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Let's see what Iowa has done for the race:

New Hampshire

        1/5-6  1/4-5  1/4   12/18  

Obama    38     39     37    28
Clinton  28     27     27    31
Edwards  18     18     19    18


National

        1/7  1/6  1/5  1/4  1/3

Clinton  33   36   38   38   41
Obama    29   25   25   26   24
Edwards  20   23   20   18   17


That national lead, and what it could mean for Hillary in the Super Tuesday states, is all she has going for her now that she's pretty much headed for defeat in NH, SC, and probably Nevada as well. She loses that, and she's got nothing else on which to fall back.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:30 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ed Schultz talking now about brokered convention (10+ / 0-)

    and that being her last firewall.

    I got tased in The Great Markos Candidate Meltdown Cranky Pants Sting of Ought 7

    by Walt starr on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:32:31 AM PST

  •  Edwards has gotten quite the national bounce as (13+ / 0-)

    well.  If he even manages to tie Clinton in NH, that will be extremely unexpected.

    The JSamuel Irregular
    This is going to be an election, Tim, it's not going to be an auction. - JRE

    by jsamuel on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:33:19 AM PST

  •  Nobody should be counting any chickens (11+ / 0-)

    Edwards is my choice but I'll take Obama over Hillary any day.

    "Lash those traitors and conservatives with the pen of gall and wormwood. Let them feel -- no temporising!" - Andrew Jackson to Francis Preston Blair, 1835

    by Ivan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:33:59 AM PST

  •  Premature to call NH, I think. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chicago Lulu, whitetiger

    I haven't seen anything from SC, but I can't imagine any result besides a buried HRC.

    "They say I need to be seasoned; they say I need to be stewed. They say, `We need to boil all the hope out of him -- like us -- and then he'll be ready.'"

    by Inland on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:34:22 AM PST

  •  That national lead (8+ / 0-)

    will collapse if Hillary loses the next 3-4 states (or even most of them). People don't like the smell of a loser, and it'll be impossible to overcome.

    Just my two cents, anyway.

    "People hate Bush and hate this war. It's that simple, and it's been true for quite some time" - Atrios

    by atrexler on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:34:32 AM PST

    •  Slow reaction time (0+ / 0-)

      Looking at Hillary's IA - NH reaction time, how fast she fix her opening strategy. I doubt she can change her tempo that much faster.

    •  remember 2004 when Kerry won (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kitebro, NancyK

      Iowa and NH, it had this snowball effect and people were jumping onto the bandwagon.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:57:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  oh absolutely (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, kitebro

        I feel like in 2004, electability was by far at the top of voter's minds, making the whole primary calendar ripe for a herd mentality after Kerry won Iowa.

        It seems folks are more into careful deliberation this time around, but the same dynamic can come into play. Especially if Obama gets 3-4 wins in a row under his belt.

        "People hate Bush and hate this war. It's that simple, and it's been true for quite some time" - Atrios

        by atrexler on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:19:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think her campaign has the gusto to rec- (0+ / 0-)

    over.

    It seems like her campaign is choosing tactics from the wrong arsenal.

    ::::

    ...Operation Rota is Closed... New Blog Coming Soon With Pictures!...

    by nowheredesign on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:34:37 AM PST

    •  She has a lot of money to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nowheredesign

      stay in this a long time but that longevity of staying in the race does not always turn into votes.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:58:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think that while money is still the critical (0+ / 0-)

        appendage, there is a fresh objectivity out there, and it is having a profound effect, despite the money.

        ::::

        ...Operation Rota is Closed... New Blog Coming Soon With Pictures!...

        by nowheredesign on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:02:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She had a lot of money (0+ / 0-)

        She has been spending it at an enormous rate.  Without a flow of new money coming in, she can't last too much longer at that rate of spending.  I don't think (no matter what Joe Trippi says) that the Clinton camp has so seriously misjudged their cash flow that they will be in trouble before Super Tuesday, but she won't have much of her current war chest left after that.

  •  A truly progressive party (14+ / 0-)

    A race between just Obama and Edwards (and our second tier candidates) would be a strong sign to the nation (and our Congress) that the Democrats are a truly progressive party looking out for the interests of everyone but the filthy rich.

    -fink

    Al Gore didn't lose in 2000. America did.

    by fink on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:35:16 AM PST

  •  she has events to fall back on. (0+ / 0-)

    That's about it.

    I will make them have it. I will stuff their mouths with Gold!--Aneurin Bevan (on the NHS)

    by Salo on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:36:59 AM PST

  •  Why all of these breathless commentaries (11+ / 0-)

    about the inevitability of Obama? I am confused about the greater good that these opinion pieces provide. The whole purpose of the primaries is to have a debate that reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. Not a reciting of polls that do not further or enhance the necessary struggle of the candidates in the arena. Any of the three top candidates, including Hillary, are worthy of becoming President. Let's keep talking about issues and strategies and not the horse race. Because when we talk about the horse race, we do not talk about substance.

    •  so old school. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Morgan Sandlin

      hope this isn't what we are doing.

      I will make them have it. I will stuff their mouths with Gold!--Aneurin Bevan (on the NHS)

      by Salo on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:38:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Debate is over. Independents have decided... (0+ / 0-)

      our nominee for us.

      •  Well...since you need us desperately in (11+ / 0-)

        the general I think we did you a favor.

        Independents have shown you who they will vote for..say "thank you".

      •  well since i understood that the majority of (0+ / 0-)

        independents are disaffected Republicans does that mean you think Republicans have chosen tht Democratic nominee. Never in my wildest imaginings could i have conjured up such a scenario, if true.  Extraordinary, what a difference a day makes.

        •  Actually, Iowa and New Hampshire (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Yoshimi, soccergrandmom, Foodle

          are historically noted for their "Independents". Not GOP or Dem, just Independents.

          You have to give them a product they will vote for..the Democratic Party did.

          •  thanks, even though I've lived here for close to (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Lepanto, Morgan Sandlin

            fifty years this is the first time i've paid really close attention to the nuts and bolts of how the sausages are made, to mix my metaphors. It is utterly fascinating and i am doing my best to explain it to my British friends, as well as understand it myself.

            The last time i was this interested and involved, albeit from the sidelines, was when Jimmy Carter was elected. I spent the evening in my New York apartment with a British cameraman and a jazz musician from New Orleans. Sadly they are both moved on now, would love to reprise the excitement of that night and the pride i felt when Carter walked down Pennsylvania Avenue to his inauguration.

            Ah, those were the days. I must be getting senile.

          •  Question for you: Iowa independents... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            soccergrandmom

            have to register Dem to participate in caucus, as I understand it.  Do they remain Dems or do they drop the affiliation?  If you have any info.

            •  Yes, they must register as Democrats (0+ / 0-)

              but they can do whatever they want after the caucus.  Next election or caucus they can re-register as anything they want - assuming it is the type of election that requires a party identity.  Or never bother to vote again.  

              Registering at the caucus is pretty much meaningless; in essence, it means that it's an open primary.  Then again, the local Democratic Party may start sending mailings to the new people and may call on them for assistance in campaigning, at which point we will see how many of them were sincere in claiming to be Democrats.  With any luck, a good chunk of the new registrants will start to vote regularly from now on, and will vote for Democrats.  

          •  It is true that there are many Indies in Iowa (0+ / 0-)

            and that's why the state keeps swinging from blue to red and back.

        •  Independants (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          milton333

          are people that like attention, like to feel special. They will be a big factor in the primaries but not so much in the General I suspect where first time voters will be much more important and therefore more courted.

