This is it; tonight is BHO's big night.
After tonight, there are only two more states whose demographics strongly favor BHO: Mississippi and North Carolina.
After tonight, there are only 4 more pure caucus states (with Texas having a caucus/primary hybrid model): Hawaii (20 delegates), Wyoming (12), Guam (4) and Puerto Rico (55 - in a contest which looks to soundly favor HRC).
Taking into account the pledged delegate tallies of the two states whose votes better count if Dems have any chance to compete in November -- Michigan and Florida -- Obama looks to be down around at least 40+ delegates, probably more, as we head into this evening's 3 contests.
Obama needs tonight, just as he has needed all of his current winning streak, to stay in the race. And surrogates such as Doug Wilder have gone to various media outlets such as CNN last night embarrassing themselves by repeating debunked myths about supposed 'racially insensitive' statements from the Clintons designed, one can only conclude, to drive up a high turnout in the 3 heavily AA contests tonight by sheer demagoguery, IMO.
This strategy began in earnest, it seems, the morning after BHO's stunning defeat in New Hampshire. That day saw Jesse Jackson, Jr. -- Obama's NATIONAL campaign co-chairman -- go on to MSNBC and try to impugn Hillary Clinton with AA voters by shamefully trying to 'analyze' her tears, and insinuating that Hillary did not care enough about the victims of Katrina, who were disproportionally African-American.
The next contest of the season when Jackson, Jr. made his remarks?
South Carolina, whose Dem primary electorate was 55% African-American according to exit polling.
After tonight, expect far less of Wilder's type of attacks. With Texas on the horizon, there will be more "Si, se puedes!" and less "fairy tale" mentions, at least until Mississippi and North Carolina are ready to vote.
It has been a cold, cynical campaign by Obama. But it has been effective by him, as exit polling has shown. We have come a long way since Michelle Obama's November, 2007 "black America will wake up" plea. At that time, Obama was still far, far behind the level of African-American voter support he currently enjoys.
So you have to say that the South Carolina Memo strategy has worked.
Tonight is Obama's last stand. If he has an overwhelming night, which is likely, he might -- might -- catch Senator Clinton in total delegates with Florida and Michigan factored in.
But make no mistake. As much as the Clinton haters in the MSM like Patrick Healy write about Clinton's supposed 'demise' (as Healy does in today's NYT), they are 100% incorrect. The truth is, Obama needed this string of victories just to stay competitive with Clinton. And, to his credit, he has gotten them.
Despite all ridiculously transparent calls for Clinton to 'step down, for the good of the Party' which are sure to follow tonight's contests, she is exactly where she needs to be: likely virtually tied with Obama after tonight and with her types of contests (primaries) and her types of demographically-favorable states on the horizon for the remainder of the race, with precious few exceptions for Obama.
So I say to the Obama partisans -- enjoy tonight. You and your candidate have worked hard to get here. Though I deplore the ethnically divisive tactics which have been employed by your side, I have to acknowledge their effectiveness. Had they not been used, the nomination almost certainly would have already been Clinton's.
You have managed to keep Obama afloat, and that is to be applauded.
Tonight is the start of the fall of Obama 2008. After the last polls close this evening, everything shifts dramatically in Hillary's favor.
So enjoy tonight. It is likely to be the highlight of Obama's campaign, and the closest he will come to the nomination which will eventually be earned by our first female Democratic nominee for President of the United States, the glass ceiling-shatterer, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
You go, girl! Next stop: A November showdown with John McCain. And then, The White House.