It's instructive to speculate on what the Bush campaign could still do between now and Jan 20. I've compiled a list. I don't know that all of this will happen -- some of it is perfectly legitimate politics, some of it is way out in tinfoil-hat land -- but if I put myself in Karl Rove's shoes, and (not incidentally) removed all respect for the American political system and cared only about winning, the following is some of what I'd try.
I say it not to depress anyone but to remind you that we're up against a terrifying and ruthless machine, and there's a really long and hard slog between now and the Kerry inauguration.
1. Bold nonsense
I don't know why people think the Republican National Convention won't have anything newsworthy. Their Convention is going to contain a number of specific, well-crafted proposals -- all of which are nonsense or which would screw the country if they happened, but that doesn't bother Rove et al.
Some examples:
- Tax credits for medical expenses over $10000, advertising this will "cover every uninsured person against catastrophic illness" -- unless they don't actually pay much in income tax
- Abolishing the IRS (never mind that this is incompatible with the above)
- Another shot at privatizing Social Security
- Promising more results on the War on Terror
2. Musharrif-guy and Saud-boy
When Kerry intimated world leaders want him elected, he was probably right about all the responsible leaders of developed nations. But the real power lies in the nations that play host to bin Laden and oil.
- Pakistan has OBL on ice. Maybe. If they do, he's coming out whenever Rove wants him out -- either right at the end of the Republican Convention, or else in late October.
- The Saudis promised cheap oil for the election. I don't know if oil has gotten too high to deliver, but they'll do everything they can to drop oil prices.
3. Home Field Advantage
When people are more scared, and contemplating their mortality, they vote for Bush. Scaring people is what this administration does best.
- Secretary "We don't play politics in the Department of Reelection Security, whose successes are made possible thanks to the leadership of President Bush" Ridge can time his orange and red alerts to maximize fear.
- September 9 kicks off "National Preparedness Month" -- be ready for an onslaught of free Bush publicity thinly disguised as public service announcements.
4. Slime
The Swift Boat Lying Sons of Bitches say they have more up their sleeves. Given that they are willing simply to make shit up, it's a given that they'll continue -- it's not hard to imagine even worse allegations, if one is not bound by any practical considerations like veracity or provability. The first candidate who has to deny that he's had sex with a dead boy is the loser.
5. Lies about the economy and policy
The administration that created the mendacious "Clear Skies" and "Healthy Forests" initiatives are not above lying about the effects of their policies. Note that they consistently overstate numbers each month, and later quietly revise them downwards. They'll do a big-ass overstating of everything in October -- Lots of growth! Lots of jobs! Healthier children, all of them above average! Girls in bikinis! If it's all revealed as lies after the election, who cares?
6. The Wheels Of Justice Grind Slow And Thus Pointlessly
Suppose you think getting Bush reelected is more important than anything. Would you break the law to get him reelected? Of course you would. So you're not permitted to advertise in certain ways (527s buying ads within 60 days of the election.) If you fig-leaf your ad buys in some way so that it could be conceivably argued that you're not violating the law, then you can violate the law -- it won't come to trial until after the election, at which point justice is pointless.
7. He Who Counts The Votes
Diebold. Jeb. If all else fails, they can still try to steal it. Given everything else, do you really expect them not to?
8. Will they give it up?
Suppose Kerry is declared the victor. Suppose there's a terrorist attack shortly before Jan 20. Will they give up power in the chaos? They haven't shown a lot of respect for any other American institutions; if we really believe they're only interested in power, they have no reason to give it up.