I've got no crystal ball, but the Republican's strategy is pretty easy to see. They've been telegraphing their punches for a long time on the National Association of Manufacturing, Chamber of Commerce, and other big supporters of the Republicans. And the Democratic Candidates aren't seeing the punch coming, aren't preparing to defend themselves, so they could be KO'd by the GOP's right hook.
I'm talking of course about playing the Democracy card.
The Republicans and their corporate cronies have been claiming the Democrats support an "undemocratic" and "Orwellian-named" bill in almost daily blogs, press releases, and news articles. This is great rhetoric, and most Americans won't need to hear anymore than that to vote for a Republican President who will stand up for Democracy.
The bill in question is the Employee Free Choice Act, which passed the House, but is blocked in the Senate by a threatened filibuster. For any action this year, Democrats would have to compromise on the EFCA in the Senate, something that Republicans feared, saying Democrats may re-insert card-check during the House-Senate Conference.
The more informed voters, who probably aren't undecided on which party they support, will see the lie for what it is: A gross mischaracterization and GOP hypocrisy. But a good lie spread effectively will put the GOP in power once again. If you don't believe me, just ask the 30% of Americans that still believe Saddam had WMD's.
What is the lie? Let's check the wires to see the press:
Employee Free Choice Act Would Disenfranchise 105 Million Workers
by James Sherk
The Heritage Foundation
In the presidential primaries, Americans vote in secret ballot elections for who they want to be the Democratic and Republican nominees. Voters can publicly urge their friends, neighbors, and co-workers to support their favored candidate; but on Election Day, they cast votes in private. American workers decide whether to join a union by the same method. However, Congress is now considering a little-known bill that would strip millions of workers of this fundamental right.
Surprisingly the EFCA does the exact opposite of what the Heritage Foundation claims, but you would really have to be well educated in the intricacies of labor law to understand that. And this is where the Democratic candidate will get slammed by the Republican when he gives a sound bite, saying that he favors "secret ballot elections" and opposes the "undemocratic" and "Orwellian-named" Employee Free Choice Act which eliminates employees right to a secret election (which is false, but he'll state it this way).
Now after 15 seconds of Hillary, Barrack, or John explaining the details of labor law and the history of the labor movement, half of America is gone. There just isn't time to explain the details in October. The Republican message is clear, the details are confusing and boring, and America will narrowly elect a Republican President.
The unions and the candidates could talk about this now to start to educate the public, but they don't. From the Kossack pro-union community, they would prefer to wait until 2009 to pass the law with a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress.
Guess how the Republicans will spin that strategy. You got it. If you vote for a Democrat the Unions win and our rights to a free and secret vote at work will vanish. Of course the Employee Free Choice Act is for those who aren't in a union, but deserve the same rights as previous generations to have a viable option to join a union.
But America will not listen to that in October. They'll hear the sound-bite and make up their mind to vote Republican to protect Democracy.
Unless the unions and the Democrats start stumping for passage of the Employee Free Choice Act in 2008 to educate the public on what it really means they will lose the election.
My group, http://www.agilepeople.org, which is not affiliated with any union but generally supports labor rights, advocates for the Senate Democrats to compromise and only pass increased penalities for violations of existing labor law. This would almost certainly be veto'd in 2008, but would eliminate the Republican's October surprise and also educate the public on the need for Labor Law reform. It would also free any of our Democratic Senators running for President from the GOP claim that they support the "undemocratic" EFCA.