          The end game is the presidency not the nomination

          by stevej on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:54:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  well... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Geotpf

            I am no longer sure about that, Steve.
            I have several friends who were either Democrats or Republicans for over 30 years who changed their registration to Independent in the last 2 years.

            I keep talking to people and running into people who are now Independent. For some, they did not want to affiliated with the party of Bush anymore as far as ex GOPers go.

            Lou Dobbs urges people to change their registrations to Independent and he does have his followers ( as odd as they may be ) who are doing this. And he does have a lot of viewers although I would not be caught dead watching that smirking, self righteous man.

            Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

            by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:07:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know who these self-identifying... (0+ / 0-)

          Independents were in Iowa?  I think NH independents are generally better known.  I hope the polling tomorrow provides better information.

        •  Independents are growing (3+ / 0-)

          There seems to a growing number of people changing their party affiliation to Independent. I will have to find a link of some articles I was reading about it but I do believe Independents have grown even since the last Presidential election. But, even if I am wrong, 40 pct of NH voters are Independents. So CAL has a point.

          Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

          by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:04:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  OK, color me dumb but I still do not (0+ / 0-)

            understand the role of independents in the general election. If they are registered as an independent can they then vote for whoever they want? Democratic or Republican, or do they actually need an Independent candidate to vote for?

            If i understand the system correctly the nominating conventions rely solely on the amount of delegates each candidate accrues in each state?

            •  In the general election... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              milton333, soccergrandmom

              ...Republicans can vote for Democrats and vice versa, and so can indies.

              In the primaries, it depends on the state (and the specific party in some cases).  Some states allow indies to vote in primaries, some do not.  Some states allow people to change their registration the day of the primary and then change it back the next day.

              •  exactly Geotpf (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                soccergrandmom

                In the General Election, any registered voter of any party can vote for whomever they want. Ie my Libertarian registered friends canvassed and voted for John Kerry, not the Libertarian candidate. But we have a Closed Primary system in my state. They cannot vote for a Democratic candidate in the primary or a Republican. They cannot get those ballots.

                In close primary states, you can only vote for your party's choices. You would have to change your registration before the deadline set in order for an Independent, a Libertarian, a Green to vote for a Democrat in the Primary.

                Come General Election, any registered voter anywhere in the country can vote for whomever they wish.

                Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

                by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:41:36 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  That ain't New Hampshire (0+ / 0-)

          40%+ of the voting populace in NH are "Independents"

          I support Barack Obama, I respect Edwards and Clinton, I will vote for the nominated Democrat.

          by nightsweat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:04:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Anecdotally, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CAL11 voter

          that is quite true in New Hampshire.  There's been a parade of independents on the airwaves the last several days, saying that they consider themselves moderate Republicans, that they usually vote in the Republican primary, but this time they're crossing over to vote for Obama.  Look at that Rasmussen poll.  No significant change in the numbers for Clinton or Edwards.  The change is all Obama; some of it is newly decided Democrats, but most of it is independents.  

          "Success is a level of violence where the people feel comfortable about living their daily lives." --George W Bush, May 2, 2007

          by mspicata on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:23:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  facts: Democrats chose Obama (0+ / 0-)

        But of course you already knew that, because you've seen the entrance polls as well as I have.

        Proud Sponsor of Hope '08
        My Political (and moral) Compass: -9.00, -8.72

        by bmozaffari on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:31:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  This Indendent is for Hillary; don't assume! (0+ / 0-)

        Why do people think Independents will flock to Obama?? Wrong!  Hillary is clearly the moderate candidate here (read: between a Dem and a Repub). I'm a California Independent voting for Hillary when that primary ballot arrives this week and so is my husband...

    •  Well, You're a Bit Late (22+ / 0-)

      Terry McAuliffe (then DNC chair, now Clinton campaign chair) designed a front-loaded primary schedule that would make for a very short campaign season. This is what Team Clinton wanted.

      Can't say how much I'm enjoying watching it blow up in his face.

    •  OK. (0+ / 0-)

      Looks like Obama and Edwards are winners and Clinton is a loser. That loser thing is certainly a weakness.

      Which issues would you like to discuss? The fact that the Clinton Campaign has resorted to swiftboat style attacks against both Obama and Edwards in a last ditch effort to win at any cost? That is a serious issue.

    •  Sadly, voters are sheep (9+ / 0-)

      There's no greater good that these opinion pieces offer - just a reflection of reality.  There are alot of voters who are very easily swayed by the voters in states which vote earlier.  That's just a primary campaign reality.  Issues just aren't what decides the winner of a primary (or general) campaign.

      If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

      by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:43:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  they might decide (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CA Pol Junkie

        a campaign (they have decided campaigns) if there were daylight between the candidates on the issues. I think we should acknowledge that it's pointless to carp about wanting more substance, because the substance is largely the same and largely acceptable from all 3. All that's left to discuss is "style"--because that leads to electability and to their ability to sell and thus implement these pretty good policies once they are in office.

        Some people point to what they claim are significant policy differences between their favorite candidate and another, but if you look at those arguments more closely, even they seem to be more about style.

        And, if you generally like their collective policies, we could be in a lot worse shape.

        Is it January yet?

        by JMS on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:50:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is daylight between the candidates (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NancyK, R Rhino from CT4

          I agree with kos that any of our candidates would be better than theirs. I would even agree that it would take a miracle for Edwards to emerge the candidate. That said, I disagree with the narrative that these candidates are all similar. There are very distinct differences in health care, energy policy, and philisophically in how they would handle opposition. I would say that even how they approach shoring up the economy is different enough to me.

      •  Presume they (0+ / 0-)

        are sheep only when they don't vote for your preferred candidate. (bit like the rest of us)

        The end game is the presidency not the nomination

        by stevej on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:57:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm leaning Obama (0+ / 0-)

          I've been leaning toward Obama pretty much from the beginning, so the sheep effect probably works in my favor this time.  As you can tell from my tag line, this has not always been the case.

          If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

          by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:17:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  that's why this system is nuts (0+ / 0-)

        Have a national round of voting in the primaries. One day or one weekend, whatever. Then you have your party candidate. Spare us the years of buildup and breathless reporting from places like Iowa that nobody cares about the day after the primaries have been held there.

        The other day I wanted to watch some news (world news) but all I could find on any of the TV news channels was about the Iowa caucuses. So sick of it. No wonder people are turning to the Web.

      •  The poll posting at this site contributes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        milton333

        to the attempt to sway voters one way or another without furthering any discussion about the candidates' vision or strengths or weaknesses. For example, because Edwards is trailing in NH and other areas, many diarists and commenters at this site dismiss his ideas simply because he cannot win, in their minds. Does that approach help the Dem party or does it simply help one of the candidates at the expense of the other candidates? The problem, as I see it, is that any of the top three are worthy of becoming President and Dems should focus some of their concern about how to beat the Repubs. Because no matter how giddy and effervescent the feeling about the inevitability of your chosen candidate at this point, there is absolutely no inevitability about that candidate winning the general election, be it Obama, Clinton, or Edwards.

        •  DailyKos voters vs all voters (0+ / 0-)

          DailyKos participants are highly informed voters, not necessarily subject to the sheep phenomenon of the electorate at large.  However, if the electorate moves away from someone's candidate, one faces a strategic choice of sticking with #1 in spite of long odds or going for the second choice candidate.

          General election matchups are really hard to project at this point, doubly so since we have no idea who the Republicans will nominate.  Especially after suffering through the "electable" argument in 2004, I think we ought to just nominate whichever of our quality candidates that we like best and fight the general election when we have our candidate.

