According to the most respected California poll, the Field Poll, released today (Nov. 1), California voters are poised to reject each of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's four main "reform" initiatives. Props 74 (public school teacher tenure), 75 (public employee union dues), 76 (state spending and school funding limits), and 77 (redistricting) not only have more opposition than support, they are also doing worse last week than they were the week before.
Details at:
http://field.com/...
More below.
Proposition 74: Would limit teacher tenure protections
In the most recent, Oct. 25-30, round of the Field Poll, this proposition was supported by 34% of likely voters and opposed by 44% (10% had no opinion) before being read the ballot summary. After being read the summary, 50% opposed and 44% supported it. Not surprisingly, the California Teachers Association has been on the forefront against this one, which is a proverbial knee to the groin of teachers in California, and exemplifies Arnold's picking fights with valued public workers.
Proposition 75: Would require union members to "opt in" to allowing dues to be spent for advocacy/politics
This latest Field poll shows that 46% of likely voters oppose Prop 75 (the latest version of "paycheck protection" in California, which has been defeated before), while 29% support it. The numbers were 50% No and 40% Yes after being read the ballot summary. Coming to work today I saw three "Firefighters Say No on 75" signs. You don't F with the firefighters; you just don't.
Proposition 76: Limits spending; gives Governor unilateral power to cut funding, especially from schools
60% of likely voters opposed Prop 76, while 32% favored it after being read the ballot summary. This is really the centerpiece of the "reform" part of Arnold's package, as distinguished from the purely "crap on my enemies" part (Props 74, 75 and 77).
Proposition 77: Panel of retired judges, not legislature, does redistricting
As on this blog, California's voters are split on Prop 77. 36% opposed and 31% favored in the Oct. 25-30 poll, but this is a dramatic change from Oct. 18-24, when 29% favored and only 24% opposed. After being read the ballot summary, 51% opposed and 35% supported Prop 77. About a third of likely voters have either not heard of Prop 77 or have no opinion. I saw a TV ad the other night with Judge Wapner (of the original People's Court fame) telling people to oppose this. While in the abstract putting redistricting in the hands of people without a stake in the result is a good idea, Prop 77 (1) doesn't necessarily ensure that the panel doesn't have a stake and (2) practically speaking, would likely have the near-term effect of reducing the number of Democrats elected to the California Legislature and Congress.
Interestingly, Arnold's campaign may be hurting his favored initiatives. By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, i.e., 43% to 24% in the Oct. 25-30 poll, voters say that the Governor's support of an initiative makes them more likely to vote No than Yes.
Field is coming out with the numbers on Props 73 (parental consent for abortion), and 78 and 79 (competing prescription plans) tomorrow.
How sweet it would be for Arnold to go down next Tuesday!!