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And a cautinary tale to Hillary Clinton.  Many political obituaries were written last night in Iowa.  Chief among them was that of the Republican Party.  Amazingly Mike Huckabee came from obscurity to take down Rudy and Mitt...BUT HOW ABOUT THAT OBAMA!

Huckabee won the Republican race but so what the story is OBAMA.



Mike Gravel
Joe Biden
Chris Dodd
Rudy Guilliani
Fred Thompson
John McCain
and alas my hero John Edwards

I would put  Duncan Hunter on this list but he was already dead when he got to Iowa and Dennis Kucinich also.

None of these people will be President.

The Republican Party in it's current incarnation is dead also.  Iowa gave us the first evidence that the people will no longer support the Bush-Rove-RNC type government.  Iowa Democrats turned out in numbers 2 and half times as large as Republicans.  Time for the Republicans to re-invent themselves.

Barrack Obama not only lived but he is thriving.  Huckabee is alive and well and Hillary is still standing, although she has some scars from the fight.

I think that the Clinton's first reaction will be to go negative on Obama and I think it will be a big mistake.  When John Edwards gets out of this race (sigh) his backers will naturally flow to Obama.  Both Obama and Edwards beat Hillary, meaning that Hillary's base is 25% of Democrats, very few independents and 1 Republican in Ohio.  If she goes negative on Obama those numbers will shrink and Hillary will return to the Senate, not nearly as strong as she left it.

History was made last night, Democrats chose a black man as the standard bearer of our party, and the historical part about it was that we didn't choose him because he was or wasn't black, we chose him because he is the man that we want to lead us.  Obama isn't the black candidate, he is the candidate, what a great day for America.

Today oil hovers around $100 a barrel, the unemployment numbers inched up to 5%, the dollar is getting battered abroad,  Iraq is malingering and Americans are fed up.  George Bush is huddling with his economic advisers trying to decide what to do about this RECESSION that is facing America, but they won't call it a RECESSION.  They are going to announce a "stimulus package"(Read as; more tax cuts for the wealthy) soon.

A note to Obama; Congratulations on your brilliant victory last night and will you please pick John Edwards as your vice President, now.  I say now because together the two of you would be unstoppable!

On to New Hampshire...

Originally posted to Robs Rant on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:48 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Most... (0+ / 0-)

    John Edwards supporters list Hillary Clinton as their second choice so the idea that Edwards dropping out will make his supporters "naturally flow" to Obama is false. I will try and find the link that has the poll numbers for Edwards second choices nationwide.

    I support John Reid Edwards for President.

    by Ocean Stater on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:57:26 AM PST

    •  Where are the statistics for this? (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not doubting that the 2nd choice info you write is true, but I haven't seen that particular poll result (or that questions polled nationally). Do you remember where you got it, or the margins?

      (-2.75, -4.92) | Barack Obama: Best chance in a long time

      by Addison on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:08:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Regardless (0+ / 0-)

      of the poll numbers, it doesn't make any sense that Edwards supporters will flow to Hillary.  Edwards and Obama are more closely aligned ideologically than is Hillary.  If they supported Hillary they would have already supported her.  As an Edwards supporter, my 2nd choice is Obama and I don't think my choice is in opposition to my bretheren in the Edwards camp.

  •  RIP John McCain and John Edwards?? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    herodotus, votermom, sodalis, meowmissy, VClib

    Edwards is walking a tightrope but McCain is one of the favorites to win the R nomination. How could he be even considered to be close to death (besides his age)?

    I support John Reid Edwards for President.

    by Ocean Stater on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 08:59:38 AM PST

    •  McCain Won't Make It.... (0+ / 0-)

      in a change year, particularly w/his ludicrous rants on a permanent American presence in Iraq!!!

      People gave him props for standing up to Rummy, but this gibberish....geesh!!!  He and Joementum have clearly been guzzling too much Kool-Aid out of the same glass!!!

