obama to take the Iowa caucuses on January 3. Iowa has a long history of supporting favorite sons from Iowa and neighboring states. Let’s review the history and see why it is so advantageous for Barack Obama.
First, let’s have a gander at the history of wins by the hometown boys. In 1984, Walter Mondale won the caucus. Mondale, of course, is a resident of Minnesota, a state that borders Iowa. In 1988, Iowa went for Dick Gephardt from neighboring Missouri. Tom Harkin, the Democratic senator from Iowa, won the caucuses in 1992.
In 1976, 1980, 1996, and 2000, there were no candidates from either Iowa or neighboring states. In 1976, an uncommitted slate actually won the night. In 1980, the only candidates were the incumbent president and a New Englander, and Iowa went for the incumbent president. In 1996, Iowa again chose the incumbent president (who ran unopposed.) In 2000, it selected the incumbent vice president against a son of New Jersey.
There is actually only one exception to the rule. In 2004, Dick Gephardt from neighboring Missouri came in fourth at 11 percent after Kerry, Edwards, and Dean. Gephardt, of course, withdrew from the race.
Why will Barack Obama win? Because he can command busloads of volunteers from Chicago and other points in Illinois who will work to turnout en masse Obama supporters across the state. These workers added to the Iowans who are volunteering and Obama supporters from across the country should be able to muster forces greatly in excess of Hillary or Edwards. We should not forget that a considerable number of Illinois youth go to college in Iowa and are able to participate legally in the vote there, parts of Iowa in Illinois TV and radio media zones, and the greater amount of time Obama has spent in Iowa. Moreover, in recent weeks, many polls have shown Obama has an advantage.
Finally, we all would expect that Hillary would be horrifically crippled were the first in the nation voters to caucus in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, or Connecticut, and she failed to turn out a tremendous victory. Since Obama is essentially the favorite son in Iowa in the way that Hillary is something of a favorite daughter in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, anything less than victory in Iowa for Obama would be devastating. (Polls show Hillary leads in each of her neighboring states by large margins.)
I don’t know how Barack Obama can lose in Iowa.