For some reason, it looks like all the most popular 2008 Republicans are starting to step away from the stage. I know we're maybe 18 months away from anything like a campaign, but
pollingreport.com cites this February Marist College Poll of registered Republicans on their early primary picks:
Rudy Giuliani (25%)
John McCain (21%)
Condoleezza Rice (14%)
Jeb Bush (7%)
With 20% undecided and the rest below 5%. Condi and Jeb have already unequivocally said that they will not run, and Giuliani seems happy with his law firm. I must confess that I'm not sure what McCain's been up to, but no one seems to have registered draftmccain.com yet. So what's the deal? Here's what I think:
If any of these folks can be taken seriously when they say or suggest that they will not run, and as it is extremely unlikely that the constitution will be changed for the sake of the governator of my state, the Republicans are left with the Newt, Mitch Romney, Rick Santorum, Pataki, and Colorado Governor Bill Owens.
But Romney and Pataki and going to get creamed in the MA and NY Governor's races, Newt is damaged goods, and if we do anything in the Senate it will be to get rid of Rick Santorum.
Of course there's always Bill Frist, who was not mentioned in the this poll, and of course lots and lots of things can change in the next three years, but I wonder if the big-shot Republicans are downplaying their presidential ambitions because they don't want to peak too early, or if the pols with the biggest names are for some reason driven away from seeking the office?