(Cross-posted at The Field.)
Folks are arguing about whether Mitt Romney's strategy to win Michigan - promising the impossible resurrection of the economic might of a state that has seen its auto industry drop from 25 percent of its economy to only 7 percent - was demagogic or not, but the fact remains: It worked.
What if Romney becomes the GOP nominee, and Michiganders continue to believe him?
That would throw the traditional Democratic Electoral College strategy of the last two presidential elections into a tailspin.
More at the jump...
Some supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination argue that the senator is best positioned to win a "50-percent plus one" strategy - all the Kerry states, plus Ohio or Florida - to generate an Electoral College victory in November.
Supporters of Edwards and Obama argue more fervently for DNC Chairman Howard Dean's "50 state strategy" of running a truly national campaign and reshaping the electoral map.
But if the November contest is between Clinton and Romney, and the Clinton campaign reverts back to the Gore and Kerry strategy of focusing resources and time into mainly those states that are close in the polls, and Romney were to win Michigan, that would send the "50 percent plus one" strategy into likely defeat.
Here's the math.
2004 Electoral College Results
Republican 286
Democrat 252
If the Democrat had won Ohio’s 20 electoral votes:
Republican 266
Democrat 272
BUT, even if the Democrat won Ohio, but lost Michigan:
Republican 283
Democrat 255
The same would happen with Florida:
If the Democrat had won Florida, the vote would be:
Republican 259
Democrat 279
But if the Democrat won Florida, but lost Michigan, the Republican wins:
Republican 276
Democrat 262
And if the Democrat won Florida (27), and Iowa (7), or a different small state, if Romney wins Michigan, the Electoral College would be tied,
Republican 269
Democrat 269
Many people know that a tie would be broken by the House of Representatives, but don't know that it would not be by a majority up or down vote of the members of the the lower House, but rather - same as the Electoral College - state by state, and the winner of 25-plus states would be president. Democrats reassured by this idea because Democrats are a majority in Congress need a reality check:
Congressional delegations by state:
Democrats 26
Republicans 22
Tied 3
"Democratic" delegations where Republicans make up at least 40 percent of the state's congressional vote include Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. If after a polarized Democratic nomination battle - particularly if the racial politics explode anew - that could also lead to some very surprising party-switching in an Electoral College tie-breaker vote by the US House. Just sayin'.