Japan Election - It's the economy, and the scandals

I spent a few minutes this evening looking for news of how Japanese markets might be faring overnight in response to US weakness late last week, and was embarrassed to discover that I hadn't known that there was an election in Japan on Sunday.

Japan's election on Sunday was for seats in the upper house of the Japanese Parliament.  It appears that for the first time in half a century, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party no longer controls that house.  The relatively new Democratic Party of Japan dominated the election results.

The lower house of Parliament chooses Japan's Prime Minister, so it's not automatic that the incumbent, Shinzuo Abe, will lose his post.  Mr Abe, in fact, has said that he won't resign.

Press reports cite a variety of very familiar-sounding issues as reasons for the defeat Mr Abe's party has suffered.  Here's part of the analysis:

The main opposition Democratic Party seized control of the upper house by a landslide, capturing seats not only in cities but also in rural districts that had long been strongholds of the Liberal Democratic Party. The rout was widespread, with household names in the governing party falling one after another before opposition newcomers. It could also stall Tokyo's moves toward a more assertive foreign policy and active military.

In a devastating rebuke to Abe, angry voters punished him for his mishandling of bread-and-butter issues and for a series of scandals in a government seemingly in disarray.

Mr Abe's party, the LDP, still controls the lower house, but the DPJ now has a great deal of leverage to stall or alter Mr Abe's agenda.  

Military buildup?  Corruption and cronyism?  Incomptence?  Economic worries?

In his quest for a third term in the upper house of Parliament, Kohei Tamura has been crisscrossing the verdant mountains of his district, hugging its dark blue coastline and running all the while against a member of his own party - the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"I don't get what 'a beautiful country' means," Tamura said in a speech here, singling out the defining, though vague, campaign slogan used by Abe.

"Here in Kochi, we've been reduced to worrying about our next meal," Tamura said of his economically depressed district in western Japan. "So when he comes to support us with this pie-in-the-sky 'Japan, a beautiful country' and says nothing but random things, I feel he's making fools of us."

But wait -- there's a bonus.  Sunday's election also featured the spectacle of Alberto Fujimori -- yes, that Alberto Fujimori, former President of Peru, now under house arrest in Chile and fighting extradition to Peru -- running for a seat.  He lost in his bid, suggesting that Japanese voters weren't interested in importing his style of government, either.

Twenty years ago, many in the US felt the Japanese were far ahead of us in a variety of ways.  Now, perhaps, they're ahead of us politically.

•  Tips for Japan

  We'll see how it all plays out.

  by Liberal Protestant on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 10:20:27 PM PDT

•  I don't pretend to be an expert in

  Japanese politics...but from some of the reports I've seen, this Liberal Democratic Party has basically been in power since WWII almost without interruption. And the Democratic Party of Japan is a loose coalition of opponents to the incumbent government but with no real unifying ideology. In fact, if I understand things Japanese politics isn't really a battle between left and right...

  by michael1104 on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 10:29:56 PM PDT

•  Yes.

  This is even though Japan's economy is enjoying a boom not seen since bubble days and even though corruption is less than what we expect in a Rethug admin. The people are just not happy. Abe is also taking a bit of heat also from the backlash of Koizumi being Bush Poodle Boy III (after Blair and Howard) for so long.

  A good link for news of the election is the Mainichi Shimbun at: http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/ . It is in English, so don't let Kanji impairment dissuade you from checking this out. There are also some interesting tidbits about Japanese life. My fav is the WaiWai section.

  by shigeru on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 10:32:10 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for the added color

    Also loved the link.  It's exactly what you'd expect from a cross between the Mainichi and MSN, isn't it?

    by Liberal Protestant on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 10:51:55 PM PDT

  •  Haha...

    Porn-born TV star's search for Mr. Goodbar reaches climax

    I can see why you like the WaiWai section. =)

    by Archangel on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:03:29 PM PDT

    •  Busted!! (n/t)

      by shigeru on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:09:14 PM PDT

•  I was in Peru in '98 on a dig

  when Fujimori was prez.  It was a pretty nervous time - we all knew that he was corrupt, so as foreigners, we were really careful.  I was so glad when I read the news today that said he had lost the election.

