So I got lucky as hell with my Iowa predictions, but can I successfully pull out numbers from you-know-where two elections in a row? I would certainly bet against it. The big challenge here is trying to figure out where the independent vote will go. If they decide to cast a Democratic ballot, Obama wins huge. If they decide to cast a Republican one, Obama wins less big.
I'm conflicted about whether to attempt a prediction for the Republican side. Fact is, I just don't get their psychology, and had I attempted a prediction for the GOP results in Iowa, I would've been wildly off the mark. But what the hell, how can people trash me if I don't make an ass out of myself with hilariously wrong predictions? So here goes:
I'm going to buck CW since I've predicted above that independents will turn out for Obama, and those numbers would come out of McCain's potential voter pool. The more likely scenario is for McCain to win by 4-6 points, but I'll go out on that limb. No guts, no glory, right? Or just wishful thinking -- A solid McCain victory, followed by a solid Huckabee victory in South Carolina, makes this a two-man race. If Romney can pull NH off narrowly, then we have a three person clusterfuck, with plenty of opportunities for Giuliani to weasel his way back in the race in a fragmented field.
I am so rooting for "clusterfuck", even dreaming of a brokered GOP convention where Huckabee has a plurality of delegates, but still shy of the needed total, and is brushed aside (along with his theocon army) as Newt Gingrich sweeps in to save the day. Ahhh ... happy thoughts....