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By my count, roughly 100K more people turned out to vote in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary in South freaking Carolina.  That's huge.  This is a state that has been reliably Republican since the very beginnings of the Southern realignment in the 60's.  What are people's takes on this?

I for one just hope that we Dems don't screw this up.  I think the fight between Hillary and Obama will, in the end, be good for the party as both candidates will be more ready for the Rethugs, who are going to pull out all the knives once we get our nominee.  However, I just hope it doesn't go overboard and that we unite around our nominee once we have one and put our differences aside.  I am a big Obama supporter and have been doing some work for the campaign.  I am hearing from a few Obama supporters that they won't vote for Hillary if she wins -- I take this as BS and that these people will heal in 9 months or so and vote for HIllary if she gets the nomination, but still, let's keep this DemMementum with us.  This is huge.

What do people think?

Originally posted to NewDem on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:46 PM PST.


Is the huge turnout in South Carolina indicative of a Dem landslide in November?

45%94 votes
12%25 votes
42%87 votes

| 206 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I can say this about these primaries (8+ / 0-)

    It is inspiring more and more people to get involved in the political process.

    "Believe in yourself" - Barack Obama

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:46:54 PM PST

  •  A huge number of people are turning out in hopes (7+ / 0-)

    of a change to the status quo. Whether they turn out in November will depend on how much of a difference they still see between the people they voted for...and the status quo.

    Regardless, tonight is a good night for people looking for change.

    One conversation in the real world beats one thousand diaries on the rec list.

    by haruki on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:48:11 PM PST

    •  It's a long campaign (0+ / 0-)

      Dems have to be careful not to destroy the momentum with a bad campaign or turning the voters off. It's a long campaign and "things" happen.  The General Election is nine months away. An awful lot can happen.  Primary season continues for months more with no clear end date.  

      With all the euphoria tonight a more sober view of primary season will pay off better over the long haul.  Now for the Florida Beauty Parade to complete the early round, and then on to big Super Tuesday.

  •  "I want to thank the band" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera, Dallasdoc, ZappoDave

    is a great issue for her to focus on...

    Time to clean up DeLay's petri dish! Help CNMI guest workers find justice! Learn more at Unheard No More.

    by dengre on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:48:20 PM PST

  •  The only state... (0+ / 0-)

    ...that really matters is Ohio.  The map is pretty well locked.  If the Dem candidate wins everything Gore and Kerry won, the toss up is Ohio.  Florida is lost because we dissed their primary, driving lame fence sitters toward McCain.  Guess what?  I'm not sure we can win Ohio.  It'll be a hard slog.  

    My fear is a huge popular landslide that ends in electoral defeat.  By by democracy.  

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:48:20 PM PST

    •  oh please (13+ / 0-)

      You can't win a huge popular landslide and lose the electoral college. That's never happened. A huge popular landslide will bring with it states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas...

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:49:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  YYAAAAARRRGGGHHHHH!!!! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ORDem, Steve Singiser

        Thanks for the Dean-like listing of states.

        Also, you are exactly correct.

      •  Wow... (0+ / 0-)

        ...tell that to President Samuel Tilden.  The best part about saying that something has never happened means that you better verify the truth of the statement.

        I also find it ironic that you site Arizona as a potential Democratic win.  I find the likely hood of any of these state coming into the Dem column if McCain in the nominee.  Least of all his home state and its two neighbors.  

        No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

        by CrazyHorse on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:58:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tilden didn't win a popular landslide (0+ / 0-)

          He won by 3 points in the popular vote. No, no one has ever won a "popular vote landslide" and lost the electoral college. It's almost mathematically impossible.

          The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

          by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:01:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Clem Yeobright

            except Andrew Jackson.  But we can forget about that too.  Nothing in politics is mathematically impossible.  Big wins in several states can easily be offset by a small loss in one key state.    

            No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

            by CrazyHorse on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:07:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Andrew Jackson? Come on! When Andrew (0+ / 0-)

              Jackson was elected, there weren't even enough states to have a landslide victory. People just had a slide victory. Most of the land didn't come til later. In fact, it wasn't even much of a slide. It was more like a teeter-totter. And there wasn't even much land. It was mostly sea. So people used to win seasy-teeter-totter victories. It wasn't quite as definitive then as now.

