I'm not a Political Scientist.. but I have a background in Sociology and Anthropology. I don't do it for a living, but parts I remember.. this is just MY personal thoughts on why Hillary is having and going to continue to have a very hard time beating Obama.
Barack Obama is not just a politician..
He's become a symbol.
Now first off:
I don't think Obama thinks of himself this way. Nor do I subscribe to the "cult" meme.
However..
I do think that Obama has tapped into the VERY deep seated passion that the American public has for symbols.
We love symbols.. its why the Flag, the Statue of Liberty, the Freedom Bell.. all of those things are so important to us. We LOVE symbols, and the more we love them, the stronger negative reaction to anyone who we (as a society and group) feel has attacked our symbols.
Now I'm NOT putting Obama in the same "symbol class" as the Flag. But what I am saying is that for increasingly large chunks of the American public Obama has reached "symbol" status. This makes him VERY VERY hard to beat. Its an amazing feat in many ways. I think some politicians have come close, and failed to reach it.
Dean came close, but the combination of his personality and an unreceptive media killed him before he got to true "symbol" status. (Dean will be the first to admit, when he's attacked head on, he gets in people's faces, I remember him saying something almost exactly like that)
Hillary has to find a way to take Obama OUT of "symbol" status, and do it in a way that doesn't affect her in a negative fashion. That's a VERY tall order due to:
a) Obama's personality = He's a likable guy, comes across as personable, and even folks who don't agree with him on anything say he's a damn good orator. You can see it in the reactions of the crowds.. they LOVE him for better or worse. You know those old footage reels of the Beatles coming to America? I swear its approaching that level of devotion for SOME people.
b) Media = Anything that could be considered anywhere close to racist that comes out of anyone associated with the Clinton campaign (whether it is or not)is going to get picked up and magnified by the press.
c) Clinton-itis = Again, for better or worse, there is and always has been a lingering .. feeling about Hillary that isn't totally positive. Now I DON'T agree with it, and honestly its a totally created concoction by the right wing during the Clinton years, however the Clinton's have never been able to totally drive it away, and it.. lingers out there on the edge of folks perceptions, it hurts her.
d) Bush = I say this for ONE reason. Of the 2 Democratic candidates, on a PURELY superficial standpoint, I feel that Obama is farther away from Bush than Clinton is. Now Clinton isn't anywhere close to Bush. But Obama seems to be a bit father, and Democrats and drawn to that, because honestly.. all of us just want to get as far as hell away from the Bush years as quickly and as totally as we can.
Hillary has a VERY hard road to travel, and honestly.. I don't think she can pull it off unless Obama does something so monumentally stupid, so mind numbingly dumb that it "cracks" the symbol image around him.
I don't see that happening, Obama has run a VERY carefully run and VERY carefully orchestrated campaign.
Obama is now a "symbol" and Hillary can't do a damn thing about it.