http://www.woodtv.com/...
The Democratic National Committee is pressuring Michigan and Florida to hold Democratic presidential caucuses so the delegates they've lost for holding January primaries could be seated at the national convention, a top Michigan Democrat said Wednesday.
DNC member Debbie Dingell said it's unclear whether either state would hold caucuses since they've already held primaries. But she said the DNC is asking the two states to consider such a plan.
My take? I could live with this, if it came to it.
Not saying that it's ideal, but there really are no "ideal" ways to settle this facet of the issue.
If Obama or Clinton ends up with a solid win (say, 2,300+ delegates), none of this matters--the FL/MI delegates would likely be at least seated (for appearances' sake--Dems United and all that) and that would be that.
If, however, the current stalemate continues with each coming within, say, 50 delegates of the nomination, the following possibilities could happen:
- The DNC sticks to the rules (as it technically should): Neither state is seated; Obama wins. This pisses off Hillary fans (for no legitimate reason--her campaign knew the rules and the penalties long before, and agreed to them right up until it no longer suited them), it pisses off a big chunk of Michigan and Florida voters (both swing states), making it more difficult for Obama to win in the general.
- The DNC caves and seats the FL/MI delegates; Hillary wins. This enrages the Obama campaign and supporters (as they should be, since it breaks the agreed-upon rules), it pisses off a different chunk of MI/FL voters, making it even more difficult for Clinton to win the general (I suspect that the black vote, in particular, would plummet to zilch in protest).
Now, fair is fair, and the DNC rules were VERY specific and explicit, and the campaigns had 8 friggin' months to cry about them (but didn't), and the MDP and FDP had 8 months to comply with them (but didn't even though they knew damned well what the penalty was), so I still think they should go with scenario #1 and just kiss MI/FL's asses bigtime through the general election (hey, that'd finally get us some of that extra attention that we wanted in the first place! brilliant!)
However, I can also see how just scrapping the whole thing and doing a "do-over" might be appropriate as well. It's down to a 2-person race; by the time the caucuses happened, both Clinton and Obama should have virtually equal name recognition, etc etc, so I suppose it could be considered a "fair" playing field. Not thrilled about it but I can see it happening.
UPDATE: Someone in the comments pointed out that this could cause a different problem: Would it be an open caucus in which Republicans/Indys could participate, or a closed caucus for registered Dems only? If it's closed, that would favor Clinton, if it's open it favors Obama...except that Republicans would be able to cross over by the millions and hose the whole thing (since their own primary is long since over). (Sigh)...
UPDATE #2: Vera Lofaro in the comments suggested going ahead with the do-overs in both states, with one caveat: ONLY the PLEDGED delegates would count, but NEITHER state would get any SUPERDELEGATES! I think this is brilliant for two reasons: First, it prevents any more mischief by the party big-shots (in either direction); second, it punishes the people who are ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE for fucking this thing up in the first place.
UPDATE #3: Oy. Several people have now pointed out that there's any number of legal challenges which might arise if these two states got a "do-over"--other state parties who didn't like their own results might complain; third-party organizations; state legislatures; etc...(sigh) Now I'm thinking that this could indeed cause even more confusion and anger: leave well enough alone, stick to the rules, don't seat the FL/MI delegates (unless it doesn't make any difference to the outcome), and deal with the fallout afterwards.
I dunno...maybe it's like bending a piece of metal back & forth, trying to straighten it out...sooner or later, all the bending is just gonna make it snap in two...
What a mess.