It's all in the title. I'm doing a new rundown of open seats in
La Casa.
We have a few open seats already.
Should be interesting. A large number of Reps, for some reason, are running for Governor this year. Others are running for Senate. In fact, only a handful are actually retiring for good.
Read below the jump...
So, this diary only talks about the open seats. After a few minutes, I will post one on the notable incumbent races.
Colorado 7 (Denver suburbs)
Open - R
Luckily we didn't have to wait long for a real crack at this one. Bob Beauprez is running for Governor (here's hoping he doesn't win it), leaving his ultra-competitive district wide open. Early entrants: Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall (R), education official Rick O'Donnell (R), former State Rep. Peggy Lamm (D), and State Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D). Toss-Up.
Florida 9 (Florida Gulf Coast)
Open - R
Mike Bilirakis is retiring after 12 terms. His son, Gus, might run. Very very very very very Republican district - typical Gulf Coast, with gated communities and rich white people everywhere. Safe GOP.
Florida 11 (Tampa Bay Area)
Open - D
One of the things about a GOP gerrymander is that Dem seats get packed with Dem voters and therefore ultra-safe. Jim Davis is running for Governor, and his seat, which contains Tampa and then jumps across the Bay to catch South St. Petersburg (love that gerrymandering!), should remain in Dem hands. Safe Dem.
Idaho 1 (Western Idaho)
Open - R
Butch Otter is running for Governor. His district, which contains the western half of Potatoland, is heavily Republican, there is no contest here. A Dem might not even run. Safe GOP.
Illinois 6 (Western Chicago suburbs)
Open - R
My district. Henry Hyde is retiring after 16 terms. Good riddance. Christine Cegelis, who garnered a surprisingly good 45% against him last year, is running, along with State Sen. Peter Roskam (R). However, Cegelis' good showing may have been due to fatigue with Hyde's madness. So his retirement may be a bad thing. Likely GOP for now.
Illinois 18 (Central Illinois, including Peoria)
Open - R
Ray LaHood is running for Governor against our very unpopular Dem Gov, Blagojevich. His district is GOP-leaning but not horribly so. Still, I don't see much talk about this one. Likely GOP.
Iowa 1 (Northeastern Iowa)
Open - R
This along with the Colorado 7th is our best opportunity in the House next year. It is a Dem-leaning district, with incumbent Jim Nussle running for Governor (like everybody else, it seems). 2002 and 2004 candidate State Sen. Bill Gluba (D) may run, but many would prefer State Rep. Cindy Winckler. State Rep. Bill Dix (R) has to be the frontrunner on the GOP side. Toss-Up.
Maryland 3 (Baltimore suburbs)
Open - D
With Ben Cardin running for Senate (my pick to win, too), this Dem district is wide open. Demographically, the third is much whiter and more affluent than most of Maryland, but the voters are more Democratic than the average suburbanites. I have no idea who's running, but whichever Democrat wins the nomination is an early favorite. Likely Dem.
Minnesota 6 (Exurbs north of Minneapolis)
Open - R
With Mark Kennedy now the crown prince of the Minnesota Republican Party, he is running for Senate. Only one Democrat, Patty Wetterling, would be an early favorite here, and she too is interested in the upper chamber. So with Wetterling out of the race, Likely GOP.
Nebraska 3 (Western Nebraska)
Open - R
Tom Osborne is...running for Governor, and should get it. Some unknown Republican should get his seat, too, which contains a vast swathe of Nebraska's land. The district is heavily rural and has about 17 Democrats (just kidding). Safe GOP.
Nevada 2 (Northern Nevada)
Open - R
Yep. Jim Gibbons, wingnut extraordinaire, is running for Governor. And his district, containing almost all of Nevada's land, is pretty unlikely to change parties. The 2nd is basically everything north of Vegas, and so it is safe GOP. Luckily, though, the governor's mansion ain't safe GOP.
New Jersey 6 (New Jersey Coastline)
Open - D
Frank Pallone is running for the Senate seat being left by future Governor Jon Corzine. It will be interesting to see, though, whether Corzine appoints Pallone or someone else when he is elected Gov. If it's not Pallone, Pallone will still challenge the sitting Senator in the 2006 primary. The district is basically a lot of beach towns in Northern New Jersey. It's heavily Democratic. Safe Dem.
New York 11 (Brooklyn)
Open - D
Farewell, Major Owens. The dude is going home after 12 terms. I don't blame him. Anyhow, there's not a chance in hell of this going GOP unless they illegalize voting Democratic. It voted for Al Gore with 87% of the vote, and it is majority-black. So, look forward to another wonderful black guy (or girl) from Brooklyn come 2006! Safe Dem.
Ohio 6 (Eastern Ohio)
Open - D
This will be a top-tier race. Moderate Democrat Ted Strickland is running for Governor, and his GOP-leaning district, which curves like a snake across the Pennsylvania border, will require a Blue Dog or at least a centrist Dem to be kept in our column. Major defense here, although Strickland's endorsement should help whomever we come up with. Toss-Up.
Tennessee 9 (Memphis)
Open - D
With Harold Ford the odds-on favorite in the Democratic primary for Senate, we finally have an opportunity to replace the Blue Dog with a guy who really represents the interests of Memphis. The district is very Democratic and deserves more liberal representation than Ford, though Ford would be a good Senator from Tennessee in my opinion. Anyhow, this race should appease the purists around here who are sick of DLC types running our congressional leadership. Safe Dem.
Vermont At Large (The entire state of Vermont)
Open - I
With Bernie Sanders running for Senate (and practically a shoo-in to win it), the state of Vermont's only real race will be in the House. The state was 59% Kerry last year, but Republicans are still competent on the local level, so this is not easy to call. Likely Dem/Indie, but still stands a decent chance of going GOP (Republicans are talking up their new candidate, Martha Rainville).
Wisconsin 8 (Northeastern Wisconsin)
Open - R
Mark Green is running for Governor, and his seat is GOP-leaning and heavily rural. But, don't count out a maverick, Feingold-style Dem here. In fact, I believe Feingold's base of popularity is here, people really admire his unpredictability. Likely GOP for now.
So that's that. The only open seats so far with a really strong chance of switching parties are Colorado 7, Iowa 1, and Ohio 6. Upsets can't be ruled out, however, in Illinois 6, Illinois 18, Wisconsin 8, or Vermont.
Incumbent races coming soon. That's where the real fun actually is.