  Thanks for the diary.

  by political girl on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 10:45:15 PM PDT

•  From what I know of Japanese politics

  The LDP has dominated since 1955 (!). The Democratic Party has never held a majority in either house in Japan. So this is...historic.

  Abe may become the first LDP Prime Minister to be unseated by the opposition. When is the next "lower-house" election?

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:11:24 PM PDT

  •  If I recall correctly,

    the opposition in the 1990s did take power and formed a couple governments, but they fell apart rather quickly.  The LDP came back.

    by cjallen on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:25:45 PM PDT

    •  That agrees with the IHT article I cited

      The interval you mention lasted 11 months.  Interestingly, it was Osawa, the same political operative that masterminded the last opposition success, that seems to have been number one tactician for the opposition this time around, too.

      by Liberal Protestant on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:28:50 PM PDT

•  Its good news. I just hope Japan will eventually

  become a real democracy.

  by cjallen on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:13:24 PM PDT

  •  Japan is tricky in one regard

    because the politics, based on small wards (almost villages) is very local. What has happened in the past is that the LDP will lose ground then will adapt. For example after the '90's losses the LDP co-opted a lot of the opposition's ideas and policies and actually changed itself.

    I think Japan has a true democracy in all aspects. In many ways it is more robust than ours right now and much less likely to succumb to fascism. Of course they had their great fascist disaster in the '30's and '40's and the pain/memory of that is still relatively fresh. It's a different place though and in many aspects more controlled than the US, but in many others much more free. The current, latest battle is whether to develop a Japanese version of Scandinavia or go down the US path whole hog.

    by shigeru on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 01:34:33 AM PDT

    •  Is it so fresh?

      When I read about trying to increase patriotism and also the bad relations Koizumi had running with Korea and China for several years I get worried that maybe Japan has forgotten what it learned from its past mistakes.  I really think they are also not learning from our mistakes when they want to increase their military power.  I hope you are right about their memory.  

      by Asak on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 02:17:40 AM PDT

      •  Well they have some hard choices

        They are concerned about China and Russia and do not want to be a vassal state to the US forever. There is already some discussion regarding how long the vassal state policy can or should last. However, they walk a fine line with the US and if they don't meet expectations we can leave them without support or crush them as we purportedly threatened to do in the late '50's/early '60's.

        If they want to have the same rights as other nations, they will need to increase their military power. This is not all bad, because if they don't China or someone else will move into the vacuum. There is a role for a strong national defense. However, there is a vast difference between defense and imperialism. Personally I don't think that Japan is an imperialistic threat anymore, but I understand why some might think otherwise.

        In my view relations with China will be tense for a long time as Japan and China clash more and more over resources, access and technology. In addition, you must be aware that China has periodically made claims that Japan belongs to it, as well as to the fact that for long periods in history, Taiwan was part of Japan. This has been an historically volatile region of the world.

        In China's case very few of the bad relations that were purported to be Koizumi's fault, were really due to WWII, but were for current political advantage. We sometimes forget that China is still a totalitarian state which is able to manipulate agenda pretty much at will. Bush for example might dream of this power, but even with our MSM in pocket he can't approach what China can do.

        I am not a Japan WWII apologist so please don't take this wrong. I am well aware of Japan's war crimes and don't want to get into that here.

        by shigeru on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 03:04:15 AM PDT

    •  Any one-party state is not a legit democracy.

      Particularly with the particularities of their electoral and representational system, and the conservative political culture.

      by cjallen on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 03:07:59 AM PDT

      •  I guess compared to what?

        To us?

        Japan's democracy is vibrant, especially at the local level. The issue that I have is at the national level, where the US engineered proportional voting system gives much more power to rural (conservative) areas and I agree with that point. Even at the national level the LDP was out of power for 18 months in the '90's. Since 1980 the opposition has held the executive branch exactly 6.5 years less than our Democratic Party. In addition the LDP has often been a minority party, but due to the parliamentary system, 3rd parties and the ability to form coalitions has remained in power. Japan's problem in this regard may not be too few parties but too many.

