http://www.monmouth.edu/...
Since the pro-Obama folks like to highlight polls favorable to their candidate (and it's often hard to find a pro-Hillary poll anywhere on this site) I thought I would take the opportunity, on the heels of the Reuters/Zogby poll showing Hillary with a 1 point lead to highlight this latest poll from the Monmouth University Polling Institute in cooperation with the Gannett News Service.
Hillary leads Obama 50-36 with 14% undecided. The poll was taken from Jan. 30-Feb. 1 and covered 1,273 likely primary voters. The MOE is 2.8%.
Some data from the poll below:
- Hillary leads among both Dems (51-35) and Indies (49-38).
- Hillary leads among men (49-38) and women (52-34).
- Hillary has gained 8 points from the last poll (taken in January) and - Obama has gained 6 points.
The polling over the last few days nationwide suggest the following trends:
- The race is realigning as voters have quickly internalized the fact that this is a two person race and not a three person race. We have to realize that it has not even been one week since Edwards dropped out. Therefore, there will be wide variance in polling and therefore we will see a slew of conflicting polls and may likely have New Hampshire or South Carolina style results where polling does not accurately predict the winner and/or margin of victory.
- National polling is in conflict. Though I am not a fan of national polling as a barometer of how a candidate will do in a particular state, it is worth noting that while Gallup and Rasmussen show an uptick for Clinton, ABC/WAPO show the race even.
- State polling is in conflict in MO, NJ, CT, AL, and most of all in CA.
- There has been a tightening of the margin between Clinton and Obama as this race is quickly processed as a two person race. Obama is drawing large crowds, increased interest and is showing real intensity on the campaign trail.
- Hillary Clinton is no less active. She went a long way to mollifying her critics with a fine debate performance, and is quite likely to make gains among Edwards voters earning under 50k and women. However, the sense of urgency is on the side of Obama.
- If there is one issue that could be a momentum shifter, it is the Iraq war. If Obama can continue to hammer the Iraq message home after generally winning that portion of the debate, he could rally voters to his side and affect the result in states like Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and possibly, California.
- Early voting will have to be factored in each of these states to arrive at an accurate result.
- The results of the debate will only begin to be processed starting in polling released that cover Feb 1-Feb 3. The debate marked the official start of the two-person race.
- I'd also look at where the candidates spend the final 72 hours of the campaign as a guide to how each candidate views the race. Hillary spent a lot of time in CA the last few days, but has now traveled to Arizona, New Mexico and is slated to go to Minnesota and Missouri. Obama left CA yesterday morning and went to New Mexico, Idaho, Minnesota and Missouri. If either one returns to CA, then it tells me that the race is very close within the margin of error. If they don't, then I'd conclude that Hillary has a lead outside the margin of error.