    •  How so? (5+ / 0-)

      IA, MO, AZ, NM, CO, NV -- just to name the most obvious -- are all trending blue and are well within reach in a popular-landslide year (if that holds up).

      Are you thinking of changing your vote choice to spite a candidate's kossack supporters? Then you need to close the browser window and get some fresh air.

      by cardinal on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:50:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  technically, you're a little off (0+ / 0-)

      I mean if Gore had one his home state of TN, he would have won the nomination regardless of the FL shenanigans...Ohio is pretty key, though, so it's a somewhat valid subject

      •  True. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Clem Yeobright

        But do you see Clinton or Obama (or any Dem) putting Tennessee into play?  I keep running the numbers and I don't sense a massive trend in red to blue or purple to shift - if McCain wins it.  And I think that's what we're looking at.

        I'm really tired of taking the optimist approach.  Everyone keeps seeing this big Dem trend - and that might be true nationally.  But we don't have a national election, we have 50 state elections.  And there is one major player - Ohio - that I don't think is going to cooperate with the plan.

        No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

        by CrazyHorse on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:03:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  take it from a floridian (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      YOU ARE WRONG; florida is a 50/50 state and we can win here in november

  •  I don't know if this means we can take parts of (4+ / 0-)

    the south, but it looks like we can at least compete, which hasn't happenned in SC in a very long time...Like what Barack said about Reagan or not, one thing Regan did best was pulling blue states to him, if we can get our nominee to do that, it'll be huge

  •  Howard Fineman had an interesting stat (5+ / 0-)

    He said that Barack Obama got more votes than were cast in the entire SC Democratic primary in 2004.  That's not just an increase, it's a qualitative change.  

    Just four months ago Hillary was 25% ahead in the national polls.  I don't believe that those voters would be scoring record numbers now.  Obama's rise may not have been due to his taking supporters away from other candidates, but in bringing in new ones.  That's the one thing I can see creating such a vast change in Democratic voting numbers.  That, of course, and the bitter exhaustion and hatred for George Bush's presidency.

    •  No Offense, But I Think It Is Owed Much More... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Boorad, steve davis

      To the latter than the former.

      I think all three candidates are bringing committed and energized voters to the polls.

      The record turnouts have not been limited simply to the places where Obama does well. It was also seen in Nevada and New Hampshire, and if early voting and absentees are prologue, the same will occur in Florida, despite no delegates being at stake.

      I think American Democrats, and a large number of independents, have become energized by absolute disdain for the most bungled presidency in generations (if not ever).

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:03:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  If is is McCain/HRC in the general my money (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, stevedubya

    would be on McCain.

    One of many reasons to support Obama.

    "We will now proceed to construct the socialist order."

    by 7November on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:53:16 PM PST

    •  I don't agree (0+ / 0-)

      I think HIllary would crush McCain.  The Republican base would not be as active as it would be with another candidate.  Yes, they hate Hillary (a lot), but they hate McCain a lot too.

      GoreObama/Webb 2008

      by NewDem on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:00:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I Totally Disagree.... (0+ / 0-)
      1. Right now, Obama's numbers vis-a-vis McCain are virtually identical to HRC's. Both of them run just about even in most polls.
      1. McCain is at the zenith of his popularity right now. His fav-unfav according to CNN was 59-28 last week. There is no way he goes through an entire presidential general election with a 2-to-1 fav/unfav ratio. It will simply never happen.
      1. Someone else cited this, but it is true. Movement Republicans LOATHE McCain. You think some of the Obama folk around here sound dejected at the thought of an HRC nomination? Hear a "true conservative" talk about McCain. Hell, one of my good buddies who is on the right complained about fawning coverage of McCain on Fox News, and summed it thusly: "I never thought Fox would fall into this whole left-wing bias crap."

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:06:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCain is gonna start to run into blowback. (0+ / 0-)

        Today during his endorsement speech after Cristie endorsed him, he joked about microphone quality by saying "This sound system was provided by the Democrat National Committee." That sort of thing plays to the base, but frankly, Democrats damned well aren't going to cross over to vote for a man who clearly holds the opposition in contempt.

