(Note: As of 8:45 AM ET 2.7.08, this diary is using THE latest numbers you will find anywhere on the internet; you will not find any more recent numbers than these which are not pure speculation.)
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Super Tuesday is over, but the counting still goes on, unfortunately (because it is so slow. It is, of course, a very good thing that all votes are counted properly).
Every 4th comment or so seems to be 'what is the delegate count?'
This diary is the answer to that question, and the title tells the tale, in a best-case scenario for Barack Obama.
I want to make this perfectly clear:
Barack Obama is on pace to lose the presidential nomination to our first female presidential nominee of either one of the two major parties, Hillary Clinton.
This is not a statement of opinion, but a statement of fact.
Let's get to the numbers.
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If the NBC 'best case BHO Super Tuesday (ST) scenario' comes true (849 BHO, 829 HRC {not counting either Am Samoa, Dems Abroad [Total = 10 delegates]}).
A. Super Delegates, from RealClearPolitics.com and CBSNews.com:
HRC: 211
BHO: 128
B. Early state delgs won:
HRC: 48
BHO: 63
C. Total 'A' + 'B':
HRC: 259 (211 + 48)
BHO: 191 (128 + 63)
D. NBC's BHO 'best case scenario' for ST (- 10 AM Sam, DA delgs):
HRC: 829
BHO: 849
E. Total 'C' + 'D':
HRC: 1088 (259 + 829)
BHO: 1040 (191 + 849)
F. + Hillary already won Am Samoa, 2-1
HRC: 1090
BHO: 1041
G. + If BHO shuts out HRC in the 7 delegates avail. from Dems. Abroad:
HRC: 1090
BHO: 1048
That is, Hillary would still be up by 42 delegates when Super Tuesday is all said and done, with all delegates considered (including superdelegates), IF everything goes BHO's way according to NBC and if BHO wins Dems Abroad 7-0.
Barack Obama, at best -- without either FLA or MI delegates considered -- trails by a minimum of 42 delegates, and he trails in the popular vote of all voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses so far during this nomination process. Not to mention how much he trails by in the popular vote if crossover GOPers and Indy popular votes are discounted.
Any way you slice it, HRC is still ahead, both in delegates and in the popular vote.
First one to 2,025 delegates wins (at least for now, with FLA and MI not counting). Clinton leads that race, and, as such, she is positioned to be our nominee.
Let no one spin you -- this is where we stand, right now, at this moment. Period.
And, remember, that's giving ALL the benefit of the doubt to Barack Obama.
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References:
RCP: Dem delegate totals
CBS News: Dem delegate totals
NBC: Super Tuesday delegate number prediction
ABC News: American Samoa Democratic Caucus page