          If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

          by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:25:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Chuck Todd on MSNBC (0+ / 0-)

        is saying there is a chance that Obama's support will slow because it is 11 days between NH and the next primary. I have serious doubts he is right and to me, that is still very frontloaded and primaries are coming fast.

        But I will take a wild guess and stab in the dark that perhaps Hillary's campaign is hoping Obama momentum slows because it is another 11 days until the next primary following NH and then some time before South Carolina.  I think that is their best bet. Personally, I hope that does not happen as I am more comfortable with Obama than Hillary even if Edwards is my first choice.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:12:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  4 weeks until the mega-primaries (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell

          There is still time for the narrative to change, but the problem for candidates is to have the massive cash needed to buy the media necessary to compete in California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.

          If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

          by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:21:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Request for Kos... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R Rhino from CT4

    Kos, if you could put the name of the polling source (i.e. Rasmussen, SUSA) in the post itself, that would be really helpful.

    I know it must seem immeasurably lazy and think to yourself, well, all you have to do is click, but besides that fact that I am not always working on my superbeloved and superfast MAC, I am also trying to keep track of polling by organization, as I imagine others are.

    I know you do it most of the time--I'm just asking if you could help out by making amental note to add it.

    Thanks for all you do, and in a shameless bit of pandering, I will now mention that it's time to post new pics of the kids. :)

    Civil behavior isn't about restraining from using insults or obscenities, it's about behaving like a fucking decent human being.

    by Casey Morris on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:37:37 AM PST

  •  Clinton finally answered questions after an event (5+ / 0-)

    Too little, too late. NHerites, I think, will go against her.

    Some bloggers in MA have been going up to NH to follow the candidates, you should check out Susan over at Below Boston. She's an admitted Edwards supporter but has been traveling all over New Hampster like, for 9 months, observing the primary race.

  •  Rubberstamping huh? (4+ / 0-)

    Interesting choice of words.....

    If only Kos was the kingmaker and he could be the one to lead the Rubber Stamp  Charge eh......!

    Overthrow the Government ~Vote~

    by missliberties on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:37:48 AM PST

  •  she'll always have (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    icebergslim

    inevitability!

  •  She could (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, milton333

    She could still do well on Super Tuesday, if she ekes out Florida.  It's the Giuliani question - if you go into Super Tuesday without a win, are you really viable?

    •  Moreover, let's talk superdelegates... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, milton333, Foodle

      and I think we'll have to look at the California polling to understand what the national trends may be doing.

      Civil behavior isn't about restraining from using insults or obscenities, it's about behaving like a fucking decent human being.

      by Casey Morris on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:40:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Florida is meaningless (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nina Katarina, icebergslim

      It will be ignored since it doesn't count.

      •  But (0+ / 0-)

        Iowa was a "meaningless" 2nd place for Edwards, since he actually got one fewer delegate than Hillary.  Hillary's "third place" finish, however, appears not to be meaningless, because now everyone is crowing over her "crushing defeat."

        Nina is talking about perception of a win in FL benefiting Hillary. Perception of a victory is all that Edwards has going for him at this point, because, in fact, he actually lost Iowa - he has the least number of delegates committed to voting for him at the convention.  Perception is apparently not meaningless.

        Thought is only a flash in the middle of a long night, but the flash that means everything - Henri Poincaré

        by milton333 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:54:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hopefully Hillary with throw the kitchen sink.... (8+ / 0-)

    ... at Obama and we can get a tiny feel for how'd handle Republican attacks. Go Hillary! Keep whacking away!

    There are two kinds of politicians. Those moved by polls and those who move polls. Guess which one I'm voting for.

    by crazymoloch on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:38:07 AM PST

  •  Last Debate (6+ / 0-)

    I thought Edwards did a great job in the last debate but the polling numbers don't reflect that. I was hoping for another second place finish for him but according to the polls it is unlikely.

    •  I was also... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Boston Boomer

      There is good news though.

      After Iowa he raised a million on line faster than he ever has before (I am happy to say I helped in that effort).

      After New Hampshire I'm sure there are others, like me, who will contribute again.

      Though not my guy right now I think he's a voice that needs to be heard.

    •  all the media have been saying (0+ / 0-)

      That Edwards has the best weekend and his debate performance was stellar. But as you said, that does not always translate into votes, especially for those not watching much cable news or who did not see the debate. Most people I know watched football instead because I live in PA and the Steelers were playing and lost.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:17:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There hasn't BEEN a poll taken (0+ / 0-)

      completely since the debate.

      Only Saturday and Sunday polls, which have shown a significant bounce.

      Is it enough to catch HRC?  We will see tomorrow.

      Edwards / Obama '08!

      Rick
      08 - Leaning Edwards, Obama, Kucinich, Gore, Clark
      -9.63 -6.92
      Fox News - We Distort, You Deride

      by rick on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:41:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  As the wins rack up (0+ / 0-)

    Obama will gain in the national lead and overtake Hillary.  But he must stay humble and never allow himself to get caught up in the "front runner" mode like Hillary did.

    And for those who keep harking up Edwards--I just do not see him as viable. He couldn't even win his state of NC for Kerry nor did he even help Kerry win a single southern state, including his birth state of SC.

    I do not think opinions of Edwards has changed greatly to help him do anything differently then he did in 2004.  I pray to God if Obama is the nominee he does not pick Edwards as his running mate.

    The American people are not the problem in this country; they are the answer--Sen. Barack Obama

    by FuPrez on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:38:42 AM PST

    •  he still beats all repubs hands down (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Lepanto

      that's not viability?

      Keep an eye out. Not someone to give up on.

      "Get informed, and let it change you."--wonderingmind42's chemistry professor

      by DemocracyLover in NYC on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:05:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  and (0+ / 0-)

        so does Obama.  So it comes down to who can win over moderate republicans and independents and still win the liberal base.

        Who has the better organization and the ability to raise the funds necessary in a national election.  

        And if its not Clinton, it is Obama.

        The American people are not the problem in this country; they are the answer--Sen. Barack Obama

        by FuPrez on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:20:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  for me it comes down to (0+ / 0-)

          who actually has a plan to achieve the ends we're talking about.

          Substance over style. I have no doubt that either candidate can handle the national.

          The amazing thing to me is how quickly people declare "it's all over" We are very much a 48 hour news cycle citizenry. So Obama gets the bounce and now he's got the "inevitability" mantle.

          Unfortunately the primaries are front loaded (thanks HRC) so it favors this kind of (non) thinking. But it doesn't mean it's a good way  to choose a candidate. I wouldn't make a business decision I had to live with this way. Or choose a mate I'm with for 4 to 8 years.

          "Get informed, and let it change you."--wonderingmind42's chemistry professor

          by DemocracyLover in NYC on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:46:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Edwards (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lepanto

      I don't buy the argument the VP should carry the home state. People vote for the President. Kerry lost NC not Edwards. In the 2004 Primary, Edwards trounced Kerry in NC, winning 52% to Kerry's 27%.

  •  Iowa (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LauraC, Foodle, Involuntary Exile

    definitely had some influence but I don't think it is fair to say this is a "rubberstamp" effect. Since Iowa, people have started payting attention to Obama more. And some of them like what they see. Iowa just helped push people to be less lazy.

  •  14% (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Geotpf, blitz boy, icebergslim

    That was what somebody said in a diary a few weeks ago. The bounce from winning Iowa in New Hampshire would be around 14%. Which is right on target! The gameplan working.

  •  An indictment of NH (4+ / 0-)

    As with 2004, rapid changes in New Hampshire are a symptom of their unworthiness to hold the important position they have given themselves.  If they really were so thoughtful about who they chose, they wouldn't follow Iowa like sheep.  (I'm leaning toward Obama, BTW, but I don't like it when voters are so easily swayed.)

