The major tracking polls are
here. Zogby is unchanged but specifically notes the 2 point Bush lead (47-45) is driven by the red state Bush numbers. Here's an article to drive home the point:
Bush Might Gain 2 Million Votes Where He Doesn't Need Them
President George W. Bush is poised to gain 2 million votes this year in the three most-populous U.S. states: California, Texas and New York. None of those ballots will help him win re-election.
Another good article to peruse is a geek look at cell-phones and polling:
Survey Finds Republicans More Likely To Respond To Phone Polls
The survey found while likely voters, both Republican and Democrat, reported receiving an equal number of polling calls, Republicans are 25 percent more likely than Democrats to have responded to at least one poll. The difference was just as pronounced for polls related to the national election where Republicans were more than 23 percent more likely to have responded to a poll call.
Some of the difference may be attributed to the survey findings showing that Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to indicate they screen their calls (44 percent and 27 percent respectively).
The survey also uncovered another factor working against pollsters. Democrats with cellular phone services, who also have a traditional landline, are 46 percent more likely (35 percent and 24 percent respectively) than Republicans to say they answer "most" of their incoming calls at home using their cell phones.
Finally, don't mix this excellent analysis/national poll roundup by mattb25 (there's more than just polls here). Polls have to be part of the narrative to be any good.
The thread will be here all day; meaty polling diaries are welcome but if there's not enough analysis or material for a diary, park it here.
Update [2004-10-23 11:28:4 by DemFromCT]:
Newsweek says it's a tie with RV 46-46 (a 3-way). Note Bush's numbers, not Kerry's.
The narrative?
The poll of 1,008 registered voters, including 880 likely voters—conducted Thursday and Friday—finds President Bush’s lead in last week’s NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated. At the same time, Sen. Kerry still hasn’t been able to close the deal with voters.
Yet.