(cross posted at E Pluribus Unum)
If Obama loses the nomination, here's the headline that foreshadowed his loss (paraphrasing NPR):
Bill Clinton chases voters throughout South Carolina; Obama sends Truth Squad after him.
In basketball this is called the pick and roll.
[BTW, if you're not a sports fan, skip this next part -- I'll summarize it in simpler terms below.]
In the following example, Obama is the defender and Hillary is the ball-handler. Bill is the intruding teammate:
The play begins with a defender guarding a ballhandler. The ballhandler moves toward a teammate, who sets a "screen" (or "pick") by standing in the way of the defender, who is separated from the still-moving ballhandler. The defender is forced to choose between guarding the ballhandler or the intruding teammate. If the defender tries to guard the ballhandler, then the teammate can move toward the basket, sometimes by a foot pivot ("roll"), and is now open for a pass. If the defender chooses instead to guard the screening teammate, then the ballhandler has an open shot.
Clearly, this play only works if you have a first-string player, e.g., Bill Clinton, to send out on the floor. In other words, Oprah ain't gonna do it for you.
If this sports analogy leaves you cold, never mind: it's a simple case of two-against-one. Obama's on his own. And what he said at the debate in SC may end up being the defining statement of his campaign: "I feel like I'm running against both Clintons."
No sh#t, Sherlock. And I say that as someone who has an Obama bumper sticker on my car.
[BTW, are you as surprised as I was that the Clintons have, in fact, NOT given up in SC? Apparently Obama was caught off-balance as well.]
At this point I would be shocked (but not surprised) if Hillary wins, the SC primary on Saturday. No matter. After that comes Florida and after that is Super Tuesday. Even if Obama wins in SC, he will probably not have the momentum he needs to run the table on Super Tuesday. He's leading in only a handful of states -- like Alabama and Georgia. Had he won Nevada, maybe. Had he won NH, more likely. But now? Not so much.
[Note: Obama's leads in Georgia and Alabama are another indicator that the Clinton's strategy worked: Obama is now the "black candidate," which is most definitely NOT what he set out to be.]
So my son (who's supporting Hillary) askes me: "At this point, what can Obama do to win this?"
I said, "Get Bill to campaign for him."
Now that's a flip answer, I realize. But barring any unforeseen catastrophes -- war, depression, a plane crash, dead prostitutes/live boys -- Obama has a pretty steep hill to climb, no pun intended.
P.S. I pity McCain or Romney or whoever is unlucky enough to get the Republican nomination.