U.S. and Iraqi officials are considering
difficult-to-swallow ideas -- including amnesties for their enemies -- as they look for ways to end the country's rampant insurgency and isolate extremists wanting to start a civil war.
Obviously this is not a sign of strength.
Whether it is the failure to create an Iraqi army that doesn't sympathize with the insurgents, or the inability to deconstruct the ethnic militias, we simply don't have much going for us.
But the biggest problem, the Mother of All the Potential Problems in Iraq, is the inability to bring the Sunnis into the new government. That is what this new development is about.
Negotiations have just begun between U.S. and Iraqi officials on drafting an amnesty policy, which would reach out to Iraqi militants fighting U.S. forces, say officials in both the Iraqi and American governments.
But foreign extremists like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, responsible for Iraq's bloodiest attacks, would not be offered any amnesty, the Iraqi and U.S. authorities told The Associated Press in recent days.
The amnesty proposal is seen as a key weapon to split the insurgency between Iraqi and non-Iraqi lines and further alienate foreign fighters like al-Zarqawi.
Iraq's minister for national security said Sunday an amnesty policy is being drawn up, but he said insurgent groups first must do more to convince authorities they are serious about making peace.
"Those who had committed homicides and caused blood shedding for the innocents will be excluded from this amnesty," said the minister, Abdul Karim al-Inizi. "Talking about issuing an amnesty soon is premature as this depends on whether the insurgents want to take a step forward."
On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said the Iraqis will have the final say on who might receive amnesty, declining to say whether he would protest amnesty for Iraqis who had killed American soldiers.
[...]
Some Sunni leaders have said they have been meeting with associates of anti-U.S. militant groups to try to persuade them to lay down their arms.
The diplomatic efforts are being driven by a growing realization that military force alone can't end the insurgency.
[...]
During the past two weeks, leaders from Iraq's Sunni and Shiite communities announced they have been meeting with insurgent groups to try get them to lay down their arms.
"Over the past six months, we have been in touch with people representing about 80 percent of the Iraqi resistance in different parts of the country, who are asking how can we guarantee anything positive from the other side," said legislator Salih al-Mutlak, leader of a Sunni Arab umbrella group.
Al-Mutlak said Iraqi insurgents have demands of their own: They want guarantees that attacks against Sunni cities will stop; that thousands of detainees will be released from U.S.-run prisons; and -- most importantly -- that the U.S.-led occupation will end.
"They want to reach an agreement, but would like to see evidence that the other side is really positive," al-Mutlak said.
Only today top military brass admitted that the war can't be won by bullets alone. This is not welcome news to the 101st Fighting Keyboardists.
I'm guessing that the recent poll shows Vietnam Era-like support for the war had something to do with this.
Or maybe it's the falling recruitment numbers that pushed them to this.
Or maybe it's the Republican congressmen who are speaking out against the war.
Or possibly it's the never-ending casualties that finally convinced them to try something new.
In the end, reality wins over fantasy every time.
So what will the rebels ask for? There are a few guesses. But nothing will happen with these talks if American hardliners get their way and exclude insurgents who killed Americans. If Bush allows an amnesty for them, then he'll basically have to admit that we aren't winning the war. That won't go over well with his base of support.
The neocons have trapped themselves into a no-win situation when it comes to domestic politics. However, for the future of Iraq, this is a development that must happen. Without bringing in Iraqi Sunni Nationalists then there can be no peace. Eventually this is going to happen, and the only question is how many people will have to die before it happens?