It seems like a no-brainer. Mitt Romney drops out, McCain becomes the landslide frontrunner and offers Mike Huckabee a place on the GOP ticket for November, which the former Arkansas Governor happily accepts.
Except it's not playing out quite that way.
Whereas Republicans would normally gravitate towards a man of John McCain's experience and intelligence and dedication to our military, John McCain is NOT a conservative.
And to some, not all, but some Republicans, social conservatism trumps all. It trumps veteran experience, years in Congress, and close working relationships with GOP icons like Ronald Reagan. It's why George W. Bush received his party's nomination in 2000. He may not be the sharpest tack in the box, but no homosexuals are getting married on his watch.
Having two such opposite men as bass-playing, straight-talking, Bible-thumping Mike Huckabee and Washingtonian, tax cut-opposing, former POW John McCain racing for their party's nod is fantastic for Democrats. There are conservatives who would never vote for John McCain, and there are moderate Republicans who would never vote for a religious fanatic like Mike Huckabee. Only one man can win the nomination, which means, come November, some Republicans are going to be faced with the decision of supporting our guy or gal, or staying home.
Mike Huckabee's victory in Kansas today does not indicate his chances of winning the nomination are any better than they were yesterday. But the fact that he is still in this race is a great sign for us Democrats. Not simply because the GOP candidates are spending more money attacking (almost irritatingly cordially, by the way) each other. But because the slightest glimmer of viability that conservatives see in Huckabee's candidacy gives the conservative movement the hope it needs that their movement is not over.
One has to admit that, in all likelihood, McCain's campaign must have already made offers to Huckabee to get him to give up the race. Although you'd be hard pressed to find a person whose social views I disagree with more, it is a testament to Mike Huckabee, whose campaign chest before Iowa contained less coinage than a Wall Street exec's 401k, that he is still alive and kicking. John McCain calls his own movement the straight talk express, but when GOP voters ponder not only who they'd rather have a beer with, let alone share a pew with on Sunday, Huckabee's calm and collected demeanor and smooth, laid-back speech make McCain look washed out and rehearsed.
He's better than an articulate Bush. He's got a better sense of humor, and he's closer to God.
Conservatives who don't want to see their massive movement sputter out and die come November will open their hearts and wallets to Mike Huckabee so long as he continues to win in states like Kansas where Democrats threaten to turn the tide blue (don't forget, Obama's family is from Kansas, and residents of that state turned out in droves for him on Tuesday).
The GOP candidates are as different as light and day, and a drawn out race between them will cause a divide in the party that, regardless of who we Democrats nominate, cannot not be overcome.
I hear often that this is "our race to lose." But what's happening in the Republican party right now, this very hour, goes beyond this race. It has the power to divide one party into two. It has the power to confine Bible-thumping to churches, out our courtrooms.
Unlike most Democrats, conservative voters are forced to reconcile their political beliefs with their religious beliefs. In George W. Bush, there was no distinction. But THIS time, for GOP voters, we've reached a fork in the road, and there's no turning back.
For too long, Republicans have expected to have their cake and eat it too. Let them eat their cake. This isn't our race to lose. It's the twilight of the Republican party as we know it.