Unlike Rasmussen and SUSA, which show a 12 point margin, this poll conducted by by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on January 30-31 shows a closer contest:
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama in New Jersey has narrowed to 44%-38%, according to a private poll commissioned by one of the state’s most powerful Democratic leaders, George Norcross. The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on January 30-31, was distributed to some Norcross allies earlier this morning and obtained by PolitickerNJ.com.
The key for the closing may be Edwards supporters:
"Edwards supporters are more open to Obama than Clinton in New Jersey. Among voters initially supporting Edwards, 26 percent shift their support to Obama, while only 12 percent shift to Clinton (34 percent of Edwards’ supporters say they will continue to support Edwards although he is no longer in the race and 28 percent remain undecided)," the poll memo said. "And among the 25 percent of voters who have no preference or indicate that they would vote for a candidate who is no longer campaigning, just 14 percent say there is "no chance" they would vote for Obama in the primary election. Among this same group, more than one-fifth (21 percent) say that there is 'no chance' they would support Clinton."
Moreover, somewhat surpisingly, Clinton does better in south Jersey than in north Jersey:
In Clinton’s home New York media market, covering about 75 percent of the state, she leads Obama by just 4 points in the allocated vote, 43 – 39 percent, within the margin of error. In the Philadelphia media market, Obama garners 36 percent to Clinton’s 47 percent.
And the breakdowns for race, gender and age:
Obama does well with African Americans, keeps Clinton under 50 percent with whites. Among African American voters, Obama holds a 2-1 lead over Clinton, 61 – 31 percent. This margin mirrors pre-election polling done in South Carolina, where Obama’s share of the African American electorate rose to near 80 percent on Election Day. Among white voters, the race is somewhat closer, with Clinton receiving support from less than half
of white voters with 47 percent of the allocated vote and Obama garnering support from 33 percent of whites.
Obama has closed the gap with a coalition of broad support among men and younger voters. Obama runs even with Clinton among men, with each at 41 percent. The Illinois Senator receives support from more than one-third of white men (35 percent), compared to 42 percent for Clinton. Obama also has strength with younger voters. Among voters under
the age of 30, Obama leads Clinton by 58 – 33 percent in the allocated vote. And while Clinton leads among voters over the age of 64, the two candidates are in a dead heat