Just watched today's Meet the Press.
Roger Simon reported that the Dean campaign (I assume this means Trippi) say they are confident of winning IA as long as turnout is under 135,000.
My math calculates this as meaning he thinks there are going to be 40,000 Dean caucusers Monday night.
I have a good amount of confidence in Trippi's ability to accurately count in this situation.
Since Dean isn't going to get any late-breakers or undecideds, it's all about that turnout number. If it's 120,000, Dean probably wins. If it's 160,000, Dean probably comes in 3rd.