Although Super Tuesday was expected, with 22 states, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad voting, to decide the Democratic race, it has failed to produce a clear frontrunner. As of this writing, it looks like Obama probably won more delegates, although some agencies like the New York Times are projecting Clinton ahead.
Either way, after the dust has cleared, Obama and Clinton will probably have, give or take, 900 or so pledged delegates. Clinton has about 200 superdelegates to Obama's 100, so that leaves the totals at about 1100 for Clinton and 1000 for Obama. A candidate will require 2,025 of the total 4,049 delegates to win the nomination, so there are two places they will be looking to:
1,485 pledged delegates that will be determined between February 9th and June 7th
411 superdelegates who have not yet decided who to vote for
To win the nomination, Obama would need to secure about 1000 (53%) of these, while Clinton would need to win about 900 (48%). (The totals don't sum to 100% because Edwards has a handful of delegates despite dropping out.)
However, it's not that simple - remember that about 22% of the remaining delegates to be decided are superdelegates and that they can support whoever they want. For either candidate to reach the magic 2,025 number without winning any additional superdelegates, Obama would require about 1000 out of the remaining 1,485 pledged delegates (67%), while Clinton would require about 900 of them (61%). This could happen, but it's unlikely given the Democrats' system of proportionately allocating delegates, instead of winner-takes-all. That means that the superdelegates will probably play a major role come the convention.
If the superdelegates were to continue their 2:1 split in favor of Clinton, it would put her total at about 1375 to Obama's 1176. That would mean that to win the nomination, Clinton would need only 650 of the 1,496 pledged delegates left to be decided (44%) while Obama would need 849 (56%).
Should the remaining superdelegates split evenly, Obama would have about 1200 delegates and Clinton about 1300. Obama would need 825 of the 1,496 remaining delegates (55%) for victory at that point, while Clinton would need 725 (49%).
Should Obama win the remaining superdelegates, of course, he could even out these numbers, but to take a lead, he would need to win about 100 more of the 411 remaining superdelegates than Clinton - about a 250 to 150 victory, almost 2:1 the other way.
How will the superdelegates go? That's anyone's guess, really. Clinton took a huge initial lead (4:1 in October) but it's been dwindling (2:1 now), and while Clinton enjoys more support among the party establishment, it's unclear whether the superdelegates would deny the nomination to the candidate winning more pledged delegates; a potential disaster for the party, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1968 convention and perceptions of racism.
But just how many superdelegates does Obama need? That all depends on how the remainder of the pledged delegates turn out, and without further ado, I present my predictions. In making them, I have considered the fact that Obama has taken a 3:1 fundraising edge over Clinton in January, with the fact that most of his donors give less than $200, while her donors have already maxed out their legally allowed $4,600. Furthermore, her campaign confirmed today that the Clintons loaned her campaign $5 million of their own money; a sure sign that they are getting desperate in the money department.
February 9th:
Louisiana (primary, 56 delegates):
I see this one as shaping out very similar to other contests in the Deep South where Obama has done well. 51% of the electorate was black in 2004. Obama won Alabama yesterday by a slim margin, Georgia by a landslide, and South Carolina last week by a landslide.
My prediction: Obama 36, Clinton 20. (Obama +16)
Nebraska (caucus, 24 delegates):
I see this as similar to Kansas and North Dakota in terms of voter demographics (both Obama states that voted yesterday); additionally, caucus states have favored Obama this year with their more energized base.
My prediction: Obama 15, Clinton 9. (Obama +6)
Washington state (caucus, 78 delegates):
Obama has a 53-40 lead in a SUSA poll taken last week (the only firm that got California right yesterday) and it's a caucus state.
My prediction: Obama 43, Clinton 35. (Obama +8)
United States Virgin Islands (convention, 3 delegates):
My most important prediction regarding the US Virgin Islands is that no one will give a crap. With 3 delegates, one candidate would have to get 85% of the vote to take all three, so the vote will almost certainly be 2-1. I'm picking Clinton on the basis that she won American Samoa last night.
