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Bumped -- kos)
The rumors are true. This AM's Q-poll:
Momentum for Ned Lamont, the anti-war Connecticut U.S. Senate candidate, increases as he rolls to a 54 - 41 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 51 - 47 percent Lamont lead among likely Democratic primary voters in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 5 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, but 85 percent of voters say their mind is made up.
Among Lamont supporters, 65 percent say their vote is mainly against Lieberman.
Lieberman's support for the war in Iraq is the main reason they are voting for the challenger, 44 percent of Lamont voters say, with 50 percent who say the war is one of the reasons.
Those are the numbers. The text is pretty clear, too.
"Sen. Lieberman's campaign bus seems to be stuck in reverse. Despite visits from former President Bill Clinton and other big name Democrats, Lieberman has not been able to stem the tide to Lamont," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
"The incumbent has just five days to turn this race around, but never count out a veteran with his experience."
Some notes about summer polling:
- while the numbers look good for Lamont, polling numbers do not measure turnout or intensity
- there's still a relatively light turnout expected (it's August, people are on vacation), making polls even more unpredictable
- it ain't over 'till it's over, or the fat lady sings, or Mariano takes the mound, or whatever
- GOTV beats good intentions every time
Having said that, Lamont's camp is liking these numbers more than Lieberman's people. Joe has every right to work as hard as he can betweeen now and next Tuesday - and then, for the good of the party, if these numbers hold up he should reconsider his ill-conceived bid for another term, which has lost him support from Nutmeggers, and respect the voice of CT Democrats. Had he done so from the beginning, these numbers wouldn't look like this.
It's the war, but more people say "that's just one reason" than say "it's the only reason". Now, if you lived in CT, you'd know that. I expect the national press to figure that out in a year or so, but you folks know better.
Also,
In the Democratic primary for Governor, New Haven Mayor John DeStefano leads Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy 48 - 38 percent among likely voters, with 13 percent undecided. This compares to a 52 - 32 percent DeStefano lead July 20.
In this latest survey, 36 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who chose a candidate say they still might change their mind.
Update [2006-8-3 8:40:57 by DemFromCT]:: Important election update from the Stamford Advocate:
Colbert's Offer Fails To Lure Lieberman Onto TV Show. Hat tip to ekeithj.