Why do I have this title? Let me count the ways.
The Supreme Court said the map must be redrawn due to voting rights problems in CD 23. But once you start moving voters around there are potentially up to 4 districts --- CD 23, 28, 21 and 25 THAT may have to be redrawn because of deficiencies in minority representation as defined in the Voting Rights Act.
The extension of the Voting Rights Act could be done in this session but it doesn't have to happen until the next session in the new Congress.
If there was no Voting Rights Act, SCOTUS would have no grounds to say that these maps must be redrawn.
What could happen depends upon whether the lines have to be redone before or after the 2006 election.
So...depending upon when in the election cycle and who gets to redraw the map or maps, more Democrats may get elected. If Cuellar challenges Bonilla than Rodriguez may have a shot. I am no computer gerrymandering expert....but if Democrats could get back some seats, Republicans will decide to fight against that tooth and nail. Why spend your valuable time and energy trying to run the government well, when you can spend it trying to tear Dems to shreds?
If they think under this ruling that they can keep the map the same or even get rid of Democrat Lloyd Doggett then they will rush to redraw the lines now under the color of minority representation fairness. The Dems should fight them.
Redoing the lines could be done by a court or the legislature... but in which cycle? Would there be more Dems in the Texas legislature in the next session? Texas experts could try to answer that. Would a Texas court be friendly or fair to Dems.? I think not, but you don't know.
However...the big however is if the Republicans think that having to redraw the lines of these (potentially) 4 districts means that they will lose seats to the Democrats and it's after the 2006 election and they have an even narrower majority than they have now....THEN they will take the new maps to court and NOT REAUTHORIZE THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.
That's why I think this could redound not to our benefit. This is what happens when you neglect for too long institutional and infrastructural needs of party building. We have only fought them inisolated places, wehad to fight them everywhere.
I still damn the the Democratic Texas State Senator who returned from Arizona while the Dems were trying to wait out the session so that they didn't have time to redraw the map. He was trying to maintain civility...hah...he was just gulled. But that is split milk..
The Republicans can almost always squeeze lemonade out of lemons.
http://www.offthekuff.com/...
UPDATE: From the Statesman:
Redrawing [CD23] will force nearby District 25, the Austin-to-Mexico district held by Democrat Lloyd Doggett of Austin, to be redrawn, according to the court opinion.
Experts were still poring over the complicated 100-page opinion to determine how Texas will have to remedy the deficiencies.
And from BOR:
The three-judge panel will have the responsibility of deciding what to do with the redistricting map. The first decision is when they redraw the map for -- this election cycle, or the next. The second decision, then, is whether they will redraw the map themselves, and accept three maps from both Democrats and Republicans, OR whether they kick it back to the Texas Legislature for them to redraw the lines during the 80th Regular Session starting in January.
Exactly how far the dominoes fall, we'll have to wait and see. I'd imagine that CD 23, 28, 21, and 25 will have to be redrawn. As we wait to get more analysis, you can play around with an interactive Congressional map of Texas. Click on the "U.S. Congressional Districts" link to get to the map.