With IA coming up Thursday and NH not far behind, we poll junkies wanna know who's up and who's down (and who is just plain even...).
But is it helpful to poll during the holidays? Mark Blumenthal asked that question of scores of pollsters, while Charles Franklin looks at pollster variation in Iowa, including a very nice discussion of who the ARG poll favors, as an illustrative example of what's called 'house effect'. Both stories should be read in full for greatest appreciation.
The last two ARG polls show shifts of - 3 and +4 points for McCain and Romney respectively, and a single point difference for Giuliani. (And a - 5 and +6 for Huckabee and Paul.) For the Dems the shifts were +5, - 6 and +2 for Clinton, Obama and Edwards respecively.
As Mark Blumenthal notes, the reasons for these discrepancies are largely matters of speculation. But the consistency of the ARG house effects are pretty clear in these data. The ARG results currently stand on the same side as their long term house effects: above trend for Clinton, Giuliani and McCain, and below trend for Obama, Edwards and Romney. Compared to other pollsters, these house effects for ARG appear to be the largest of any polling firm in Iowa.
So, take your Iowa polls with a grain of salt, but enjoy them nonetheless. It's what we political junkies live for.