My prediction: Clinton 2, Obama 1. (Clinton +1)
February 10th:
Maine (caucus, 24 delegates):
No polling has been done here since October, when Clinton had a formidable lead, but despite the fact that it's a caucus state, I'm giving this one narrowly to Clinton because it's a rural Northeast state, and she has done very well in the Northeast.
My prediction: Clinton 14, Obama 10. (Clinton +4)
February 12th (the "Beltway Primary" or the "Potomac Primary"):
District of Columbia (primary, 15 delegates):
With an electorate that is almost 60% black and heavily urban, no one disputes that Obama will win DC - the only question is the margin. There's an outside probability that Clinton will fail to meet the 15% viability threshold and receive no delegates.
My prediction: Obama 11, Clinton 4 (Obama +7)
Maryland (primary, 70 delegates):
Maryland is about 25% black and 75% white, with almost no Latinos or Asians (the two racial groups that Clinton is convincingly winning). Obama leads 39-26 in a Baltimore Sun poll.
My prediction: Obama 38, Clinton 32. (Obama +6)
Virginia (primary, 83 delegates):
Virginia is another southern state, but it's not in the Deep South and its demographics favor Clinton more than SC, AL, or GA, where 50% of the electorate was black. It's more like 25% in VA. Gov. Kaine has endorsed Obama. This is also an open primary, favoring Obama.
My prediction: Obama 43, Clinton 40 (Obama +3)
February 19th:
Hawaii (caucus, 20 delegates):
There's been no polling done here, but Obama was born here and it's a caucus state.
My prediction: Obama 12, Clinton 8. (Obama +4)
Wisconsin (primary, 74 delegates):
No polling has been done since early December, when Clinton held a 13 point lead, but with the demographics in this state that are similar to Iowa and Minnesota, both Obama states, I think it'll be a lot closer. However, it is a primary, and I'm going to predict a Clinton win.
My prediction: Clinton 39, Obama 35 (Clinton +4)
Total: Obama 248, Clinton 199 (Obama +49), putting the totals at
Clinton ~1300
Obama ~1250
assuming no more superdelegates make up their minds between now and then.
These February contests account for 447 delegates. There will be 1,049 pledged delegates determined in the remainder of the season, from March 4th to June 7th. Obviously, my ability to predict these farther-away contests gets exponentially worse as how far away they are increases, since any measure I have now of their opinion will likely change before they actually hold any primaries as candidates campaign there and run TV ads.
March 4th:
Ohio (primary, 141 delegates):
Clinton leads by massive margins right now, but that will narrow as the race gets closer and Obama campaigns in the state - her leads now in states this far out are as irrelevant as her national poll leads were a month ago.
My prediction: Clinton 75, Obama 66 (Clinton +9)
Texas (primary/caucus hybrid, 193 delegates):
Lots of Latino voters, but it's a red state and has lots of black voters too. Currently Clinton's lead here is much more narrow than hers in Ohio and I'm giving this to Obama.
My prediction: Obama 110, Clinton 83 (Obama +27)
Vermont (primary, 15 delegates):
This state gave Dean his only primary win in 2004, and Dean won the same parts of NH that Obama did. I'm giving this liberal state to Obama.
My prediction: Obama 9, Clinton 6 (Obama +3)
Rhode Island (primary, 21 delegates):
This is a small Northeastern state where Clinton enjoys support from the local media, but has similar demographics to neighboring Connecticut, where Obama won narrowly yesterday. I'm giving this by a very slim margin to Clinton.
My prediction: Clinton 16, Obama 15 (Clinton +1)
March 4th totals: Obama 200, Clinton 180 (Obama +20)
March 8th:
Wyoming (caucus, 12 delegates):
This is a red state in the Mountain West and it's a caucus. It'll be an Obama landslide.
My prediction: Obama 9, Clinton 3 (Obama +6)
March 11th:
Mississippi (primary, 33 delegates):
Mississippi has similar demographics to the other Deep South states and it's a clear Obama win.
