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I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC, NE and CA; today, AR where the deadline is 3/10, OR where it is 3/11, IA where it is 3/14, ME where it is 3/15, and UT

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.

AR has 4 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
OR has 5 districts, 4 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
IA has 5 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans
ME has 2 districts, both held by Democrats
UT has 3 districts, 1 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are

                                          Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating
AR-01    D+1     .60        Berry           No             Safe
AR-02    R+0     .50        Snyder          No             Safe
AR-04    D+0     .54        Ross            No             Safe
IA-01    D+5     .66        Braley          No             Safe
IA-02    D+7     .67        Loebsack        Yes            Vul
IA-03    D+1     .64        Boswell         No             Somewhat vul
ME-01    D+6     .80        Allen (retiring for senate)    Somewhat vul
ME-02    D+4     .82        Michaud         No             Safe
OR-01    D+6     .49        Wu              No             Safe
OR-03    D+18    .31        Blumenauer      No             Safe
OR-04    D+0     .55        DeFazio         No             Safe
OR-05    D+1     .57        Hooley          No             Slight vul      
UT-02    R+17    .55        Matheson        Probably       Safe

As for those held by Republicans:
AR-03 R+11 .64
AR-03 is the NW corner of AR, bordering OK and MO
Boozman, first elected in 2001, has won easily, even against opponents with competitive funding
He's got a different kind of challenger in 2008, though...David Pritt is on active duty in Iraq.  

IA-04 D+0 .77
IA-04 is the central part of IA
Latham, first elected in 1994, has had a couple close wins: in 2002 he got 55%, in 2006 he got 57% against Selden Spencer, spending $1.1 million to $500,000
In 2008, his opponent is William Meyers

IA-05 R+5  .44
IA-05 is the Western part of IA, bordering NE, SD, and MN.
King, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against opponents with modest funding. It's not clear if he's running again.  He might run for Senate against Harkin.
Rob Hubler is the only announced candidate; he's also got a blog

OR-02 R+11 .60
OR-02 is the eastern 2/3 of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA.
Walden, first elected in 1998, has not been seriously challenged. There is a rumor he may retire now to run full time for Governor in 2010.
There are no confirmed challengers

UT-01 R+22 .54
UT-01 is the NW part of UT, including the Great Salt Lake
Bishop, first elected in 2002, has won easily without spending much, against underfunded opponents.
There is no confirmed challenger

UT-03 R+26 .53
UT-03 is more or less the middle of the state.
Cannon, first elected in 1996, has won easily
There is no confirmed Democratic challenger

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:55 AM PST.

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