Yesterday I posted a diary in which I predicted that active Mormon voters in California would carry the state for Mitt, he being the "white horse" candidate and all (you'll have to read yesterday's diary to understand the reference).
I was wrong. And as I promised in my "tip jar," I am hereby posting a retraction of my foolish prediction.
I should have paid at least a tiny bit of attention to, oh, say, California demographics overall: yes, there are 750,000 Mormons in California (and let's generously say that half of them are eligible to vote). But there are 15.8 million registered voters in California, 34% of which are registered as Republicans (per Public Policy Institute of Calif., Sept. 2007)... ergo, 5.3 million Republicans.
California Mormons scarcely make a dent in that figure, and for all their organization and energy, sometimes there's just no way to beat the sheer numbers. So it's all moot, moot, moot where Mitt's concerned.
Still, it's kind of sad that Mitt didn't take California, given how he seems more beatable than McCain come November. I am perfectly pleased that he has said that he will continue to fight for the Republican nomination. And I think it is appalling that anti-Mormon bigotry played such a clear role in Huckabee's wins in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia (all Bible-belt states, you will note). On the other hand, there was clear pro-Mormon bigotry evident in Mitt's wins (taking Utah with some 90% of the vote, for example).
As a final note, I remain fascinated by the schism(s) within the Republican camp: for all that he's the clear frontrunner, McCain has a lot of work to do to win over the rightest-wing of his already far-too-right-wing party. The visceral hatred of the Repub wingers toward McCain is no doubt one reason Romney is staying in the race for the moment: he may yet end up as the "compromise candidate" -- though after yesterday's pathetic prognostications, I am certainly not going to lay any odds on that.