As if on cue, just as Iowa moves into "winning time," we see new speculation in the media about a Bloomberg run. While I don't know if he'll run or not--ultimately, it may be a question of ego--I'm fairly sure it will affect few voters currently inclined to vote Democrat.
There are two reasons, one is a question of brand, the other is wisdom I've picked up right here, but let's look at brand first.
Bloomberg, in order to become a viable vote-getter, must define a clear distinction between the ultimate nominees of the major parties. Other than saying "Hey, I ran New York without having to shoot unarmed bystanders 41 times..." there's just not a lot that's really compelling. The media's fascination is based on an incorrect assumption--that neither party personifies the "moderate center vote." That's of course nonsense--if there were a substantial moderate center between both parties, we wouldn't be in the state we're in now.
To translate that further, the message is something along the lines of making Bloomberg a "safe choice." If you're not comfortable with a woman, vote Bloomberg; If you're not comfortable with a black man, vote Bloomberg, if you're not comfortable with a rich southern attorney, vote for a richer northeastern tycoon...
...and don't forget, if you're not comfortable voting for another Republican religious looney, vote Bloomberg.
Safe does not inspire passion. Passion will be in the Democrats camp. There is a passion for change, not for an improved status quo. At most, Bloomberg's message will divide the Republican vote further, particularly if Huckabee pulls off the nomination, but that's another day.
Now for that second point--organization. Bloomberg is by most accounts an effective CEO. He can self-fund to match any candidate, if he so chooses. But he can't instantly generate the kind of on the ground organization that both parties have in place. Even if the Republicans end up divided, the party's machinery will still end up working for the Republican Nominee, perhaps with fewer volunteers, but Republican all the way. Money buys advertising, it buys staff, but not the whole enchilada on the ground. Not without a large and passionate following willing to rally to the cause.
Safe does not do it. Compromise does not do it. Competence does not do it. What besides those types of messages does Bloomberg have to run on?
Now, as much as I would love to see Bloomberg consign today's GOP to the ranks of the Whigs, I just don't see it.
Happy 2008, and an even happier 2009 everyone.