Skip to main content

Yesterday I posted a diary in which I predicted that active Mormon voters in California would carry the state for Mitt, he being the "white horse" candidate and all (you'll have to read yesterday's diary to understand the reference).

I was wrong. And as I promised in my "tip jar," I am hereby posting a retraction of my foolish prediction.

I should have paid at least a tiny bit of attention to, oh, say, California demographics overall: yes, there are 750,000 Mormons in California (and let's generously say that half of them are eligible to vote). But there are 15.8 million registered voters in California, 34% of which are registered as Republicans (per Public Policy Institute of Calif., Sept. 2007)... ergo, 5.3 million Republicans.

California Mormons scarcely make a dent in that figure, and for all their organization and energy, sometimes there's just no way to beat the sheer numbers. So it's all moot, moot, moot where Mitt's concerned.

Still, it's kind of sad that Mitt didn't take California, given how he seems more beatable than McCain come November. I am perfectly pleased that he has said that he will continue to fight for the Republican nomination. And I think it is appalling that anti-Mormon bigotry played such a clear role in Huckabee's wins in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia (all Bible-belt states, you will note). On the other hand, there was clear pro-Mormon bigotry evident in Mitt's wins (taking Utah with some 90% of the vote, for example).

As a final note, I remain fascinated by the schism(s) within the Republican camp: for all that he's the clear frontrunner, McCain has a lot of work to do to win over the rightest-wing of his already far-too-right-wing party. The visceral hatred of the Repub wingers toward McCain is no doubt one reason Romney is staying in the race for the moment: he may yet end up as the "compromise candidate" -- though after yesterday's pathetic prognostications, I am certainly not going to lay any odds on that.

Originally posted to mofembot on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:00 AM PST.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  That's okay (7+ / 0-)

    I was totally off on NJ and Cal. Luckily we dodged the bullet on the republican side when Huckabee was given all those McCain votes. That should extend their race a bit further.

    'I don't want any commies in my car. Christians either!' Repo Man

    by Psychotronicman on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:06:25 AM PST

  •  just a tid-bit on WV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Heiuan, Psychotronicman

    not sure how much difference it makes, but a little additional info.  The WV State National Guard is the largest employer in the state.  One of its prize units is 2nd Battalion/19th Special Forces Group (Airborne).  Another battalion and the Group's headquarters is in Utah.

    In the mid-90's the Army SOCOM and Guard Bureau realigned many of the theaters of operation where A-Teams deploy.  Usually, this is based on the Group's language training, but in the Guard it is hard to do because before Blackwater, spec ops people from all the Groups on active duty would get out and join the Guard.

    Now, WV was realigned (from Europe, I believe) to Sub-Saharan Africa while Utah kept South East Asia (trips to Thailand, etc.)  The perception and common wisdom at the time was that Utah was sending their teams to SE Asia and also, illegally, augmenting US Gov missions with their own mission of the LDS.  They were politically powerful enough to keep a "good" area while those in WV felt they got shafted.

    Now, I do not know how this affects things now, nor do I know if that is the actual truth of the matter.  But I do know that often perception is reality and the perception at that time was a bit hostile towards Utah.

    "I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend." - Thomas Jefferson

    by Jeffersonian Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:10:33 AM PST

  •  Mormons have influenced the caucus states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EJP in Maine, Psychotronicman

    for sure. If California had been a Caucus State, I'm sure your predictions would have come true.

    Romney has won most Republican caucus states. The Mormons are an active and motivated voting bloc for the Republicans.

    Iowa:       Huckabee 34%  Romney 25%
    Maine:      Romney 52%    McCain 21%
    Nevada:     Romney 51%    Paul 14%
    Alaska:     Romney 44%    Huckabee 22%
    Colorado:   Romney 60%    McCain 19%
    Montana:    Romney 38%    Paul   25%
    N. Dakota:  Romney 36%    McCain 23%
    Wyoming:    Romney 67%    Thompson 25%
    Minnesota:  Romney 42%    McCain 22%

    Utah        Romney 90%    McCain  5%

    The NeoCOM (Corporate Owned Media) is Neocon.

    by Brahman Colorado on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:26:17 AM PST

  •  I have to agree that my hopes were pinned (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    on Romney for the same reason you stated.

    When the issue of his religion was raised, I was disgusted and angry that the republicans would fear that their values would be compromised if Romney were elected.  But it wasn't just that, it was Romney himself that failed to win.

    The religious fanatics didn't buy the republican party because it was virtuous, they bought it because it was for sale

    by nupstateny on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 04:14:22 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site