    If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

    by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:39:33 AM PST

    •  NH Isn't the Problem (13+ / 0-)

      The short schedule is. There used to be a month between Iowa and NH. Lots of time for things to change. Oftentimes they did change.

      Now there's 5 days. Sorry, but that's just too short a time for anything but media-induced momentum.

      Team Clinton designed this schedule. Live by the sword . . .

    •  Speaking as one of the flock (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, Foodle, oldliberal

      New Hampshirites are not sheep. They take this whole process very seriously. Many had not made up their minds until the last few days. Many, myself included, were trying to decide between Obama and Edwards. The two are very similar, but Obama just has that ability to inspire, and I think that after GWB that is something this country craves.

      I was at an Obama event in Nashua this weekend with 3000 people. It took a long time to get that many people into the not huge high school gym (plus an overflow room), so I had lots of opportunity to talk to people. Some were still on the fence. Some were making a day of it, seeing multiple candidates in a day. Some though, had been inspired by Obama's victory speech in Iowa, not by the fact that he'd one, but by that speech. If you haven't listened to the Iowa victory speech, you owe it to yourself to.

  •  I really wanted Edwards/Richardson (0+ / 0-)

    That ticket would balance itself out, plus Richardson is a really funny guy. The vice president has no responsibilty other than to look good really, Richardson would go above and beyond. And make us smile in the process.

  •  Compressed Primary Calendar Design Crunch (4+ / 0-)

    Looking at the pace of this election primary, it's pretty obvious the breathing room is very small. It's all about pace and momentum. 2-5 days.. boom, another vote.  Very compressed.

    I wonder if Clinton crew was being too clever playing with "inevitable/momentum" strategy when they were pulling string designing new schedule.

    Super Tuesday is less than a month away. If Hillary lost NH, she will have to revamp her operation on the fly while doing southern battle.

    no way she is going to make it looking at her reaction time between Iowa/NH.

  •  No one wants to call the game in the 2nd inning (0+ / 0-)

    But (do you mind a continuation of the sports metaphors?), all sides brought their A game in Iowa and New Hampshire.  What new and improved element will anyone bring to SC? or Nevada?  What will the candidates say on Super Tuesday that hasn't been tested by the early primaries?

    I can be persuaded that any of the candidates can re-invent themselves in a month, but right now, I don't know how Obama loses the nomination.  

    Sure, it's just the second inning.  But the first inning was so decisive, and the same players are coming out on the field for each of the innings.  There is nothing else on the bench.

    •  Obama is a well-balanced team, and can... (0+ / 0-)

      play in any ballpark.

    •  maybe not.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      ....the strategy has to change for super Tuesday. No one can run a ground game in all those states like they did in Iowa. Clinton's warchest has yet to have it's last word. I still think she is toast.

      •  I forgot who said this on Tim Russert yesterday (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Geotpf

        on his show, the other one has beside MTP, who said..( I think it was David Gregory)and basically he said..no exact words but close...

        Teddy Kennedy stayed in for the long haul even after Carter was beating him because of the Kennedy legacy. He felt responsible for that and for seeing it through. So Hillary may stay in this for the long haul because she carries the Clinton legacy on. And she may want to stick with it because of that and go longer than some candidates will.

        He does make a good point I had not thought of. Hillary could still lose a lot but stay on for reasons beyond winning.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:28:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  When it's 30-3 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, bwintx

      In the 2nd inning, the game is over.

    •  Actually, I think a lot of people want to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mightymouse

      call the game and the season and move on to the World Series.  I'd like to see our candidates tested for awhile longer, myself.

      "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

      by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:56:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe it's just me (0+ / 0-)

        but I feel about this primary the way I felt in the opening minutes of the Hawaii/Georgia game.  In my heart, I really thought it would be a good game, but once the teams took the field, it became clear that it was a severe mismatch.

        If tomorrow turns out to be  a blowout, I'd say this thing is pretty much over.

        I want to rule this kingdom/ Make sweet the breeze now defiled/ Dethrone the evil prince's iron fists/ In velvet gloves of sin

        by aztecraingod on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:24:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, here's the scenario (0+ / 0-)

          If Obama wins handily tomorrow, he then cruises into South Carolina with a ton of momentum, and I am betting he wins in a walk there with all the momentum coming out of wins in IA and NH.  At that point, he goes into Super Duper Tuesday with 3 major victories to Clinton's none, and I think that will seal the deal.  

          It's hard to see a scenario in which she prevails if Obama beats her by double digits tomorrow.  I guess if she can somehow pull out a victory in SC, or at least make it close, then maybe.  Honestly, I just don't see it.  

          "The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting." Milan Kedrun

          by Guy Fawkes on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:45:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  me too although (0+ / 0-)

        I hope Hillary is not the nominee, I would like to see the candidates stay in this race a good while longer. I would like to see this played and the candidates continue to get practice fending off criticism.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:29:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't want Hillary to be the nominee. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell

          It would be great if she would drop out, but I doubt she will.  I'd just like Obama to be tested a little bit before he goes up against the Republican noise machine.

          "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

          by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:10:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I guess , remembering 2004 (0+ / 0-)

      where many did not think Kerry would cruise through the primaries so easily, including myself, were shocked with the bandwagon effect for John Kerry.

      Granted, I ended up liking Kerry a great deal but I did not start out that way and it was staggering how easily he sailed through the primaries. I suppose I look at that and think it will happen again with whoever wins both IA and NH. But I could be wrong as Kerry was not going up against the Clinton machine, either but still. And Kerry sailed through and Obama is more dynamic and inspiring than John Kerry and a more appealing candidate as well.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:25:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hillary is the most electable! (0+ / 0-)

    Polls like this should show that Hillary is really the most electable candidate.

    We want Universal Health Care Access, fiscal responsibility,  and fix our reputation around the world--thus we need a Democrat in the WH.

    Thus we need to elect the most electable candidate.

    It really is a mistake to choose Obama as our Dem candidate.  

    His experience will make him lose.

    Perhaps in 4 years plus more accomplishments to his name,  Obama can be competetive in the GENERAL.

    But what accomplishments does he have in his name.

    Fully fund an 18 month withdrawal to be crafted by committee of military, foreign diplomacy experts and Sunni-Shiite reconciliation leaders, etc

    by timber on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:40:35 AM PST

    •  He has more legislative accomplishments (3+ / 0-)

      than Hillary does.  

      I don't mind you giving praise to Hillary, but you lost me when you said "it really is a mistake to choose Obama".  

      he has proven that he expands the party and brings in tons of new voters, which is exactly what makes him the most electable of our candidate (all of whom are very electable).

      "Fired Up!" "Ready To Go!" Obama '08

      by bawbie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:42:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  SCHIP, 2 term senator (0+ / 0-)

        Obama is just in his second year as a senator.

        Fully fund an 18 month withdrawal to be crafted by committee of military, foreign diplomacy experts and Sunni-Shiite reconciliation leaders, etc

        by timber on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:45:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  4th year as Senator, actually.... (0+ / 0-)

          2005, 2006, 2007 and now 2008.

          There are two kinds of politicians. Those moved by polls and those who move polls. Guess which one I'm voting for.

          by crazymoloch on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:49:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  SCHIP was a compromise (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell

          between Ted Kennedy and Orrin Hatch to take children out of Medicaid and give the states block grants, while Dems wanted to get more covered in Medicaid so all kids were equal.  

          What role did Hillary play in that?

