Kerry and Bush are statistically tied in a March 10-22, 2004 poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati. N=632. MOE 3.9%.
Kerry 46%
Bush 44%
Nader 5%
Other/Undecided 4%
But here's where things get screwy.
"Suppose the election for president was being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the Independent. Which would you vote for?"
Nader
18-29 year olds = 20%
Dayton area voters = 10%
Liberals = 14%
Independents = 19%
Kerry and Bush's numbers flip flop between upstate liberals and downstate conservatives. Effectively, cancelling each other out.
If these numbers hold through the summer, the Nader vote could be a huge factor here again.
Somebody throw Dennis Kucinich a bone, quick.
Ohio poll - Dead Heat in the Battle for Ohio