      •  McCain probably won't win the general. . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gregory Wonderwheel

        but he's still a leading candidate to win the nomination.  Certainly he fact that he came in twenty-fourth (or whatever) last night will be forgotten when he wins New Hampshire.

        El respeto al derecho ajeno es la paz -- Benito Juarez

        by LarryInNYC on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:29:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  You mistake the nomination for the election (0+ / 0-)

        McCain won't win a general election, but he is still very likely to win the nominaition.

        Of course the next week will tell how likely.

        But Huckabee and Romney are Republican intoxicants and I still think the Repubs will sober up soon.

      •  If Hilliary get the Dem nod - (0+ / 0-)

        how much different is her record on Iraq versus that of McCain. In fact one can argue that McCain correctly called for a larger force early AND the surge has worked to some degree and could in fact look a lot better as we approach November.

        If the economy starts to tank and the TAX that high oil prices are starts really hurting .... McCain as more fiscally conservative than our candidate regardless of who that turns out to be AND not proposing additional governmental programs AND likely proposing reducing taxes to spur economic growth (versus specifically Edwards who would roll back the breaks on the top wage earners) looks better pocketbook wise.  

        Agree that McCain's age hurts him BUT he has been looking "younger" of late (and Hilliary has a make-up person that is destined for Hollywood by the way). As to "change" ..... Hillairy to me is no change, turn back the clock to Monica time; Obama is thus far elect a person of color who will bring change that is undefined beyond color and (in my opinion) the foolish belief that he can negotiate his way to sucess; Edwards is more radical and maybe too radical change. If Obama gets specific who knows! If he doesn't he looks like an empty suit. McCain may be the "acceptable change" by the time the GE rolls around.

        Also note that Edwards has evoked TR as has the Huckster on the other side ..... and that is McCain territory. It will resonate with a lot of people.

        My wish was for Edwards to get a big change mandate and maybe Obama to then carry that forward by holding a bigger tent party together. For a fact the pendulem that swung away from W and the far right and moves ever leftward will in fact reach a point and start to move in the other direction. For McCain and all the other candidates it is largely a question of timing.

        •  Give up on "the surge" to any degree. (0+ / 0-)

          the surge has worked to some degree

          Well, since the "some" degree could be a low as one degree, then yes perhaps the surge has worked to some degree.

          But, I'm goning to argue the other side and say that the surge has not worked to any degree. All of the reported reduction in deaths can be attributed to other causes than the surge. So fay, there is correlation but no causation shown.  

          In fact it is more reasonable to credit the increase in payoffs to Sunni factions by the US as being responsible than any increast in troop strength.

          So please keep the false success of the surge out of considerations. The false success needs to be challenged every time it appears.

    •  I support John Edwards also (0+ / 0-)

      But...I don't think he's viable any longer, he needed to win.  As for John McCain, he will never be President.  I don't think that the Republican nominee is in the race yet.

      •  Edwards viability .... (0+ / 0-)

        It depends at least in my mind.
        Does Hilliary have to go negative? I think yes - and go negative big time.

        Does anything Hilliary have to go negative with stick to Obama? I don't know ..... it is to me odd that his mother, grandparents, or someone outside the immediate family has not to my knowledge made a public appearance. I do not know if any are living, in the USA, etc. It just seemed to stick out watching the parade of extended family most of the candidates rolled out.

        Does Obama have to start putting out specifics and will the debates/questions require specifics? If so, does that help him or hurt him or not do anything one way or another?

        Edwards in my opinion needs one or both of the others to falter. He may also have to alter his message somewhat. I agree that NH is problematic for him and barring a major swing/event he is in serious trouble. Obama by the way needs to kill Hilliary (POLITICALLY SPEAKING ONLY) while he can.

      •  Do you have some secret clue? (0+ / 0-)

        Who do you think this mysterious nominee is? Or are you just imagining that they have to find somewone better even though the primaries will pretty much be over after February?
        Are you seriously saying that a newcomer can come in at the last moment to wim primaries?
        Or are you saying they will go to the convention with no candidate having a majority and pick a compromise dark horse?