          "Fired Up!" "Ready To Go!" Obama '08

          by bawbie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:03:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  So you supported Dodd and Biden (0+ / 0-)

          Before they dropped out?  They had many more terms as Senator.

          Coburn-Obama - most important government transparency bill since the post-Watergate reforms.

          I support Barack Obama, I respect Edwards and Clinton, I will vote for the nominated Democrat.

          by nightsweat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:09:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  How about putting up a comparison chart (0+ / 0-)

        in which you show Obama's legislative accomplishments next to Hillary's?  That would be really helpful for those of us who want to vote on policy issues.

        "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

        by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:59:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Their voting records (3+ / 0-)

          are frustratingly similar, that's why all these flamewars are rather amusing to me.

          Obama

          Clinton

          Edwards

          I want to rule this kingdom/ Make sweet the breeze now defiled/ Dethrone the evil prince's iron fists/ In velvet gloves of sin

          by aztecraingod on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:30:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  exactly aztec (0+ / 0-)

            I feel exactly the same way as you.

            Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

            by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:32:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I know they are. (0+ / 0-)

            But I think Baubie was referring to Obama's legislative achievements in Illinois.  I was thinking he or she could use his IL legislative record to back up his/her argument that Obama has more legislative achievements than Hillary does.  At least most of the Obama supporters cite his IL record more than his US Senate record.  

            But so far, the only IL legislation I've heard about is a health care plan for children that Obama worked out with industry lobbyists and a law that forced police to videotape confessions.  I'm sure there must be more, and someone who has the information should be able to quickly put together a chart like that.

            "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

            by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:37:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  electable? (4+ / 0-)

      You mean like how John Kerry was electable?  You'll excuse me if I find such arguments highly unpersuasive.  I think we ought to just choose the candidate our party likes best.

      If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

      by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:44:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Amen Junkie (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CA Pol Junkie

        as I recall how Kerry supporters kept saying that to win us over in 04. Granted by the early summer, I truly came to respect and like Kerry a great deal. He would have been a fantastic President.

        But having said that, that was all we heard over and over and over again. So that word, " electable", tends to grate on my nerves. As face it, Primary Season 2004, Kerry people did keep on this and on this and repeated it again and again.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:37:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  All I can say to that is... (0+ / 0-)

      Timberrrrrr!!!!!

      Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

      by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:50:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  WRONG! Hillary is totally UNelectable. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lepanto

      Hillary is the Republican candidate in the Democratic primary. She is almost totally unelectable. Here's why:

      - She loses all the Republicans. They hate her guts. - She loses everyone, myself included, who doesn't ever want Bill back roaming the White House. He was a good President, but he let me down in the end, and he doesn't deserve to go back. Plus, what happens if he can't keep it in his pants after she gets elected? 12 more years of Republican presidents. - She loses neanderthals that won't vote for a woman. - She loses independents and some democrats who would have voted for a different candidate, and maybe would have volunteered for them, but instead stay home. - She loses the significant population that find her simply unlikable.

      The reason Hillary has been the heir apparent in the Media for over a year is because that's who the Republicans want to run against.

      ~Travis

      •  and those who (0+ / 0-)

        respect, admire and thank their Clintons for all the good they did and for their service. But many do not want Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton ( I do not know about you all, but I hear that a great deal)....and some do not want to go back to the Clinton administration and want to move on.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:38:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  actually in those one on one polls (0+ / 0-)

      Edwards does better when matched against each Repub. candidate and Obama does better than Hillary when matched up one on one. I would like to see this poll post Iowa to look for changes. But Edwards actually did better one vs one and that was surprising and interesting.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:31:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  About That Rubber Stamp..... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Spit, Boston Boomer, milton333, votermom

    I don't want to take anything away from Barack Obama or his campaign, because he's a great candidate who I think will make a great President, and has a campaign that has served him well, but....

    Is anyone else just a little disturbed that so much of the electorate has shifted in the past 72 hours?

    Maybe it's a comment on society, the power of the media, and the nominating process, but we've seen a large number of people shift their votes for probably no other reason than seeing a headline telling them who won Iowa. Not a candidate's issues or programs, but just finding out who won. Does that strike anyone else as a crazy way to pick a President?

    •  Pick a President? (0+ / 0-)

      come one now... it's not that, it's the crowds, the speeches, the debate.  It wasn't just the newspaper articles

      At the end of the Day, you can't deny that Obama has the Biggest Upside Potential Obama/Richardson '08

      by kubla000 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:47:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  some one talked upthread (0+ / 0-)

      about the short schedule. Imagine a schedule that allowed time for a polls bump (which is natural) and then time for that to either a) be built upon and solidified by a solid candidate or b) be undermined by other candidates working to win.

      We can't see that happening because of the less-than-one-week schedule of the early states. Yikes! I know my head is spinning on overload since the day of Iowa!

    •  depends how you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R Rhino from CT4

      want to look at this scenario. This is how I see it. Obama and Clinton have been competing for roughly the same voters or demographic pie. And the general mood is that people like Obama, but they have been afraid that other people wouldn't vote for Obama and they didn't want to back a loser. A state like New Hampshire should be very friendly to Obama--suited demographically and tempermentally. So they always liked him--the only thing holding them back was fear that they might be backing a loser. Once Iowa signalled that wasn't the case, they felt free to back him.

      If Edwards (or someone similar) had been the winner in Iowa, his bounce would be less, and possibly not enough to take a lead in New Hampshire, because people in New Hampshire were less inclined to him to begin with, regardless of what happened in Iowa. That's what's happening to Huckabee.

      So instead of making blanket statements about the worthiness or worthlessness of this or that, it helps to look at the specifics of why certain scenarios play out the way they do.

      Is it January yet?

      by JMS on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:57:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  what I find more alarming (0+ / 0-)

      is when people choose their president based on who "has christ in their heart".  I actually heard people who were rallying around Huck in Iowa state that, "you can learn the job of being president but you can't learn to love Jesus".    Scary stuff.  

      Compared to that, chosing one's candidate based on who won a caucus seems  downright genius.

      •  you hit the nail on the head Laura (0+ / 0-)

        there are people who will vote for Huck even if he was an Ax murderer and even if he promised to raise taxes 1000 times over and have us all live in cages.  There are people who will vote for him simply because he is an Evangelical, scary stuff.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:43:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rim, the people who shifted (0+ / 0-)

      were backing Clinton because she was inevitable.  They are just jumping on the new winner's bandwagon.  Nothing too crazy.    

    •  my personal opinion (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      is that there was a fear (before Iowa) that the nation would never elect an African American.  Iowa started to prove different.  NH polls are reflective, I think, of many people who agree with Obama, but were "safe-voting" for Clinton.

      The perception of electability is what's shifting.


      "We don't need more heat in Washington, we need more light." -Barack Obama

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:23:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  good point (0+ / 0-)

      There are those who just jump to the winner. But I do not want to insult those who made the change due a number of factor like learning more about Obama and liking what they are hearing. As there are people making informed decisions as well as those just doing the bandwagon thing. We cannot insult those who are making these choices based on liking what they are hearing and seeing.

      Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

      by wishingwell on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:40:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Calling herself inevitable was a dead end (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inland, The Other Steve, icebergslim

    Bill Clinton didn't need to call himself inevitable because he was the strongest candidate, a much more powerful argument. Hillary accepted she is a "compassionate misanthrope" who doesn't connect with the public so she didn't try to inspire or charm. Her position is, she is the only viable option we have. Once Obama established himself as a viable option, Hillary lost her case for being the nominee.

  •  People don't understand. (8+ / 0-)

    Yes, she raised 100M, but she spent a shitload of it in Iowa.  As Obama, but it is OK to spend, but you got to make sure you are still on par to RAISE the money.

