We've all seen the polls. Each side of the Clinton/Obama divide can point to a poll that favors her/his candidate. There has been a lot of talk, but after tomorrow we'll have actual results and a clear answer from a good cross-section of the country. North, South, Midwest, West and West Coast are all represented. So let's have a little fun with this in advance of election day.
[As a disclaimer, I support Hillary Clinton and will vote for her today in Los Angeles].
So let's get started from east to west.
Massachusetts: Hillary has led in all but 1 poll. She has several polls showing a double digit margin. She will win this race by double digits:
Clinton 52%, Obama 41%, 7% Other.
[More on the flip]
Connecticut: This is one where both campaigns seem to think will be close. The Survey USA poll today had Obama up +2. ARG had a 13 point lead for Hillary, but as we know that's ARG. Hillary has a lead among white voters and latinos in the SUSA poll. If Obama is able to win the 50-64 demo, then I think he would pull of a dramatic win and make a statement about his ability to win the nomination. Obama is basing his strategy on Ned Lamont's victory in the '06 Senate primary, but Hillary Clinton is not Joe Lieberman. Hillary will win this one.
Clinton 50%, Obama 47%, 3% Other.
New York: We know Hillary is going to win this one. The question is by how much. I'll base it off the Pollster.com average and allocate some undecided:
Clinton 56% , Obama 38%, 6% Other.
New Jersey: Zogby has made this interesting, but again...it's Zogby we're dealing with. Not one poll has Obama in the lead. NJ always has some crazy polling late in the game because New Jerseyans hate all politicians, but they'll vote for the devil they know. Internals also suggest a racial disparity in the voting, which if borne out in other states could mean a very long night for team Obama.
Clinton 52% Obama 44% Other 4%
Delaware: ARG had this one a very narrow 2 point lead for Clinton. Michelle Obama had an outstanding speech here last week and that could make this one very close. This is a pickem' state, but I think Hillary will win this one narrowly. Hillary has a little better name recognition and voters who haven't had big exposure to the campaign have a clearer idea of what she would do as President as compared with Obama.
Clinton 48% Obama 46%, Other 6%
Georgia: All the polls seem to indicate that Obama is going to win this one going away on the strength of the African American vote, where he will get about 80%. His victory here will resemble his win in SC.
Obama 53% Clinton 38% Other 9%
Alabama: This is going to be a tight race, maybe the tightest of the evening. The demographics favor Hillary a little more than GA or SC as African Americans make up 25% of the Dem electorate, and Hillary does have some key endorsements in the African American political establishment. That said, the average of the last 6 polls has Clinton leading 45.3 to 43.6.
Clinton 48%, Obama 46%, Other 2%
Tennessee: This one has been trending strongly for Hillary and appears to be as lopsided as Georgia is for Obama. Demographics and proximity to Arkansas are key factors here. Hillary leads by a whopping 69-22 advantage among white voters according to the PPP poll.
Clinton 54%, Obama 39% Other 7%
Arkansas: This one will be a solid victory for Hillary.
Clinton 53% Obama 38%, Other 9%
Missouri: Zogby has Obama +3. Survey USA has Clinton +11 and Mason-Dixon has Clinton +6. The SUSA internals indicate a massive race gap. Clinton leads among whites by 59-37 and has a dominant 74-26 lead among Latinos. M-D internals indicate that Obama is strong in STL, but that Clinton has a lead in KC and everywhere in between. Sorry Zogby, Clinton is going to win this one.
Clinton 49% Obama 43% Other 8%
Oklahoma: Every poll shows Clinton with a dominant lead. Every poll can't be wrong (unless it's New Hampshire).
Clinton 56% Obama 34% Other 10%
Illinois: Obama will win his home state handily.
Obama 67% Clinton 28% Other 5%
Minnesota: This one is going to be close. However, the last poll taken had Clinton with a 7 point lead (Humphrey Institute) and a significant 12% point lead among white voters. Obama had a huge rally at the Metrodome and Clinton spent Sunday there, so both campaigns think this one is going to be contested. The gender gap is also big. The demographics would tend to favor Clinton, especially if she can hold her own in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
Clinton 49% Obama 45% Other 6%
North Dakota: I really have no idea who is going to win this state. I've seen no info. Both campaigns are running ads there, but Obama has more organization and has the endorsement of two of ND's 3 members of Congress. They're expecting record turnout (a whopping 12,000 voters!).
Obama 52% Clinton 42% Other 6%
Idaho: Obama led here a year ago. His visit to Boise brought out the whole state. I expect him to win.
Obama 54% Clinton 44% Other 2%
Colorado: This is a caucus. The last poll had Obama 34% Clinton 32% and Edwards 17%, with 14% undecided. It's very difficult to poll caucuses and this is about the turnout operation. I have no idea who will win this state, but both campaigns have invested money here. I believe this format will favor Obama slightly.
Obama 53% Clinton 47%
Kansas: Not much polling here, but my guess is that Obama will win the state with the support of Sebelius.
Obama 53% Clinton 44% Other 3%
New Mexico: A recent poll shows Obama with a 6 point lead, 48-42. Hillary has a slight lead among Latinos and Obama leads among whites by an 11 point margin. The west is clearly more Obama friendly than the South.
Obama 49% Clinton 45% Other 6%
Utah: A poll released over the weekend has Obama with a large 53-29 lead. Utahans still haven't forgiven Clinton for declaring a huge chunk of the state as a national monument in 1996 as a big 'fuck you' to Orrin Hatch and as a play for Arizona, which he won. I love Bill's cajones.
Obama 56% Clinton 38% Other 6%
Arizona: This race will also be close, but Hillary has led in every single poll, though many have been within the margin of error. In the last Mason-Dixon poll, Hillary led among whites by 6 points and trailed Obama among Latinos by 16 points. The Napolitano endorsement could have had an impact here, but that large of a disparity as compared with the national trend? I know AZ's Latino population is somewhat different, but this state voted for Bill in 1996 and Hillary was an important factor in getting the support of key demographic groups. Rasmussen had Clinton up +6.
Clinton 49%, Obama 46% Other 5%.
California: This is the state that will decide the real 'winner' of the Feb. 5 primaries. The winner of CA will win the nomination in my view. Zogby has a booming trend line for Obama, and has him up +11. The Suffolk poll has Obama +1 and Rasmussen has Obama +1. The Field Poll has Clinton +2 with a staggeringly high number of undecideds and has basically pushed on the race, Mason-Dixon has Clinton +9, ARG has Clinton +9 and SUSA has Clinton +11. Reading the internals, it seems clear that Obama has a lead in the SF Bay Area but nowhere else in the state. Clinton retains advantages in key demographic groups and has put more work into covering the state from end to end. Bascially, I think Zogby is crap and I don't think it will be that close in CA. The movement that has been occurring in CA is a normal realignment to a two person race and the demographic trends in CA have moved to match those nationwide.
Clinton 52% Obama 43% Other 5%
....and then there was Alaska: Obama 49%, Clinton 43%, Gravel 8%
Summary of Predictions:
Clinton wins the following states: (13)
Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Arizona, California
Obama wins the following states: (10)
Illinois, Georgia, North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Kansas, Alaska.
As for delegate projections, I don't have a detailed breakdown, but I believe Hillary will end up with a delegate lead of about +60 to +100 after these primaries, and a total delegate lead of +150 to +200.