        •  35 years (0+ / 0-)

          as a political junkie, watching the Republican Party operate.

          George Bush holds grudges.  He doesn't like McCain.  In the Republican party the people do not select the candidate the party power structure decides who the candidate will be and then they allow the party voters to ratify it.

          Remember, the RNC is controlled by Bushies, Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman, etc.  The Party will not support Romney, they won't support Huckabee and they surwon't support McCain.  Fred Thompson was an attempt to interject their "ideal" into the race but they failed.  Look at his campaign staff, MARY MATLIN, right from inside the RNC.  When no legitimate publishing house would pick up Karl Rove's memoires, Mary Matlin came to the rescue and is now publishing the manuscipt.

          It is my opinion that they will enter another candidate and it may well go to a floor fight at the convention.

  •  and Gravel.... (0+ / 0-)

    he's still a zombie, coming back to life after Olbermann declared him dead, to demand an apology from KO....

    Didn't know for sure that he still was in the race, but you'd think getting zero percent would provide a hint

  •  Agree on the Obama congrats (0+ / 0-)

    Much deserved and well earned. I also think it is a historic moment and may (and I say may) be the springboard for his nomination.

    I agree that Hilliary is wounded but not yet finished regarding her presidential run. Obama who at present holds the rifle had better take heed of the old Republican adage and shoot the wounded. I also suspect she and the Clinton team (at least the part of the Clinton team that is not working in the Obama camp) will go negative. That possibly could help John Edwards and he needs help at this moment.

    I would not write off the Republican party in the GE. From what I could gather from the numbers, Iowa was a big turnout for registered Dems. Independents voting in the Dem caucus rose 20% and registered Republicans standing in the Dem caucus rose about 5% .... if I understood correctly. The Republican turnout was also higher but not to the same level. What all this means to me is that I still expect a close GE. Registered Republicans and Democrats are basically 1/3 or so of the electorate factoring in that a higher percentage of Republicans actually vote. Independents can sway in the breeze AND McCain has in the past appealed to Independents.

    Our three leading candidates are all flawed. Hilliary has huge negatives and I think as evidenced by Iowa cannot beat the anybody nut Hilliary within the party. She could not get all the Democratic vote and would energize the Republican base big time. Edwards is the more liberal, has to me a better message and more progressive program, but is short on experience. Obama has a message that may have a broader appeal, has not been vetted fully, has been very short on specifics, and has even less experience. Compare these to McCain. Resume wise .... + McCain or even a wash at best. Experience, McCain beats all the top three relatively easily AND whereas I and many others opposed the war and still do our candidates run the gammet and most inportantly the "surge" has shown some success. McCain may actually have a winning hand ...... little differnt than Hilliary, if conditions improve a little more then the average Joe might want a little more time than say Edwards, and Obama - I have no idea where he stands beyond his initial opposition vis-a-vis his future course of action. McCain has pushed for campaign finance reform, is fiscally more conservative than any of our three, has served in the military, and while we may not like it is probably closer to the majority on immigration, abortion, etc. than our candidate will be. Age works against him and there is some question as to his firing up the entire GOP right wing base. He would not be a cake walk.

  •  Like Mark Twain, reports of GOP demise are (0+ / 0-)


    It is fun and wishful thinking, but though Bush has severely tarnished the Republican reputation only a fool would think he has demolished the party.

    The chances of a Republican being elected president in 2008 are pretty slim, but there will be many republicans left in the Senate and they know how to use the filibuster even if the Democrats don't.

    Also, with people like Pelosi in charge of Democrats in the House, it doesn't matter much what Republicans do anyway. All they have to do is threaten to insult her and she will avoid confrontation.

  •  Gregory Wonderwheel (0+ / 0-)

    Can you say President Jeb Bush.  Jeb says no but brother George and Daddy think yes!

    Thank you for your numerous challenges to my Diary and comments.  You help me a great deal and keep me on my toes!

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