My prediction: Obama 20, Clinton 13 (Obama +7)
April 22nd:
Pennsylvania (primary, 151 delegates):
If Clinton lasts this long, this state is likely to turn out like New Jersey.
My prediction: Clinton 86, Obama 65 (Clinton +21)
May 3rd:
Guam (primary, 3 delegates):
I might as well predict this one with American Samoa too.
My prediction: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (Clinton +1)
May 6th:
Indiana (primary, 66 delegates):
Once we reach May, I'm really pulling these predictions out of my ass (imagine trying to predict today's primaries three months ago), but the fact that this is a red state with similar demographics to southern Illinois and Iowa, where Obama did well, plus the fact that its new, stringent photo ID laws are more likely to hurt Clinton supporters (poorer, less educated Democrats) I'm going to give this one narrowly to Obama.
My prediction: Obama 36, Clinton 30 (Obama +6)
North Carolina (primary, 91 delegates):
I'm going to have to predict this one in the Obama column along with neighboring Virginia and South Carolina - its demographics should be fairly friendly to Barack.
My prediction: Obama 50, Clinton 41 (Obama +11)
May 13th:
West Virginia (primary, 26 delegates):
I'm not really sure how to predict WV, but it has the sort of demographics that have favored Obama in other states, so I'm going to toss this one his way.
My prediction: Obama 14, Clinton 12 (Obama +2)
May 20th:
Kentucky (primary, 47 delegates):
Kentucky's electorate is only 10% black and I'm inclined to think it will go the way of Tennessee. It would have been a good Edwards prospect had he still been in the race.
My prediction: Clinton 27, Obama 20 (Clinton +7)
Oregon (primary, 48 delegates):
I think Obama will make up his Kentucky loss in this state - it has similar demographics to Washington, except with more well-educated white liberals, an Obama demographic, in Portland and Eugene.
My prediction: Obama 29, Clinton 19 (Obama +10)
June 3rd:
Montana (primary, 15 delegates):
Obama will probably win this Mountain West state like he did neighboring Idaho.
My prediction: Obama 9, Clinton 6 (Obama +3)
South Dakota (primary, 14 delegates):
Obama will win this like North Dakota and Kansas.
My prediction: Obama 9, Clinton 5 (Obama +4)
June 7th:
Puerto Rico (primary, 55 delegates):
I think, with its Hispanic population, Clinton is favored to win this final contest on June 7th.
My prediction: Clinton 35, Obama 20 (Clinton +15)
Total pledged delegates between February 9th and June 7th:
Obama 730, Clinton 652 (Obama +78)
This would bring the pledged delegates for the season up to about:
Obama 1648
Clinton 1569
That brings it all down to the superdelegates. There are 812 of them total. If my pledged numbers are right (which include rough guesses of Super Tuesday totals, since not all votes are counted yet), then Obama would need 377 (46%) of the superdelegates, while Clinton would need 456 (56%). These do not total to 100% because of Edwards' delegates.
Currently, Clinton has about 65% of superdelegates. Two questions remain; one, whether Obama will close the lead in superdelegates, and two, whether superdelegates will violate the will of the party voters to nominate Clinton. Of course, superdelegates can change their votes, and many may. I think as March goes into April, if neither candidate drops out, we'll start to see more focus and pressure on the superdelegates rather than the remaining primaries. Of course, Obama could win more delegates than I'm projecting and make superdelegates irrelevant, or allow him to lose them by a large margin, and I've already calculated the numbers he would need to accomplish that above.
Who will win the nomination? Ultimately I think the superdelegates will bow to party pressure and choose the candidate who won more pledged delegates; Obama. About 70% of them have not yet decided who to support, and I think the pressure to avoid a contested convention and possibly a repeat of 1968 would be huge, costing Clinton much of her establishment support. But who knows? It's all up in the air at this point, particularly the numbers beyond February.
That said, yes we can!