Keeping in mind that it's early, keeping in mind that I haven't seen ANY of the pictures nominated for Best Picture (yet - I will see them all in the coming month), here is my initial Oscar handicap, in the major categories:
Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti - 50%
Jake Gyllenhaal - 30%
George Clooney - 10%
Matt Dillon - 7%
William Hurt - 3%
Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams - 40%
Amy Adams - 25%
Rachael Weisz - 20%
Frances McDormand - 10%
Catherine Keener - 5%
Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - 80%
Joaquin Phoenix - 15%
Heath Ledger - 3%
Terrance Howard - 1%
Davaid Strathairn - 1%
Actress
Reese Witherspoon - 50%
Felicity Huffman - 45%
Charlize Theron - 2%
Keira Knightley - 2%
Judi Dench - 1%
Screenplay, Adapted
Munich - 40%
Brokeback Mountain - 30%
Capote - 15%
The Constant Gardener - 10% (If I am way off with any of my Oscar handicaps, for some reason I think it might be with this movie winning this Oscar)
A History of Violence - 5%
Screenplay, Original
Good Night, And Good Luck - 60%
Syriana - 30%
Crash - 8%
Match Point - 1%
The Squid And the Whale - 1%
Director
Brokeback Mountain - 50%
Munich - 40%
Capote - 6%
Good Night, And Good Luck 3%
Crash - 1%
Picture
Brokeback Mountain - 75%
Munich - 20%
Capote - 2%
Good Night, And Good Luck - 2%
Crash - 1%