    That is her problem here.  If she loses tomorrow, that money is drying up, it already is on freeze pending tomorrow and Obama's coffers are piling up.

    Q4 will tell it all.

    She has run a lousy campaign from October on and whatever happens, she and her "Rovian" spinmeister, Penn, deserves it.

  •  Don't get me wrong I like it that Obama's winning (5+ / 0-)

    but i have a problem with some one state making our choice.

    That's all.  In fact, I finf it APPALLING and non-democratic at its core.

    Hillary lost the nomination because she ran a general election in a primary. The hubris is astounding. Love the Kyl-Lieberman vote, hon.

    by BoyBlue on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:43:44 AM PST

    •  HAHAHA...... Even if rubber stamping is the.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Foodle, Involuntary Exile

      .... dynamic behind the NH numbers, it is beyond silly to call it non-democratic. People are still making their own choices. Foolishly, maybe. But its still their own choice and clearly 'democratic'.

      There are two kinds of politicians. Those moved by polls and those who move polls. Guess which one I'm voting for.

      by crazymoloch on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:48:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hillary now resorts to Tears / Or Cracking? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RobertInWisconsin, bwintx, whitetiger

    Is this a Muskie Moment?

    A Britney Moment?

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Exhausted and facing the prospect of losing the second test of her primary campaign, HIllary Clinton's voice broke and she fought back tears at the close of a sedate event in a Portsmouth coffee shop.

    She expressed the sheer difficulty of heading out to the trail each day -- "It's not easy," she said -- and suggested she faced "pretty difficult odds."

    And with audible frustration and disbelief, she drew the contrast between her experience and Senator Barack Obama's that suggests that her campaign's current message -- the question of who is ready -- matches her profound sense that she alone is ready for the job.

    Judging by the comments pilling up on Ben's Blog, this is a Britney moment and few are buying it

    At the end of the Day, you can't deny that Obama has the Biggest Upside Potential Obama/Richardson '08

    by kubla000 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:46:14 AM PST

    •  Oh, my. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Involuntary Exile

      Not the time for tears.  Tears are for funerals.

      "They say I need to be seasoned; they say I need to be stewed. They say, `We need to boil all the hope out of him -- like us -- and then he'll be ready.'"

      by Inland on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:49:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do you think she'll shave her head? n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RobertInWisconsin, kubla000

      Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

      by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:51:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  How Republican of you. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Boston Boomer, bwintx

      Are you sure you wouldn't like to take a couple shots at Thomas Eagleton, too?

      May God help me resist the temptation to hold Obama's supporters against him.

      by phenry on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:56:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We could always make fun of Ed Muskie too. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not a Clinton supporter, but I find the hatred of her here disturbing.

        If Obama is really the inevitable nominee now, why not have some discussion about how he will handle the general election campaign against a Republican candidate?

        "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

        by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:06:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Look - if Hillary handles (0+ / 0-)

          a question in a coffeeshop about 'who does your hair?' and in front of cameras ends up rambling about 'woe is me, this is soooo hard' and sheds tears, how the hell would she handle a terrorist attack ?  How would she handle the Republicans bringing up the infidelity and all the other nasty attacks that they had planned after the 'inevitable' Clinton nomination ?

          Or maybe this whole 'tears' thing is just staged for the cameras. After all, a couple of pundits said recently that 'Hillary  needs to show more emotion.'

          Or maybe she heard her husband's comments earlier today  in NH saying 'I can't make her male, I can't make her younger.'

          This is embarrassing !!

          •  I don't care what Hillary does. (0+ / 0-)

            I never thought she would win the nomination.  I'm a lot more interested in some serious discussion of how we will handle attacks on Obama.  The Republicans use race baiting as they always do and they will attack him for his lack of experience, especially in foreign policy.  But Obama supporters blissfully laugh off any suggestions that Obama can be hurt by Republican attacks.  It's bizarre.

            "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

            by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:01:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  re: I don't care what Hillary does (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Boston Boomer

              "But Obama supporters blissfully laugh off any suggestions that Obama can be hurt by Republican attacks.  It's bizarre."

              I couldn't agree with you more Boomer. They're riding the wave I guess.

              •  Yes, and I'm not going to run away (0+ / 0-)

                and hide.  I've really grown attached to Daily Kos and there are so many people here that I respect.  But I'm really embarrassed by a lot of what has been going on here lately.  It actually looks like the nomination is about to be hijacked by a lot of people who don't really know what they're doing.  I hope Obama is better prepared than his fans.

                "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

                by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:17:23 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  Put a fork in her... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    whitetiger

    ...she's done!

  •  Brokered or not, it's Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    admill, TomY, whitetiger

    With Edwards out of the race, Obama would be killing Clinton as nearly all of Edwards votes would go to Obama.  The same trend would be true for Edwards if Obama was no longer in the race, but probably not as dramatic and probably less likely given the standings.  I'd expect most Clinton votes to go to Obama should she fold.  In short, brokered or not, this looks like Obama at this point.

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

    by accumbens on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:48:09 AM PST

    •  could you just point me to polling or sumfin (0+ / 0-)

      that shows math on this.  Like a poll among Edwards supporters, in any state, showing their second preference?  I realize that a lot of things kind of point to this, but am curious to see numbers.  Thank you.  It would just ease my mind some more as an Obama supporter.

      •  Like Chertoff (0+ / 0-)

        and Bush, it's just my gut feel.  8+}

        Seriously, I don't know of polls on this - unless there are some numbers from Iowa on second choices - but I can't imagine it any other way.  In fact, I'd expect most Edwards supporters to choose "none of the above" before they'd go for Clinton.

        The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

        by accumbens on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:12:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I can't point to data, but... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        accumbens

        I can't point to hard data that says that Obama and Edwards are splitting the same vote, but anecdotally I strongly believe it's true. I've talked to dozens of people here in New Hampshire who are trying to decide between Obama and Edwards, and I have never met one trying to decide between Hillary and either Obama or Edwards.

        I've also talked to campaign staff for both the Edwards and Obama campaigns who have pretty much acknowledged that dynamic. If either Obama or Edwards drops out of the race early on, Hillary is dead.

  •  Comeback Kid 2.0 (6+ / 0-)

    Please don't write off the Clintons and keep lowering expectations.  

    In 2004, Kerry could capitalize off IA/NH by winning five of seven primaries just a week later, cementing his status.  

    Clinton, however, has a full month to right the ship with two one-at-a-time primaries (NV in 11 days, SC seven later) and a gimme in Michigan before the 2-5-08 onslaught.  

    As I've said before, put her on 60 Minutes next week (just like she did with Bill when he needed a comeback in 1992), have her talk about how his infidelities made her stronger, talk more personally than she ever has before, and she'll have plenty of time to make this a race.

    I would never write off a Clinton this soon.

  •  Do people really change their votes? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran

    This Iowa effect has always bothered me.  Winning Iowa gives a candidate a bump in the POLLS, but does it actually change the VOTE in later states?  There is no way to know for sure, of course, because we don't know what the actual vote would have been without Iowa having happened. But the very idea kind of scares me.  It's OK I suppose if people say "maybe I should take another look at that guy" and get hooked, but if they hadn't heard of Obama yet, how informed could they be?  But if people say: "I was going to vote for Clinton, but people in Iowa liked Obama better so I must too."  I really, really, would like to think that is not how we choose our Presidents.

    "I beseech you,... think it possible you may be mistaken." -- Cromwell/Bronowski

    by jockyoung on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:50:33 AM PST

    •  Dems want a winner. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Boston Boomer, oldliberal

      I think a lot of people felt obliged to support Hillary because they were being forcefed her "inevitability" through the corporate media.  Now that this has been shaken they're scanning the horizon and they see one big train a 'comin.

