I had intended to start a series of diaries on more than the topic of politics. one of these days. one of these days. well, it would be on politics, yes. but also on law. on economics. on the media. but then this morning there was our favorite forged-in-the-fires-of-60's uc santa cruz-liberalism movement conservative: John Doolittle. The Sacramento Bee (which has a particularly frustrutrating website that forces you to subscribe and make a series of drop-down selections (I am an "aeronautical engineer" living in alaska)) has the story
here.
And in the interest of full disclosure, before the jump, please note that I was a paid professional on the Charlie Brown for Congress campaign in '06. I am not working on the race in any way this cycle. I strongly support Charlie, have contributed and will continue to do so. This is my first diary. Now on with it....
The Sac Bee's David Whitney
writes:
Rep. John Doolittle announced this morning that he will not run for a tenth term in Congress....
Doolittle quoted from the second letter of Paul to Timothy, in which he writes "The time for my depature has come. I have fought the good fight. I have finished the race."
There is no shortage of Republicans ready to take up Doolittle's mantle. The Bee explains here:
Former state Sen. Rico Oller has said he would seek the seat should Doolittle not. So he's likely in.
Then there's Assemblyman Ted Gaines, a freshman Republican from Roseville who has planted himself rather firmly on the fence about whether to stay in the Assembly (with little chance of losing his seat) or jump into the congressional campaign.
"The first big decision is for Ted Gaines," Flint said. "Does he want to give up a safe Assembly seat and pretty safe path toward the Senate ... for the risk of (a seat in) Congress?"
Already declared is Eric Egland, an Iraq veteran who was featured prominently in Doolittle's television advertising campaign in 2006. Mike Holmes, the former mayor of Auburn and a 2006 primary challenger to Doolittle, is also in the race.
Lastly there's Doug Ose, a former member of Congress, with a more moderate political history, who Flint said posed an "interesting" candidacy, particularly "if Rico and Ted fought over the conservative vote."
And Republicans are quick to celebrate the safe return of CA-4 to its "rightful" republican hands with this instant analysis:
First of all, thanks to John Doolittle for doing the right thing.
It is most interesting to me that this has completely changed the way everyone looks at this race. Gone almost instantly is the discussion of whether Republicans can hold what should be a safe GOP seat. And that alone validates those of us who have called on Doolittle not to run again.
The big loser today is Charlie Brown. It is too easy to not go there - the football was just pulled away as he tried to kick it, and he is flat on his back.
I disagree entirely. And I'll make one and only one argument here, and it has nothing to do with Doolittle, or Charlie (who I think is an honorable person and appealing candidate), or any messaging at all. It's that the demographics of CA-4 - which includes the Sacramento suburbs of Roseville, Rocklin, Lincoln, and accross to the North and South shore of Lake Tahoe, and up to the Oregon border - are changing. The days of the conservative bedroom suburban communities is coming to an end. Pombo was thought to be unbeatable just a few years ago in his neighboring district in the east east bay. The same is happening in CA-4. It's the Trader Joe's effect. The gradual movement towards a more socially conscious demographic that spends a little extra on their Tom's of Maine toothpaste.
Of course, demographics won't win a race alone. And so i'm committed to keeping this seat in play. Because if it is, if we just keep this case on the front burner, if Charlie has a fighting chance - then we can win this one. And we will have flipped one more district right here at home in California.
too naive?