Polls showing uptick for Obama
First,the big deal over the DMR is its effect on the final caucus results as well as its methodology. That is why all the campaigns and well informed bloggers were anxiously awaiting its results. As the most well respected of all the Iowa polls, it confers a sense of imminent victory on the candidate leading in the final published poll. The DMR is the state's most wide-read paper so Iowa voters will read the headline: "Obama Widens Lead Over Clinton" and the psychological effect is for a voter, especially anyone wavering between Obama and another candidate, is to go with who they percieve to be the imminent winner.
Second, the DMR poll is not alone in showing an uptick for Obama. It was widely reported that CNN showed an opposite result with Clinton ahead of Obama 33% to 31%. But what was not discussed much was that even the CNN poll showed Obama with a significant uptick of +4. Strategic Vision and Zogby are showing similar trends.
Obama's Upward Trend:
DMR: +4
Daily Zogby Tracking: +2 (over past two days)
CNN: +4
SV: +2.
I trust Ann Selzer's professionalism and believe her data is legitimately telling her something. I seriously doubt that would risk her reputation with a sloppy poll.