(Cross-posted at The Field.)
A total of 322 pledged delegates are available in today's Democratic primary in California: 241 from Congressional districts, and 81 at-large pledged delegates that will reflect the total statewide vote percentages.
But 32 of California's 53 districts have an even number of delegates, which means that a candidate has to get over 62.5 percent of the vote in those that have four delegates at stake, or 58.25 percent of the vote in those that have six delegates at stake, in order to break a tie and pick up extra delegates. In almost all of them - save a few I'll mention below as wild cards - those districts will break exactly even in terms of delegate count between Clinton and Obama.
The Field estimates that of the 241 Congressional District delegates available, Clinton will win 122 and Obama will win 119: A net gain of +3 Clinton.
Statewide and district-by-district estimates at the jump...
For the 81 at-large pledged delegates, if Clinton were to beat Obama by a factor of ten percentage points (yes, I recognize that is higher than likely and the result could very well be the reverse of that, too, but I don't see either candidate winning California by more than 10 points), She would get 45 delegates to 36 for Obama.
Best case scenario for Clinton: 177 delegates to 155 (+22 Clinton).
Best case scenario for Obama: 164 delegates to 158 (+6 Obama).
Here's a further explanation of why only 21 Congressional districts - the ones with an odd number (3 or 5) delegates - will net either candidate a net gain beyond a tie.
And here's a list of California's 53 Congressional districts by number, with the name of the Congress member representing each, so you can see if you or yours live in one of them.
Obama will pick up 1 extra delegate in these Northern California districts: Districts 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, and 20.
Clinton will pick up 1 extra delegate in these Southern California districts: Districts 23, 24, 27, 28, 33, 35, 36, 37, 47, 50 and 53.
Yes, it's almost that simple. Obama should win in the Bay Area and the North, while Clinton should the Los Angeles and San Diego areas and the South.
But here are some wild card Congressional districts to watch:
District 9, represented by Democrat Barbara Lee has six delegates at stake, she very actively supports Obama and if he beats the 58.25 percent threshold there he could lead Clinton by 2 delegates. It has a much higher African-American vote than Latino vote and additionally skews activist and anti-war liberal. The MoveOn.org endorsement of Obama, and the general coalescing of that kind of voter around Obama in the past week could well push Obama over the 58.25 percent threshold to pick up two extra delegates there.
District 14, represented by Democrat Anna Eshoo has six delegates at stake, she supports Obama and it's known as the Silicon Valley or "Google district," with a large number of young computer developers, a great demo for Obama. So he has a shot at that same threshold there for a pick up of two extra delegates.
District 29, represented by Democrat Adam Schiff has six delegates, he's been a very active national Obama surrogate from early on. If he's working his district as hard as he's worked nationally, maybe that, too, could be a two delegate pick-up for Obama.
District 31 is represented by Democrat Xavier Becerra and has four delegates, he's another Obama surrogate and the highest ranking Latino in the US House. It's much less likely that this district will turn because 62.5 percent of the vote will be needed to take a four-delegate district, but it's worth watching also as a barometer of whether Clinton's big lead among Latino voters has sagged or not.
Conversely, some of the odd-numbered delegate districts that I've called for Obama have US Representatives that back Clinton. Most of them got on early but have not been very vocal about it of late. I don't think they can stem the Northern California tide for Obama in their districts but I'll list them as ones to watch, too: Mike Thompson of CD 1, Doris Matsui of CD 5, and Ellen Tauscher of CD 10.
Also fun to watch: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 8th Congressional District, which has six delegates and a very high Asian-American population together with very liberal voters. Asian-Americans have been virtually ignored by the press this primary season and could constitute ten percent or more of today's vote. If they break en masse for one candidate or another, that could tip the scales in here and elsewhere, and Pelosi has made no secret of her enthusiasm for Obama.
There are 19 California Congressional Districts represented by Republicans, and some of them skew rural. In bordering rural Northern Nevada counties, we saw Obama clear the 58.25 percent hurdle in various of them, even when this was a three-way race. That's also something to watch tonight (and tomorrow, because the district-by-district count is likely to prolong well into dawn or beyond, paper ballots and all).
Finally, what we will know when polls close at 11 p.m. ET (8 p.m. in California) is the official count on mail-in ballots, which are already being counted by the California Secretary of State's office. That will be a big indicator both of what percentage of the voters chose early, and whether Clinton does enjoy a big lead among them. It will basically tell us if Obama is in shooting distance or not of a surprise California dream.
(For The Field predictions of the states where polls close in the 7 p.m. ET hour, click here.)
(For The Field predictions of the states where polls close in the 8 p.m. ET hour, click here.)
(For The Field predictions of the states where polls close at 9 p.m. ET, click here.)
(For The Field predictions of the states where polls close at 10 p.m. ET, click here.)