      They want to be on that train.

      Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

      by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:55:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I sure do want a winner. (0+ / 0-)

        I just never thought Hillary could win the general election.  I'm not sure Edwards or Obama can either, though.

        "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

        by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:08:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I look at it this way. (0+ / 0-)

          The racists will never vote Dem anyway. They won't vote for Obama either. So there's no real net loss based on the race factor. The big factor in this race will be women. I think that women will like Obama better than Hillary, for a number of reasons.  He's handsome and articulate. He seems trustworthy. His voice (as much as I hate to cite Glenn Beck's talking points) is more appealing and authoritative.  The majority of voters will decide on personal cues such as these, not the issues that galvanize the base.

          Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

          by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:21:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I disagree with you about race. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            milton333

            I believe is an issue that Republicans will use with unrestrained glee and that they will have success.  Everyone is racist, as Shanikka's recent highly recommended diary pointed out.  The Republicans just have to appeal to people's baser insticts.  They will find ways to do that, I have not doubt.

            As for women, you could very well be correct.  I can only speak for myself.  I'm a woman and I was extremely impressed with Obama fron the first time I hear him speak in 2004.  I contined to feel that way for quite a long time.  I was thrilled when he was elected to the Senate and I hoped all along that he would run for President.  But now my early impressions of Obama have changed.  I've looked more closely at his record and listened to a lot more speeches.  Now I don't find him very likeable at all.  For me, the "charisma" has disappeared.  I'm probably not typical, but that has been my experience.

            "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

            by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have no doubt the GOP will race-bait (0+ / 0-)

              That's what they do best.  
              I question whether that will prove an effective tactic against Mr. Obama in the key states.

              Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

              by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:42:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                In MO/KS, I've heard more than one person say they're "not voting for Tiger Woods."  Self-styled independents and at least one Dem.  I think there's a lot of east and left coast thinking that only Republicans are racist, and we only have to worry about this in the south.  Good, bad, or indifferent, and whether or not it should matter to your vote, it's a mistake to assume that "race-baiting" will be a minor problem only in states we would have lost anyway.  (I think, with Gov. Sebelius and local sentiment, there's a good chance KS could swing Dem this election.)

                Thought is only a flash in the middle of a long night, but the flash that means everything - Henri Poincaré

                by milton333 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:05:39 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Good point. A lot will depend on the GOP nominee. (0+ / 0-)

                  If it's McCain independent whites will justify their racism internally by telling themselves they like McCain because he's "independent," rather than white.  

                  I think the youth vote may actually turn out in record numbers in this election, though, which is another why I think Obama has an edge.  And the boomer vote is creeping up in age to the point where many may vote what their precious kids want. That's another factor that's received scant attention.

                  Who was Bush_Horror2004, anyway?

                  by Dartagnan on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:38:17 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Could be undecideds making a choice, could be (0+ / 0-)

      independents changing which primary they will be voting in.  I don't know.  There are people paid to dissect polls, and I'm not one of them.

      "They say I need to be seasoned; they say I need to be stewed. They say, `We need to boil all the hope out of him -- like us -- and then he'll be ready.'"

      by Inland on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:58:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm a Hillary Fan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    milton333

    but I gather that's because I'm 63 and a man--therefore passe--gg

    From my point of view--Edwards is as phony as 3$ bill and the most distrustful. His wife's groovy though

    Obama is simply riding the 'abh/throw all the washington bums out' that comes with the public's now total disgust with politics in general. When the wave moves in your direction, simply get on your board and ride it-the public would elect a donkey if the donkey had been running instead

    It's very sad for me to sit through what is happening here. H is by far the most presidential-imo-but she doesn't have a ghost of a chance..Such is life

    •  What makes you think Obama wants to (0+ / 0-)

      throw the bums out?  I don't get that vibe at all.

      "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

      by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:10:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  clarification (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Boston Boomer, milton333

        The  overall mood of the electorate is decidively negative as it pertains to gridlock and the results under Fratboy for the last 8 years. My suspicion is that, at the margin, Americans are ashamed of the Bush crowd and are also deeply angry at the terrible image that this country has offshore. So virtually anyone who personifies "the past" and back room deal doing is gonna suffer on the D side.

        This is so much an Obamamania effect as it is a 'get the establshment'/generation  effect. Folks over 50 were very recently 40-23 for H and folks under 50 were 47-18 Obama per CNN

        To me, Obama is a raw rookie lightweight and H is the Queen Bee that most youthful types would love to knock into the ocean. It doesn't really matter what Obama's policies are nor whether or not he would become a deer frozen in the headlights of his first crisis. All that matters at present is that he is not Hillary.

        Dumb way to choose a CEO imo

        •  I totally agree with you. (0+ / 0-)

          But I don't see any evidence that Obama wants to make systemic changes in the political system.  I think he like the system.

          "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell

          by Boston Boomer on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:41:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  it doesn't matter (0+ / 0-)

            what Obama will do or not do--ALL that matters at present is that he is not Hillary---Obama well knows that he doen't need to con the public in order to win. All he has to do is simply keep doing what he's doing--don't answer tough questions (eg 'what would you do if the US was attacked with a suitcase nuke'), don't go negative, above all don't take unpopular stands.

            The reality that the overall electorte is this gullible speaks volumes as to its disgust with politicins.

            As much as I remain a Hillary fan (Bill to me was a big dissapointment given what he had going for him coming in)--H to me is the more impressive of the two--She should have seen this coming and not run.
            While I think she is head and shoulders a much better choice than Obama, she simply ain't gonna win.

    •  I kind of disagree with you-- (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oldliberal

      For one thing, if it's just a matter of Obama was simply riding the throw-all-the-bums-out mindset, then it should be Edwards leading the pack.  Not just the rhetoric, but also the fact that Edwards IS the most "outsider" of them, I think.  On the other hand, can I say here-- as it will probably slip by unnoticed-- that I got to agree Edwards comes across as a total phoney. Here on DKos, sometimes I can't believe my ears. Here is a man who, in my perception, is obviously a poseur and an opportunist, but it's like I see an object as green that all these other people see as orange.  The only reason I give him a benefit of a doubt is his wife, who comes across as a sincere, idealistic person--i.e. how could Edwards be such a phoney when his wife's like that

      •  Edwards (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oldliberal

        There is a professional like and a private life. In private and at close quarters Edwards might well be a terrific guy

        What I'm referring to his professional life. He comes across as the typical trial lawyer who is trying to sway the jury. He well knows that to be at all viable he has to create a niche within which to operate. He knows that O has the 'change' niche and that H has the 'experience' niche Edwards knows that he has to cultivate the 'bash the corporations/special interests'niche---That will keep in the game for a bit

        But it's a losing strategy in the end because most the of the more insightful folks can see through it.

        In his professional life he seems very slippery to me. On a 1-1 with Obama, he would lose hands down as I see it. I must say I am astonished at the extent of his support on this board.

  •  Has Rassmussen changed their polling model (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Boston Boomer

    to reflect the new reality of young voter turnout?

    Democratic Candidate for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)
    Court certified Marijuana Expert

    by ben masel on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:55:51 AM PST

  •  Rasmussen (0+ / 0-)

    It's clear that Hillary's slipped in NH, but I'm not sure how much I trust the Rasmussen numbers. They seemed to have Obama 5-10 points higher than her a day or two before the other polling firms did. That could just mean that their poll is more prescient, but as someone who worked in market research for four years, it's far more likely that their poll should be viewed as an outlier for the moment.