        Our government and CIA have threatened and cajoled Japan any time that the country has attempted to revise their constitution to allow more equal voting. I am hopeful that they will do so, but the US must agree to leave hands off and abide by any Japanese decision.

        There are a lot of points to discuss here. For example the merits of the parliamentary versus presidential system among others.

        by shigeru on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 09:29:56 AM PDT

•  we voted anti-LDP

  My wife is a Japanese citizen living in California with a green card, and voted by overseas ballot for their Democratic party, the Minshutoh (DPJ).  PM Abe is with the LDP, which is like their GOP.  It was great to hear that the DPJ won!  

  Over the years I've noticed weird similarities between  Japan's politics and ours.  Our red states go for the GOP; Japan's rural prefectures go for the LDP.  The LDP's crony corporatist, Bush-supporting policies don't reflect the wishes of most Japanese.  This DPJ victory is like our 2006 election, with the Democrats winning back a seat at the table, though not enough to force wholesale change.

  By the way, here in the US, Tim Weiner is getting a lot of press for his book "A Legacy of Ashes" about the CIA.  Prof. Chalmers Johnson reviewed it, and brought this up, which makes me sad and embarrassed for my own country's role:

  "After Italy, the CIA moved on to Japan, paying to bring Nobusuke Kishi to power as Japan's prime minister (in office 1957-1960), the country's World War II minister of munitions. It ultimately used its financial muscle to entrench the (conservative) Liberal Democratic Party in power and to turn Japan into a single-party state, which it remains to this day."  

  Chalmers Johnson review

  I was unaware of this until now.

  by SVPublius on Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 11:54:04 PM PDT

  •  We attempted the same thing

    in Australia and the CIA was largely responsible for the birth of the modern Liberal (conservative) party in Australia. They even went so far as to develop and fund the premier conservative journal in Australia, Quadrangle.

    We have subverted the will of the majority of the world's people for an awful long time and have a bit to answer for.

    by shigeru on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 01:37:32 AM PDT

    •  wow

      This is the first time I've heard about the CIA and Australia.  Thanks for posting.

      by SVPublius on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 07:53:12 AM PDT

      •  At the time the Labor Party and the

        equivalent of the socialist parties were in power and in the ascendancy. The US and the CIA were very concerned and deeply afraid that Australia would move to a Scandinavian model. At the time Australia had implemented national health care and other "crazy" ideas. There is also a strong belief that the CIA engineered the removal of the Whitlam government as per Wiki:

        The actions taken by the Whitlam government were generally left-wing policies relative to those desired by government and business in the United States, and relations between Gough Whitlam and the United States became tense during 1975, especially after Whitlam publicly declared that Richard L. Stallings was a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operative and that he had been in charge of the Pine Gap satellite tracking and communication base near Alice Springs. According to Tony Douglas[3],

        A cable from a senior CIA official and Task Force 157 member, Ted Shackley, on November 10 accused Whitlam of being a security risk and asked ASIO to do something about it. The Head of the Defence Department, [Sir] Arthur Tange, described him as "the greatest risk to our nation's security that there has ever been."
        Christopher Boyce, convicted of spying for the Soviet Union, has claimed that the CIA wanted Whitlam removed from office because he wanted to close United States military bases in Australia, including Pine Gap[4][5], and had begun making diplomatic overtures to China, as President Nixon had previously done. Boyce said that the US government considered that "Mr. Whitlam's Government was a threat" because of Whitlam's interest in US security operations on Australian territory.[5]

        Boyce also claimed that at least one CIA agent referred to Sir John Kerr as our man Kerr. Kerr had earlier been a member of the executive board of the CIA front organisation, the Australian Association for Cultural Freedom.[5]

        Claims were made by Tony Douglas, although no significant evidence was produced, that the dismissal happened just hours before Whitlam planned to reveal secret information about the nature of the CIA communications facility at Pine Gap in Parliament.[3]

        by shigeru on Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 09:13:59 AM PDT