much as I hate to say this, and as much as it will pain me personally, John McCain's hand will be on the Bible, and Kossacks and progressives everywhere will be wondering what happened.
It's really quite simple. Despite all the excitement about Obama, despite all the illusion of competitive races, despite the busy back and forth, dynamic polls, the reality is that we do not elect Presidents by popular vote - as we all know, the states elect the President, and most states have a winner take all format. Thus, to win in 2008, the Democrats will need to win a few states they lost in 2000 and 2004.
Looking at the 2000 and 2004 results,one state went from Republican to Deomocratic (New Hamphire, 4 electoral votes ) while 2 states went from Democratic to Republican (New Mexico, 5 Electoral votes, and Iowa, 7 Electoral votes). Net result from 2000 to 2004 was plus 8 for the Republicans.
The other factor is that most blue states (California excepted) lost electoral votes since 2000 (New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), while many Red states gained electoral votes (Texas,Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina).
It's fun to get all excited by Barack, to feel that the primary season is democracy in action. The reality is that the Electoral map, and our anti-democratic Electoral College will disenfranchise millions of voters in states where the their candidate loses. Despite the passion we saw in South Carolina, does anyone really believe that this state will provide a majority for the Democratic candidate? If one more person in that state votes for the Republican candidate, the entire 8 electoral votes will go to the Republican candidate.
IF every single person in our largest state - California - voted for the Democratic candidate it would have the same impact as if the Democratic candidate received just one more vote than the Republican. In other words, all Calfornia voters can do is provide 55 electoral votes to the Democratic candidate - turning out an additional 500,000 young or new voters has absolutely no affect.
Crowds, excitement, passion are all great, but in the end, our system is stacked against participation.
I offer this challenge to those who doubt my prediction about McCain. Take a look at the 2004 electoral college map and let me know which state Clinton or Obama would win that Kerry lost. Ohio?? Florida?? Virginia??
Because Clinton or Obama need to win not just every state Kerry won, but pick up at least one of the states above. Take a look at the map and let me know why John McCain will not be the one sworn in next year.....