  •  and we had only 3 candidates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    They had 5 or 6, depending how you count

  •  If a lot of it is anti-hillary voters (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    it could be indicative of bad things come Nov.

    •  I tend to think it's more pro Obama tonight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      steve davis, stevedubya

      and in Iowa too. In NH and NV it was more pro-Clinton.  Both candidates have shown a more positive message than their republican opposition.  People don't turn out to vote against things.  They turn out to vote FOR things.

      A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

      by dougymi on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:17:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Complacency is a killer (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ORDem, John DE

    Don't assume anything. Republicans know how to close general elections. Obama or Clinton will need 100 percent of this massive turnout, either one of them. It's foolish to assume otherwise.

  •  Just heard on CNN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevedubya, myrealname

    Obama got more votes than McCain and Romney combined.

  •  Only if Obama wins nom (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Norm in Chicago

    He's the ONE and the time is NOW! - OBAMA '08

    by Todd Smyth on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:00:19 PM PST

  •  this is why i hope for a long, grueling race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that forces the candidates to campaign in every single state as if it mattered. because the residual effect of having these campaigns come to town could well set in motion long term ripples that change the electoral map in years to come.

    in particular, getting young and nonwhite voters fired up and turning out in '08 could well help us rewrite the map in the 2010 redistricting.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:00:58 PM PST

  •  Obama got more votes than McCain and Huckabee (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevedubya, Norm in Chicago

    combined in SC.

    That's awesome.

    "There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible. But in the end they always fall. Think of it. Always." -- Mahatma Gandhi

    by duha on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:01:22 PM PST

  •  Regarding the poll... (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know if it's indicative, but it certainly is a good sign.

  •  530,000 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevedubya, dougymi

    According to MSNBC.

  •  re: poll (0+ / 0-)

    my choice -- "too early to tell"

    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

    by a gilas girl on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:08:50 PM PST

  •  To me it's been the biggest story (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    of every primary or caucus save MI. The tradmedia agrees for the most part, since they rarely talk about it.

    A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

    by dougymi on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:14:33 PM PST

  •  I no longer have any doubt (3+ / 0-)

    If we nominate Obama, the deep south is competitive.

  •  Look at the raw numbers from SC...last week's... (0+ / 0-)

    ...GOP primary vs today's Democratic primary.

    Obama himself beat the top two GOP finishers (McCain and Huckabee) combined!

  •  As a South Carolinian (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annalivia, sidinny, JackDawkins

    (living in Georgia)

    I've endured three decades of a hunched-over state Democratic Party that has always seemed to just phone it in.  No offense to the many committed folks at the county and state levels, but they just never seemed to put together a mission.

    Seeing the SC Dem primary dwarf the Republican primary and nearly double the primary vote from 4 years ago... I'm just sitting here stunned, overjoyed.

    There's that moment at the end of "The Pursuit of Happyness" where Will Smith's character shows us that moment when happiness hits.  My happiness at this turnout result can't compare to what that character went through, but, holy moses, I'm ... I'm just overwhelmed with what the campaigns and all of their supporters did in my home state.  

    Less than a year...

    by socratic on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:29:58 PM PST

  •  About the turnout (0+ / 0-)

    First of all, the numbers don't lie.  More Dems voted this weekend than Repubs last weekend.

    However - keep in mind that last weekend - especially in the very very red Upstate, the weather was icy.  And in the rest of the state, it was pretty rainy.  That definitely played a key role in depressing Republican turnout a bit.

    Regardless, the Dems should be very proud of their turnout today.  It's nice to see a party that holds maybe one statewide office (Superintendent of Education) actually feel energized for once.

  •  Plainly (0+ / 0-)

    Obama can turn out voters that Hillary cannot.

    We've also learned this week that he doesn't have a glass jaw. He doesn't wilt when mud is thrown at him.

    He will make a great nominee.

  •  You have ripped of previous posts (0+ / 0-)

    Nice going. And you even present less information or insight.

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