A new public policy poll shows that Romney has overtaken McCain in Floria.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
The poll gives Romney 28%, McCain 25% and Guiliani and Huckabee bring up the rear with 19% and 15%.
This echoes the movement that several other polls are showing towards Romney. McCain's win in South Carolina is starting to smell like a dead cat bounce. I'm sensing that Republican voters are predicting that the economy will dominate the presidential election this fall and a plurality believe that Romney may best position the party to hold the White House. I also recall that Jeb Bush spoke favorably about Romney so I suspect that Jeb may have provided Romney with e-mail or other mailing lists. This is pure speculation on my part. But Limbaugh has been especially harsh toward McCain and Huckabee so Romney may also be benefitting from those attacks.
A review of the crosstabs also yields alot of interesting results.
The economy is listed as a top concern by 31%, then Iraq(19%) and immigration and family values(15%).
Romney's biggest strength comes from voters who find immigration their biggest concern, grabbing 50% of those voters.
McCain's largest block of voters comes from those concerned about health care at 37%, however only 5% of Florida republican voters give a shit about health care, so it doesn't help him much.
McCain's second largest block of voters comes from those concerned about the war in Iraq however it is a lukewarm 31% compared to Romney's 25% share.
McCain also leads Romney among voters concerned about the economy but again the lead is a very slim 29% to 25%.
The race seems to be very fluid but for the moment, Romney appears to be getting the most momentum.
Huckabee appears weak in all categories except moral and family values where he grabs a commanding 42% of the vote. But again, this compromises only 15% of Florida GOP voters.
I expect Romney to continue to intertwine the state of the economy with illegal immigration. Although the illegal immigration problem seems to be having a limited impact at the moment nationally, I saw it used with lethal effect back in 1994 by Pete Wilson in California.
The polls sample was 807 likely GOP voters, with an error of +/- 3.5%