Recently, there has been a blizzard of editorials about the need for conservation of oil and gas. While I heartily agree with this position, I fear the American public is merely at tilting at windmills. Why? Because all these sermons about energy conservation lack both urgency and reality. And that is dangerously unacceptable
There is absolutely nothing new in what you are going to read here - and that is exactly why it is so interesting.
There is no gas "crisis" that has suddenly appeared. There are no "surprises" to $4/gallon gas. Everything - everything-that has precipitated this rise in price has been known for at least decades. So why is there so much shock and discussion?
Consider these facts:
· First and foremost, oil is a finite product! It was never if we were going to run out of oil...it was always when. The real problem is that no one ever seems to address that issue, as long as oil remains cheap. Gutless leaders avoided telling us that; the oil companies and automakers stonewall it; and consequently, Americans just don’t get it! And of course now, the leadership of our country is in the hands of two former oil company executives - both of whom lead us to believe we can "drill our way" out of this situation. That may be good for their compatriots in the oil industry, but it is no solution to this problem. In fact, it is counter-productive in a variety of ways.
· The major portion of world oil production has always been in the hands of despotic, uncaring, unreliable countries. Nothing new here.
· Americans have enjoyed the very lowest gas prices (and gas taxes) for decades; and we have known that forever.
· The oil companies are cleaning up in this apparently "new" crisis... and cleaning our pockets as well. We know that, too. Exxon made $15 Billion of Net Profit in the past one 6 month alone (that’s "billion" with a ""B" and "Net" with an "N"). Surprised? You shouldn’t be - it’s easily discovered from many financial sources. If, as President Bush says, we are in a "war", then I have always believed profiteering during a war bordered on immoral, if not illegal.
· Natural disasters, such as Katrina, are common, almost annual occurrences around the world, which periodically impede oil production. This is not new.
· The Energy Bill earlier passed by the Republican Congress had strong incentives for more drilling...and meager incentives for alternate energy, and limited emphasis on conservation. Again, crafted with the direction of the Bush team, it provided significant additional handouts to the oil companies, which is exactly what we do not need. The bill was widely reported - no surprises here either. The only possible surprise, to me, is the lack of outrage.
· Mass transit in our country is decades behind in development. The busses have a reputation for low class travel; the trains are woefully behind Europe and Asia; and local mass transit is far behind as well. But we know that.
So, if we know all this; and if it is not new; and if it will eventually have grave consequences, then why is nothing being done? And, why would I propose $10/gallon gasoline? Well, the second question answers the first. We just do not get it!
Incremental raises just pinch, but do not really hurt. The oil cartel is very clever about this - they keep price points high enough to gobble up unconscionable amounts of money, but low enough so we are not incented to seek alternatives. We continue to buy our SUVs, we burn fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow, and we complain. Under this system, no leader has emerged to tell us the Emperor has no clothes. Alternate energy sources continue to lag. And there is no really effective solution in sight. Worse yet, there is absolutely no urgency to this very critical and imminent issue. If you think $100/barrel oil is expensive now, consider what the last barrel removed from the earth will be worth. In fact, that barrel will likely end up in the Smithsonian as a relic of a past civilization. Hopefully there will be some sort of transit available to go see it!
Regarding alternate energy sources, I have for years examined the stock in a variety of Hydrogen, wind power and other alternate energy companies. I like to track these efforts. Without exception, these firms are small, under funded, losing money (few if any are profitable), and very much on the fringe of our economy. Plus, there is little coordination among them to synergize their efforts. Take Hydrogen for example. Yes, we can produce Hydrogen-powered vehicles, but the mass production for fuel, distribution, storage and other requirements to make it a viable fuel are decades away. The race to find a replacement for oil-based fuels, as well as the abundance of that resource, may already be lost.
And when will that be? I am not an oil expert, all we DO know is that there is only so much of it on earth....we are burning it by the billions of barrels each year....less is being discovered and all is harder to get...the emerging nations are coming online to exacerbate consumption...the world’s population is growing quickly...and it will run out. In 15 years? In 30 years? Even 40 years? What does it matter? At best it is a generation or two. Curiously, Saudi Arabia, which supplies 1/8 of the world’s production is quite secretive and unclear about its true remaining reserves. And more drilling only prolongs the demise of fossil fuels, and keeps us asleep. That is the real danger of drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Preserve - it is not a solution. In my mind, the only real solution is a shock so enormous and devastating that it will once and for all wake us up to the reality of the situation. At $10/gallon, that would get someone’s attention.
Maybe we could get a leader who tells us the truth of the situation, creates a national (or even international) full court press on alternate energy sources, and levies an excess profits tax on the oil companies. Especially one not wedded to the oil industry.
Maybe we can finally get people off the roads and onto a clean, fast, widely scaled mass transit system that will be built in years, not decades. Maybe Americans will discover the pleasures of travel in speedy, beautiful trains with first class service and downtown to downtown service. Maybe, for regional travel, busses will become cleaner and more attractive; and terminals will be located in desirable parts of towns.
But, none of this will happen with small incremental raises in the cost of gas; and there is the added problem that these small increases hurt the poor more than any others - especially the working poor who must travel to jobs. At $10/gallon, the outrage of the average worker would be so great and disasterous, action would be demanded -- not just complaining. So, maybe rather than slowly bleeding to death, we might be better "getting it on" and get our wake up call sooner than later.
So, what will it take? $10/gallon gasoline would surely do it. But there is one other solution that is even better. That is $3/gallon gas...and the hope that America finally wakes up, elects some gutsy leadership, and does all that is needed NOW to assure our continuing prosperity. Hello...is anyone listening?