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I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in late March

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.

ID has 2 congressional districts, both held by Republicans
MO has 9 districts, 5 Republican and 4 Democratic
MT has 1 district, with a Republican
SC has 6 districts, 4 Republican and 2 Democratic
SD has 1 district,, with a Democrat

The districts held by Democrats are

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating
MO-01     D+26   .11       Clay             No             Safe
MO-03     D+8    .47       Carnahan         Yes            Mostly safe
MO-04     R+11   .77       Skelton          No             Safe
MO-05     D+12   .25       Cleaver          Yes            Safe
SC-05     R+6    .52       Spratt           No             Safe
SC-06     D+11   .26       Clyburn          No             Safe
SD-AL     ???    .56       Herseth Sandlin  No             Safe

Seats held by Republicans

MO-02 R+9  .73
MO-02 is an odd shaped district in northeastern MO, bordering IL.  It completely surrounds MO-01, which is St. Louis
Akin, first elected in 2000, has won easily, but his opponent the last two times (George Weber) managed to get almost 40% in 2006, with almost no money
Weber is running again.
Also running is Mike Garman, who seems to be a health care specialist.

MO-06 R+5  .69
MO-06 is the northwestern part of MO, bordering NB, KS, and IA.
Graves, first elected in 2000, has won easily. In 2004, he did substantially better than Bush, even though his opponent raised almost $1 million.
This year, his opponent is former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes who has been running since May, 2007, and has the backing of the DCCC.  This could be interesting.

MO-07 R+14 .64
MO-07 is the southwest corner of MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR
Blunt, first elected in 1996, has won easily, raising huge amounts of money (over $3 million in 2004 and 2006).
Mark Logsdon is running (no web site as yet)

MO-08 R+11 .71
MO-08 is the southeastern quarter of MO, bordering IL, KY, TN, and AR
Emerson, first elected in 1996, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
There is no confirmed challenger

MO-09 R+7 .76
MO-09 is the northeast portion of MO, excluding St. Louis and its suburbs and exurbs.
Hulshof, first elected in 1996, won very narrowly then (getting less than 50%) but much more easily since. In 2006, he beat Duane Burghard 61-36, outraising him by 5-1.
Burghard is running again, as is Judy Baker.

MT-AL R+?? .56
MT has only one CD.  Although it went strongly for Bush, it also has 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor
Rehberg, first elected in 2000, may retire to run for Senate against Baucus (he tried in 1996, and lost, 50-45). He has won re-election easily
There is no confirmed challenger (but if Rehberg does go for the Senate run, that should change)

SC-01 R+10  .43
SC-01 is a long thin strip of coastline, that also touches NC
Brown, first elected in 2000, has won easily, sometimes unopposed by a Democrat.  He may retire.
Linda Ketner is thinking about running for this seat.  Go for it, Linda!

SC-02 R+9 .53
SC-02 is an I shaped district, running south from Columbia to the Atlantic, and bordering GA.
Wilson, first elected in 2001, has won easily against underfunded opponents.  In 2006, Michael Ellison got 37% of the vote with almost no money
There is no confirmed challenger

SC-03 R+14  .61
SC-03 is the northwest portion of SC, mostly bordering GA.
Barrett, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents (when he had one)
There are no confirmed challengers

SC-04 R+15 .47
SC-04 is the central part of northern SC including Spartanburg, and borders NC
Inglis, first elected in 2004 (but also in congress from 1992-1997) has won easily against underfunded opponents
The 2006 challenger William Griffith may run again.  Go for it!  You gotta love a candidate who has a page on his website called 'nerds'! (although he has not updated his site, so may not be running)

Originally posted to plf515 on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 03:18 AM PST.

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