A followup to yesterday's
diary (which listed our governors and open seats we must defend), this one will examine the governor races we will be challenging the Republicans for in 2006.
Republicans
Alabama: Bob Riley
Unpopular, even among Republicans. May face (and get massacred by) Ten Commandments Judge Roy Moore in a GOP primary, whom would be soundly defeated by Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D). One of our best pickup chances, whoever the Republican is.
Alaska: Frank Murkowski
One of the most unpopular governors in the country. Will probably get a primary challenge. Former governor Tony Knowles (D) is always a possibility, but he may be holding out for Ted Steven's senate seat in 2008.
Arkansas: OPEN
Popular governor Mike Huckabee is term-limited, and expected to run for president. Asa Hutchinson (former congressman, DEA administrator, and HSD undersecretary) has the GOP primary locked up. AG Mike Beebe probably has the Democratic nomination as well. One to watch.
California: Arnold Schwarzenegger
Once seen as unbeatable (don't know why, he only got in with around 40% of the vote), his poll numbers have plummeted, and he would lose against either of his likely Dem opponents. Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) has the lead. I doubt Arnie is even going to run again.
Colorado: OPEN
Moderately popular governor Bill Owens is term-limited, and Congressman Bob Beauprez (R) is the GOP frontrunner. No major Democrats have emerged, except an anti-abortion Denver attorney. This race is so frustrating they tried to get Sen. Salazar to run.
Connecticut: Jodi Rell
Ugh. While Lt. gov, her boss was sent to jail, and she's now the second most popular gov in the country.
Florida: OPEN
Jeb! is term-limited, and AG Charlie Crist (R) is the GOP frontrunner to replace him. All the big-name Democrats bowed out, and the remaining ones have money and ethics problems. What a disappointment.
Georgia: Sonny Perdue
Moderately popular, polls slightly above his likely challenger, Secy of State Cathy Cox (D), but doesn't break 50%. One to watch.
Hawaii: Linda Lingle
Very popular, and is facing a disfunctional state Democratic machine. The only one who could give her a run for it would be Big Island Mayor Harry Kim, a former Republican/Independant type who has expressed interest running as a Democrat.
Idaho: OPEN
Dirk Kempthorne is term-limited. Congressman Butch Otter (R) is favored to win the GOP primary and the next election.
Maryland: Bob Ehrlich
Mediocre approval and poll numbers, will face either Doug Duncan (D) or Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D), and lose.
Massachusetts: Mitt Romney
Mitt's lurch to the right on abortion has cost him, he loses 38-51% against AG Tom Reilly (D), his likely opponent. Thus the speculation that Lt. Gov Kerry Healey (R) will run instead for the GOP. Either way, a likely pickup for Democrats.
Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty
His popularity has plummeted in recent months, and state Democrats are slowly reviving. Will probably face a tight race for re-election. State Senator Steve Kelley (D) has announced his intent to run. AG Mike Hatch (D) is also strongly considering, and would be a strong candidate.
Nebraska: Dave Heineman
No one but Ben Nelson could beat him.
Nevada: OPEN
Kenny Guinn is retiring, and Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) is stepping up. Should be close, since Gibbons' base is rural Nevada, a city-based challenger could make things interesting.
New York: OPEN
Miserably unpopular governor George Pataki is making way for ex-Massachusetts governor Bill Weld (R). AG Spitzer (D) beats him 60-16% in an early poll. Ours, finally.
Ohio: OPEN
Corrupt Bob Taft, who has an approval rating of 17%, is unfortunately term-limited. The state GOP thinks they have their savior in Secy of State Ken Blackwell (R), but Congressman Ted Strickland (D) is going to take this for the Dems, big time.
Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri
Carcieri is too conservative for RI, but he still leads Lt. Gov Fogarty (D) in early polls (though he doesn't break 50%).
South Carolina: Mark Sanford
Sanford is pretty safe at the moment. Polls above 50% against possible challengers.
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Third most popular governor. Safe.
Texas: Rick Perry
Perry is facing a primary challenge from Carole Strayhorn (R). Chris Bell (D), one of the Texas 5, would love to win this, but he faces a very uphill battle. Independant candidate Kinky Friedman is also attracting attention.
Vermont: Jim Douglas
Like NH, VT elects govs every two years. Barring a high-profile challenge, he probably wins a third time.