  •  I just realized last night why Iowa is important (0+ / 0-)

    I was watching the debates, replayed on CNN.  I tended to like this one

    If we'd had to make our choices based solely on debates and advertising, I don't think Obama would have done as well as he has.

    This is why having a couple of small states in the beginning is better.

    You keep tilting at windmills, but thus far, none of your complaints have really stuck, and none of your solutions make things better.

  •  When Dems wake up on November 8 2008... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Boston Boomer

    and there is another repub in the white house the media will be to blame just like it was in 2000 and 2004, and in some part the so called progressive blogs.

    If Obama is the dem nominee, he will be defeated in the National election based on one or both of the following:  1) the media will not vett him and if a dem does (see HRC) they get creamed in the press.  Why is Obama getting a cake wake to the nomination?? Obama rhetoric does not match his record.  2) Racism.

  •  I don't like the early states setup (0+ / 0-)

    myself.  Sorry but people are, by nature, mostly followers.  Get caught up in excitement easily, jump on the bandwagon, root for the winning team, whatever you want to call it.  This allows states like Iowa and NH to have an undue influence on the outcome.  

    Easily fixed though, just make Feb 5th (or whenever)the day for ALL primaries and caucuses.  Then no one State will have any more influence due solely to their schedule and the media hype around their results.

    ...honor is a harder master than the law. It cannot compromise for less than 100 cents on the dollar and its debts never outlaw. - Mark Twain, a Biography

    by billd on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:09:58 AM PST

  •  Obama's Future? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    milton333

    Obama wins the Democratic nomination for President while John McCain wins the Republican nomination.The G.O.P. "Swift Boaters" go into overdrive against Obama, stressing among other things, 1)Obama's real estate deal with Tony Rezko, 2) Barack Hussein Obama, repeat, Barack Hussein Obama, repeat, etc, etc,etc. Obama, who has had only one competitive battle in his political carrer(against Rep. Bobby Rush, which he lost) is put on the defensive the remainder of the campaign.McCain beats Obama in the general election. Obama returns to Illinois to run for re-election as Senator from Illinois but is now viewed as "damaged goods" and is challenged in the primary by A.G. Lisa Madigan. Obama discovers the price to paid by endorsing a candidate, Alexi Giannoulias,that House Speaker Mike Madigan does not like, Mike Madigan uses his influence to dry up money and man-power for Obama's re-election. Lisa Madigan becomes the new junior Senator from Illinois, Obama out of politics      

  •  Obama wins NH and becomes national polls leader (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bsmcneil, oldliberal, whitetiger

    You watch

  •  What's with the rubber stamp metaphor? (4+ / 0-)

    Does anyone seriously believe that Iowans pick the president?  Does anyone seriously believe that the decisions of Iowans cause New Hampshire voters to follow like sheep, that the two states combined overpower the thinking of the rest of the country?  GMAFB!

    People watched the Edwards and Clinton "on to New Hampshire" speeches chock full of "I, I, I," then watched the Obama victory speech filled with "you, you, you."  He looked and sounded like a statesman, like someone American's could be proud of as "leader of the free world," and they've decided they like him.  It has nothing at all to do with a rubber stamp.  People make up their own minds.  They may be making up those minds based on an emotional response to a few minutes of video coverage, but their gut opinions are based on what they see and hear from the candidates, not so much on how this or that state voted.

    If there's a problem with rubber stamp primaries and people acting like sheep because they make their gut choices based on a few minutes of video, explain to me how a national primary helps.

    I want to live in the future, not in the past.

    by Involuntary Exile on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:18:59 AM PST

  •  In the Republican debates, (0+ / 0-)

    the fronrunners, Romney, McCain, Guillani, Huckabee, Thompson still support this doofus. Oy vey!

     title=

  •  Hillary's secret weapon? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    milton333

    I haven’t seen anything on the topic of Democratic Super Delegates, and the fact that Clinton is all ready way ahead...
    DELEGATES

    Clinton 158

    Obama 89

    Edwards 26

    Richardson 20

    Dodd 15

    Biden 8

    Kucinich 1

    Gravel 0

    Super Delegates

    The fool who thinks he is a fool is for that very reason a wise man; But the fool who thinks he is a wise man is rightly called a fool.

    by chanbo on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:25:54 AM PST

  •  Hi, I'm Barakstar Obama and I will be (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    R Rhino from CT4

    your next President.  I know this because as I just told my minions in New Hampshire today, "At some point a light will virtually shine down on you, and you will have an epiphany, and you will say, I must vote for Obama, I must vote for Obama."  

    Now I know I don't have much experience, but I have as much as Abraham Lincoln did.  Granted, that's kinda far to have to go back and the world was a different place then, but, I'm qualified, just believe it because I said so.  How's that koolaid, sweet enough?

    If you listen closely to my speeches, you'll see that I am a self-licking ice cream cone, a dreamcicle, if you will.  The flavor of the week is Hillary Bashberry.  Yummy for my tummy and yours!!

    Did you see the way me and my Vice Prez, John Madwards teamed up and attacked Sen. Clintoris the other night?  Bam! We knocked that status quo Ho right out of the race.  Shucks, John's campaign even announced her time of death as 9:44 PM right after the debate.  What a fine moment for Obedwards 08!  You know John beat old Hillary by a landslide in Iowa, .4 percent, he surely got some bragging rights out of that and he does so love to brag.  We have so much in common!

    Anyway, The media loves me and I'll just keep riding this wave right on to the White House.  I know I haven't won a debate and John couldn't beat Dick Cheney in 04, but hopefully the Republican nominees will realize that "I am the one" and won't be too hard on us.  I'll get Oprah Winfat to sit on them if they get too cocky.  Besides, if my popularity slips, she'll give everyone who'll vote for me a new car.

    When we get to Washington, we are gonna have change!  John will be busy attacking corporations and special interests (taking time out for his $400 haircuts of course), and I'll throw my stinky feet up on my desk and attack the status quo (that's right, Hillary will be just a plain old Senator again and I won't need John to help me attack her).  Oh, and I won't forget to bomb Pakistan once our excellent intelligence agencies (who have never been wrong) know that Bin Laden is there.  The Muslims will love me for advancing our current foreign policy of attacking their nations without provacation.  I'm so special.

    ..........

    Well, it's been a long campaign and Nov 3 is finally here, wait, what's that?  John McCain is beating me because all the Democrats that did'nt have an Obama epiphany voted for him?  How could that be?  Darn, I should have fixed that light.   Oprah, helllllp me, I'm melting!!!!!  

  •  A Huge Lead in the Last Overnight Polling (0+ / 0-)
    Remember, Rasmussen uses a four-day floating average, so a jump nationally this big in one day is amazing. Obama had been averaging 25 the previous four days, so a jump to 29 means that the 1/6 polling (which reflected the debate performance and reporting on it) must have had Obama at around 41%. Clinton dropped by three points, which means the 1/6 polling had her probably around 26%. Edwards was pretty steady at 20%, I'd guess. Of course, one-day polling is a small number, which is why they only report four-day averages. But if this national polling continues even close to this, the election is over.
  •  It's a stupid process. (0+ / 0-)

    The first primary state in the nation should be whichever state had the closest percentage in the last presidential election, on out.

    That still would have made Iowa first, but not every time.

    And chances are Obama would still have won.  But a bad process getting the same results once as a good process doesn't make it right.  Just think about 2004.

    If Obama can prove he can deal with the GOP smack, then I'm behind him 100% (same for any of 'em, hell) but I don't think our interests are served if he runs the table with no real challenge.

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