I don't see anyway that tomorrow is going to make Dean supporters very happy, but given the pre-emptive declarations of indifference to the results, it is clear that no folding of tents is going to occur at least for a few more weeks.
Nevertheless, he has to show something tomorrow, and I have attempted to collate a best case scenario:
It is clear that Kerry needs to be slowed somewhere, or it is quickly going to be all over. On the other hand, Dean doesn't want either Clark or Edwards to gain any real momentum; in fact, Roy Neel's strategy is apparently predicated on getting Edwards and Clark out of the race as soon as possible. (My assumption is that if that were to happen the Dean campaign would start to go very negative on Kerry.) How to solve this conundrum isn't clear, but my numbers are based on the idea that
- Kerry can't go 7 for 7 tomorrow; but
- Edwards and Clark can't win SC and OK by very much
So here are my "best case scenario" predictions (while still attempting to remain within the bounds of possibility: if Kerry makes a strong declaration in favor of child pornography tonight, well, then, it would change things. But sources tell me that is unlikely to happen at this juncture, so I have based these fairly close to recent polls, which means not hoping that Dean suddenly goes from 9 to 15 percent in South Carolina):
Missouri: Kerry 45%, Edwards 15%, no one else above minimum. (Kerry 56 delegates, Edwards 18)
Arizona: Kerry 31%, Clark 24%, Dean 15%, no one else above minimum. (Kerry 24, Clark 19, Dean 12)
South Carolina: Edwards 30%, Kerry 25%, no one else above minimum. (Edwards 25, Kerry 20)
Oklahoma: Clark 28%, Kerry 27%, Edwards 20%, no one else above minimum. (Clark 15, Kerry 14, Edwards 11)
New Mexico: Kerry 31%, Dean 21%, no one else above minimum. (Kerry 15, Dean 11)
Delaware: Kerry 40%, Dean 15%, no one else above minimum. (Kerry 11, Dean 4)
North Dakota: Kerry 35%, Clark 20%, no one else above minimum. (Kerry 9, Clark 5)
For the day, this would put delegate totals at:
Kerry 149
Edwards 54
Clark 39
Dean 27
Adding IA and NH (no, I'm not including superdelegates):
Kerry 182
Edwards 72
Dean 43
Clark 39
Not pretty for Dean, but I think the best he can hope for, and then he better hope numbers are good in MI, WA, and ME this weekend ...
(By the way: feel free to correct my math, I'm not a numbers person by trade. Please no flames from Kerry, Edwards, Clark supporters -- I'm aware that I've interpreted the numbers to Dean's best advantage.)