I have been doing some thinking about the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that 65%-85% of these will go for the challenger (assuming they vote at all). But the question is who are these undecideds? I break them down into four categories:
- Bush Bad- Kerry-? ("Bad Bush") These undecideds think Bush has done a terrible job, but don't know enough about Kerry. I think most of these will move to Kerry by the election (if they haven't already).
- Bush Bad/Good- Kerry-? ("Split Bush") These undecideds think Bush has done a terrible job running the country, but believe he has been a decisive leader in the war on terror (crazy as that sounds). They have had doubts about Kerry's war on terror plans, although he looks somewhat better to them after the debates.
- Bush- Bad Kerry- Bad ("Bad/Bad") This crowd thinks both candidates are liars. I doubt Kerry convined too many of them. I have encountered a number of these types in my phone banking: most say they aren't voting and often describe both candidates in expletives.
- Bush - ? Kerry-? ("?/?") These folks have paid no attention to the election whatsoever. They were probably too busy watching tabloid tv. They did not watch the debates and probably won't vote.
Now my assessment: Bad/Bad and ?/? probably won't vote at all, or will likely split if they do vote. The question is, who are more prevalent amount the undecideds: Bad Bush undecideds or Split Bush undecideds?
I think the Bad Bush undecideds will likely break for Kerry 80-20 (or greater). But the Split Bush undecideds really scare me. If Bin Laden is caught, or a terrorist attack is "thwarted" this crowd will almost certainly back Shrub. Even if the terror alert is raised, they might give Bush their vote. I am sure Rove and Co. know this, and probably have something up their sleave.
Please vote in the poll below, and give me lots of feedback. I am sure many of you have a lot more information on this topic than I. Please rate this highly, because I think it is an issue that merits discussion.